Nzd.usd

[peat]

ah b.ugger Steve
yeh I was short last night too but closed out with a mere 30

events are dangerous times to be in the mkt.

[Steve]

The NZD has stabilised following the budget, waiting for the next RBNZ announcement to indicate how the future rate cuts have been delayed.

It is unlikely that any new highs will be threatened...

[roddy]

Hi Peat/DB

the kiwi is still contained in its down channel i have two shorts on the kiwi 7589 and 7571, sl 7619 looking for a first target of 7450 area, then 161 area maybe, think reasonable prob with 3 doiji and continuing negative data coming out

[roddy]

Hi ALL

Not quite the sell down i was looking for with GDP, i think the market had already factored it in exited at 7544 for a few pips banked!

[Bilo]

Hi ALL

Not quite the sell down i was looking for with GDP, i think the market had already factored it in exited at 7544 for a few pips banked!

i wondered if the big lads just decided to do it in their own time - late at night - it is Friday after all....

[Bilo]

Hi ALL

Not quite the sell down i was looking for with GDP, i think the market had already factored it in exited at 7544 for a few pips banked!

[FONT='Verdana','sans-serif']The New Zealand dollar rebounded today from an overnight slump despite soft GDP data.[/FONT]
In a counter-intuitive move the kiwi climbed against all currencies despite news the economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter.
ANZ chief dealer Murray Hindley said it was a classic short squeeze.
The data was no worse than economists' forecasts, and the selling after was mild, traders who had shorted the kiwi were squeezed.
Short traders sell a currency on expectation they can buy back cheaper when the exchange rate is lower.
The kiwi, which had opened on US75.57c, closed on US76.05c.
Against the aussie it ended on A79.35c from its A79.04c opening. It fell overnight to around A78.75c, the lowest level in nearly seven years.
The kiwi's rise was also in spite of a pounding equity markets around the world took, lead by Wall Street which plunged 3 per cent.
In recent times a fall in equities has led to a fall in the kiwi as traders flee risk.
Some economists believe the second quarter growth will be worse than the first but with that quarter almost over, the worst may be nearly over.
Westpac economist Dominick Stephens said "we've probably lived through the absolute worst of this recession.
"The third quarter should be not as bad as the second quarter. We do think the whole of 2008 is going to be a pretty sharp correction for people, particularly urban consumers."

I think the ANZ were very pleased with themselves!
Unfortunately NZ is in deep trouble, very sick we are. It is just that these (Australian Bank) economists keep looking backwards. There will be no productive sector left to recover by the time they agree that Bollard should drop the interest rates.

The ANZ may not have the last laugh...

[roddy]

HI Peat/DB,

I have been getting hammered lately on shorting the kiwi so just wondering whether this scenario might play out.What are your thoughts?

B AT .50 and D at .886 to make a bearish bat,the kiwi would have to brake out of its downtrend channel to achieve this scenario

[peat]

what time is the announcement today?

[dumbass]

9.00

im going to trade it , you having a punt

[peat]

ah yeh I see its on their website 9 am

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/0092224.html

I'll buy a small amount at 7460 but its tricky for me I'm walking to work at that time...