Nzd.usd

[peat]

Bank of America

buy kiwi but sell two days close below 75.27

Citigroup

sell kiwi but buy at 78.2

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...rld_currencies

[arco]

...... interesting Peat.

Heres my idea on a chart.......currently waiting for the
confirmation turnaround candle for a little long and 100 +/- pips.

(Then there could be a nice reversal short in 5 legs for 400-600 pips)
---------PTZ .7288.....or possibility of lower towards .7150

Just took a 100 pips on the EY - so off to a nice start this week so far.

GTA - arco

[arco]

At the moment we only have 3 major contributors to the Forex section.
The FX side would appear to be in serious decline.......

But what i find amazing is that 50 people have read this NZD thread since I posted last night but not one has even made a comment - good, bad or indifferent.

A forum suvives because of its contributers......

So lurkers.....if you find the forum helpful, interesting of even plain boring - it perhaps might be a good idea to make a contribution (however small) before the few remaining posters leave for good.

arco

[Steve]

So those who still talk of the NZD/USD climbing back to the 80s in the near term due to NZ retaining current interest rates and US dropping theirs, are possibly being over-optimistic?

[DoctorG]

I find it really interesting, but don't post because I don't know enough, I would love to be able to make a living trading on the foreign exchange market, and mayeven have enough mobney, but I don't have the knowledge really, yet!
It seems to me though the Kiwi will stay strong against the dollar for quite a while, isn't the dollar weak against nearly all currencies world wide?
Has'nt the US governement borrowed to the hilt, to pay for the war on Iraq, which is really an excuse for George w bush, to pay companies his mates own, heaps of money stolen from the US govt, and at the same time allow the price of oli to go hugely high, which again helps his oil mates from Texas.

[arco]

DoctorG

Welcome.

If you decide to trade currencies you can chose to work with the fundamental issues, or trade using charting techniques. I work on the latter and that suits my style perfectly.

Trust you will stay around and post any queries you have regarding the currencies. There are a number of fundamentally orientated people here that can perhaps give you more on those issues than I can, but I'm happy to answer any charty questions you may have.

rgds - arco

[peat]

Steve
this would be the 'fundamental' reason for the kiwi sell-off

As a result of investors' flight from risky assets, the New Zealand dollar's slide against the greenback accelerated to a four-month low today. From around US76c at yesterday's local close, the kiwi fell to US74.5c, shedding 6 per cent in value in just over a week.

the world scenario is blowing up a little bit with carry trades now being out of favour so yeh a bit of dumping going on.

[arco]

Steve

I'm probably not the best person to answer fundamentally,
so perhaps someone else can make a comment on that.

However,
have a gander at the Ichi chart......the Kumo support which
has held so long has been broken on the daily, with the weekly
already into the cloud.

rgds - arco

[lakedaemonian]

At the moment we only have 3 major contributors to the Forex section.
The FX side would appear to be in serious decline.......

But what i find amazing is that 50 people have read this NZD thread since I posted last night but not one has even made a comment - good, bad or indifferent.

A forum suvives because of its contributers......

So lurkers.....if you find the forum helpful, interesting of even plain boring - it perhaps might be a good idea to make a contribution (however small) before the few remaining posters leave for good.

arco

I've been sitting on the sidelines of FX forum for some time.

Not due to disinterest....just lack of quality input(on my part).

As I mentioned when I first joined this forum, I tend to invest with long-term fundamentals at my back in case a trade goes sour....unfortunately i'm finding it harder to understand the fundamentals.

the more I dig, the more confused I become.....

I don't know if it's a case of "analysis paralysis" or a case of realizing that the more I learn, the less I really know.

I've listened to compelling arguments that support both the substantial rise and substantial fall of the Kiwi against the greenback recently......Retaining or conservatively growing my purchasing power globally is my objective for the foreseeable future.....HOW to achieve that objective(from the FX angle) is yet to be determined!

[arco]

lakedaemonian

I have to admit I get pretty confused with all that fundi info out there,
so that why I stick to the charts. Better the devil you know ......

With charts you have a game plan..........with fundi's, it a case
of too many possibilities IMO

arco