Nzd.usd

[peat]

RBNZ leaves OCR unchanged at 8.25%
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will remain unchanged at 8.25 percent.
Governor Alan Bollard said “economic activity has occurred largely as outlined in the
September Monetary Policy Statement. Capacity pressures – particularly in the labour market
– remain significant, while the housing market has clearly slowed. A substantial income boost
is still expected to occur through 2008, as recent dairy price gains reach farmers.
Nevertheless, the outlook has changed somewhat due to recent developments. Oil prices,
which are nearly 30 percent higher than we assumed in September, and rapidly rising global
food prices are likely to result in headline inflation above 3 percent for much of next year. In
the medium term, despite ongoing fiscal surpluses, the likelihood of future personal tax cuts
adds to the inflation outlook.
There are considerable risks around our view. The price effects of the Government’s
proposed emissions trading scheme add upside risk to inflation. Global financial markets
remain unusually turbulent, posing significant downside risk for some of our key trading
partner economies.
Overall, inflationary pressures have increased, and interest rates are now likely to remain
around current levels for longer than previously thought. We believe that the current level of
the OCR remains consistent with future inflation outcomes of 1 to 3 percent on average over
the medium term, based on the information to hand at present.”

[dumbass]

nzd usd up and running again

id view this trade as pretty low risk , count valid untill 77.60 breached

short 76.99 sl 77.65 target 74.30

[arco]

Evening DB

Drop Leg Gartley 50-786 on the 4 hour adds fuel
to the fire IMO.............

arco

[arco]

No reversal signal appeared on the possible 4hr drop leg Gart, in fact is seems the previous bullish Gartley 382-618 from 26th Nov is still in play and could head off towards 112-127 of XA where it should find resistance approachng the bear flag upper channel line. This in turn will create a potential bearish Gart 50-786 from 31st Oct

Patience Grasshopper, patience.....

[dumbass]

i allways take it up the ass from the kiwi

****ing stupid little bird

[arco]

DB
For a bird that cant fly it did well last night.
Anyway, you should be able to reclaim your loss and gain more....... shortly.

Clearly the 'b' leg was not quite complete at that point shown on the last chart.....so we still await the confirmation of a reversal.

Kiwi could still give us the potential to grab upto 400 pips..........awaiting the signal

Hi All

Refer to chart in post 826.....

...............this is the continuation chart which shows if in the small blue Gartley (50-786) the 'b' leg is complete then there is the potential for a fall to the boxes below where we have a confluence of targets. 50% of the previous up wave (red Gartley) may be a point to look towards some support coming in. There could also be an element of support to break around .7560 where 2 old uptrend line merge.

After this event plays out expect the possibility of a reversal and a move further north IMO

rgds - arco

[peat]

perhaps soon?
line 89 is a duplicate of 88

[arco]

Evening Peat

Yes, an interesting time for NZD.

The small blue Gartley is still a possibility at 50/886,
but we are still awaiting reversal confirmation.

__________________________________________


REINZ Data just in shows strong housing activity in Nov with a record median house price at NZD352k - can't be encouraging for those looking for a rate cut by the RBNZ who already face inflationary pressure from the dairy boom, increasing energy and fuel costs and food inflation.

The market was expecting to see some confirmation of the anecdotal slow down in the housing sector from these numbers so this positive figure would add fuel to perceptions that we see the RBNZ on a tightening rather than easing bias - supportive of a stronger NZD.

FOMC meet tomorrow with a probable rate cut in the US of at least 25bps.

[dumbass]

hi peat , i guess one feasible outcome is an expanded flat taking the b wave to the

butterfly completion at 79.80

[arco]

Evening DB

Yes anythings possible, and with the FOMC meet tomorrow and a probable rate cut in the US of at least 25bps that widening yield could be supportive of a stronger NZD.