Nzd.usd

[FTG]

Arco,

Yep good strategy!

Another mistake I made was going out for the night and not setting an alert for when a upside target had been hit. Then I would have raised my stop and locked in a no lose situation.

As I said - basic stuff. Entirely my fault for not being disciplined and keeping to my own trade management rules.

[bogus1]

hi all
update on chart looks very much like this pattern is in play initial 38 target 72.80 and then 61 target 67.60. possible bounce off march trend line at 76.40,or march 2005 high and april 2007 high at 74.80

[bogus1]

hi , having been having a look ichimoku indicator, a new one for me and very interesting. i would appreciate any comments on my interpretation.
on weekly the tenkan (magenta) & kijun (red) lines have provided very reliable support, looks as though tenkan under pressure which may bring kijun into play.
on daily chikou (brown) may come into play with a bounce of closing price

[bogus1]

CURRENCY
Review
> NZD: Trouble continued to stay with the NZD as it bounced only
briefly at 0.7733 before crashing through it in the European session
on Friday evening. USD fortunes were assisted by the better than
forecast Q2 GDP advanced release, although gains against the JPY
were limited in the lead up to their weekend upper house elections.
Outlook
> NZD: Support at 0.7575 next in the firing line
Having obliterated many of the recent support levels, the NZD is
likely to further investigate these during the week. IMM positioning
to the week ending 24th July continues to show increasing long
positions of NZD but does not take into account the severe rout
experienced from the post float high of 0.8110 created last week.

[bogus1]

NZD
Early in last week the NZD/USD recorded a fresh 25-year
high of 0.8110 (July 24), but then proceeded to fall. By
the time the week ended, the NZD/USD was about 4½
cents lower around 0.7650.
The NZD/USD was again pressured by fresh selling of
carry trade currencies on Friday. The stronger than
expected Q2 US data (printed at 3.4% vs. 3.2% forecast)
did little to soothe investors’ worries about the
deteriorating global credit markets. Indeed, the sharp
losses in US equity markets (S&P500 finished down
1.6%) triggered another bout of carry trade unwinding.
Hedge funds and model-driven accounts were heavy
sellers of NZD, and the NZD/JPY was knocked the cross
from around 93.00 to below 91.00.
It is worth noting, that the recent NZD selling has not
been limited to short-term speculative players. Over the
past few days, we have seen a mixture of real-money and
custodial accounts selling NZD. In addition, while
Japanese accounts have shown some appetite for NZD
on dips, so far this has failed to provide much of a floor
for the currency.
For the coming week, we suspect the NZD/USD will
continue to trade with a heavier bias. The global
backdrop of soft global equities, falling risk appetite and
general uncertainty around credit markets will keep carry
trade currencies vulnerable to further weakness.
The local data may also help keep the downward
pressure on the NZD/USD by reinforcing last week’s
message that we could be near the peak in the RBNZ’s
tightening cycle. Building consents and household credit
claims (both out Monday) are likely to provide the first
real signs of softening in NZ’s housing market following
the anecdotal hints of such. On Tuesday, we also have
the National Bank Business Outlook Survey where the
sharp drop seen in June is likely to be consolidated in
July.

[bogus1]

a question for you arco (the million dollar question),is this the big unwind or a healthy correction for a move to mid 80s, i would value your opinion,which may not be technically based.
i just have an uncanny feeling when the dust settles there may be some big flows back into the carry traders.
yes there may be some data coming out which will suggest some reduction in economic activity but in some respects the fundamentals are still the same. it reminds me of what i think was a currency concepts publication called the 'story of the dollar' in which one of the conclusions they reached, was that a cycle ended not on interest rate rises but interest rate cuts and way too much time and energy was spent on second guessing interest rate movements.
its all about rate differentials so on this cross its just widened ,read what you want into that.

[arco]

bo

Chartwise I would say from a harmonic perspective towards 8400 in not out of the question. I posted this chart on here a while back...............



Fundamentally I see no reason for the carry trade to vanish because the Japanese have got the bug now and are increasingly investing overseas, (which also weakens their currency).

rgds - arco

[Steve]

While I got the first drop after shorting last week, I actually closed my position at 78.45 after geeting out of bed on Friday morning thinking that I had done not to bad for a days work. While expecting some volatility, I wasn't expecting another 2c drop on Friday.

[Note for next time]Perhaps I should have just lowered my stop to lock in some profits and stayed in the game.[B)]

[FTG]

This is getting interesting!

Looks like we may be in for a turbulent night in all markets tonight. People are slowly waking up to the fact that sub prime issues in America WILL effect everyone on the planet. Classic example is the MBL announcements today. IMO another round of carry trade unwinding has started today. I'm back short again at 0.76, but with a relatively tight stop.

[Steve]

Are we going to see a 27% drop as predicted by Winston Peters?[?]