Nzd.usd

[peat]

short term breakout?

[Steve]

Hey Peat, do your references '49' & '50'have any significance?

[peat]

no Steve - no special significance they are just labels for the two lines.

Using my breakout signal would have needed about a 30 pip stop to generate useful profits. technically it failed as a breakout because it came back into the convergence area and even went above the top line before falling 50 pips.

[dumbass]

hey guys , it seems in forum change over my user name has changed to ,wait for it ........... DUMBASS oh yeah after speaking to my wife she says i should keep it . so without further a do my first post under dumbass following soon , regards trader formally known as bogus 1

[dumbass]

it does seem after fri session it seems like this move is for real , looking to find good short entry
received this from omf

Why look to short NZD/USD



Chart 1 is of the Dow Jones and the NZD/USD over the past month, the correlation is quite clear. In our view if we did not have the subprime woes and the jittery equity markets the NZD/USD would be 80 cents plus. But with the current level of uncertainty in the markets we feel that the Kiwi carry trade could really begin to come under pressure. In August, we have NZ$3.4 billion of Uridashi Maturities. If the current market volatility continues we may see some unwinding rather than reinvestment in the carry trade. In September, we have another NZ$1 billion maturing so the domino effect of an August unwind could add to the downward pressure on the kiwi. Adding to this, the option covers the below data, including the next RBNZ statement, which may confirm that the RBNZ has finished its tightening cycle. Considering the above, we foresee an opportunity to gain from a sharp fall in the kiwi dollar. Given the high level of volatility in the global marketplace, we believe that spot positions should be kept relatively small and actively traded, whilst using options to really leverage potential profits.



Potential market moving economic releases covered by the option.



09/8/07 NZ Unemployment 2nd qtr.

24/8/07 NZ Merchandise Trade July.

13/9/07 NZ Retail Sales July.

13/9/07 NZ RBNZ Monetary policy Statement.

14/9/07 NZ Manufacturing Survey 2nd qtr.

18/9/07 US FOMC Rate Decision.

19/9/07 US CPI August.

20/9/07 NZ Balance of Payments 2nd qtr.





Considering the above we feel the most prudent way to potentially profit in the current environment is via an option. In this case we are not throwing the kitchen sink at it but rather taking out an insurance policy should we wake up one morning to an equity market meltdown.



Option Details



NZD/USD Spot reference 0.7650



NZD/USD One touch

Touch Level 0.7000

Expiry 7 weeks (21st September, 3pm Tokyo)

Payout NZ$ 50,000

Cost 12% (NZ$ 6,000)



Minimum payout is NZ$20,000 (cost NZ$ 2,400) and then any NZ$ 10,000 (cost NZ$ 1,200) multiple thereafter.

[peat]

kiwi is compressing for over a week now. the band is now reduced to between 7650 and 7575. wait for a breakout. Mck says up to 77. I'd wait for a signal myself.

[peat]

Max got it right then . 7690 hit overnite and I would consider it an upside break out now.
[/URL]
Could of course be the sucker rally tho... heheh.

[TwinkleToes]

Hello, I am new to forex and recently bought some USD with NZD with no leverage. Just wondering what the leveraged options are out there? Have been in touch with CMCMarkets but that is all so far. Am looking to build up a short position in USD.NZD (ie. betting NZD will fall) with a 12 month view. Am getting about 4.5% on the USD so giving up about 3% on the interest rate differential.

Would be very grateful for any ideas on the above. Thank you.

[Steve]

I use CMC for fx and it has been no hassles so far...

[TwinkleToes]

Thanks, is there a better rate than 4.5% available on USD held in NZ bank foreign currency accounts? I got that from the BNZ.