Nzd.usd

[Nevl]

Trading very flat at the moment but am bullish on the Kiwi for the moment. Feeling bearish on the US at the moment but it is not falling very quickly. So i will be in for a long trade. Almost a US carry trade. Fundamentally the US will be under pressure for a while and interest rates may have another cut at the next fed meeting. The Kiwi interest rates are still may have 1 more upside.

[Steve]

the risk is well quantified FTG
the trade meets my criteria so....
I believe that announcement is not till 830 our time tomorrow - a 30 pip stop might be too tight when that happens.

7764 order now filled as well.
see how it goes.

Peat, without getting in to minute detail, could you please give a brief outline of your criteria?

[peat]

last week was just compression so could become more interesting when the range breaks.

[peat]

looking back over the last couple of weeks since my last post, the compression broke falsely twice in the first week , but last week clearly demonstrated its intentions. with a price gap on Monday and has reached the mid 82s (as suggested by Arco last November) and then decisively turned.

I'm trying to interpret the candles on the 27th and 28th (the third and second to last ones in the picture) and at first I thought a shooting star followed by a doji, hence bearish signs but upon further investigation a shooting star should close lower than it opened and my 27th candle is green not red
Also the 28th was a doji-ish (only 10 pips diff betw open and close) but altho technically that was actually a bullish dragonfly doji. Tho in general a doji represents indecision and a potential reversal - wasnt really going to reverse up from 82). So even in hindsight the signals were a bit cloudy.

[peat]

in the bigger long term tho - this graph is monthly - it seems that there should be a lot of support in the 70's (yes I know thats potentially a 1000 pips down) but this is a monthly perspective.
In late 1996 and early 1997 the .7 area was resistance and 9 years later (after going as low as .4) then in 2004 and 2005 .7 and .75 were resistance areas again. But we've decisively breached that area in the last year or two so they (the mid to low 70s) supposedley become support levels, and while they might be tested again , if they were to hold could point the way to even greater highs over the very long term.
These are my thoughts looking on a quiet Sunday afternoon - not really a trading strategy but stepping back a bit to see the big picture.

[Bilo]

in the bigger long term tho - this graph is monthly - it seems that there should be a lot of support in the 70's (yes I know thats potentially a 1000 pips down) but this is a monthly perspective.
In late 1996 and early 1997 the .7 area was resistance and 9 years later (after going as low as .4) then in 2004 and 2005 .7 and .75 were resistance areas again. But we've decisively breached that area in the last year or two so they (the mid to low 70s) supposedley become support levels, and while they might be tested again , if they were to hold could point the way to even greater highs over the very long term.
These are my thoughts looking on a quiet Sunday afternoon - not really a trading strategy but stepping back a bit to see the big picture.

It is sobering to think that the NZD/USD has gone from 0.4 to 0.8 in the past 7yrs!

No wonder I gave up trying to export while the domestic lads were doing it so easily...and then the labour government poured increased taxes and interest rates onto us...not only me I guess, you would have to had a considerable competitive advantage (or no USD exposure) to have survived a change of this magnitude over a short time like this.

[living2]

When will the market start pricing in a NZ interest rate drop?

[Steve]

When will the market start pricing in a NZ interest rate drop?

Mid-year? As rates are not expected to drop to near years-end?

[living2]

Is it not breaking 20 day MA now??

[Steve]

Is it not breaking 20 day MA now??

Currently half a cent above the 20MA on the daily...