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07-01-2009, 08:35 AM
#981
So y'day I thought I put my hand to the challenging Kiwi... 4 trades of which the first two failed.
The first short was off a very small time frame gartley (not drawn) but got stopped only because I moved the stop down from its original placement above the green line.
The second long also failed but the final two longs off the gartley in green and yellow worked a treat while I slept.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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07-01-2009, 01:53 PM
#982
I ve also been keeping an eye in NZDUSD.
IT is bad news for NZ economy for USD weakness. Export is our only saviour. If our export sector gets hit and there is a drought, I would hate to see what will happen to the NZ economy.
Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.
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07-01-2009, 03:24 PM
#983
Not that I take much notice of polls, but spotted this today on Stuff
A recent Reuters poll put the kiwi weakening toward US52c-US53c in the first part of 2009.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4811020a13.html
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07-01-2009, 07:19 PM
#984
 Originally Posted by peat
So y'day I thought I put my hand to the challenging Kiwi... 4 trades of which the first two failed.
The first short was off a very small time frame gartley (not drawn) but got stopped only because I moved the stop down from its original placement above the green line.
The second long also failed but the final two longs off the gartley in green and yellow worked a treat while I slept.
time to change direction again and go short as we bounce off the 78% retracement of the high at just below .61 stop could conservatively be placed just above .60 (the recent high) but the rules say 61 (X).
strange that the gartley in the previous trade was misshapen in the same way that this one on the bigger time frame (1 hour) is with normal XA but an extended AB. could mean somethings wrong so I'm not recommending this trade to others but I'm doing it. risking last nights spoils.
sorry about the quotes in the pic... having a few display problems
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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07-01-2009, 08:44 PM
#985
Originally Posted by Dr_Who
I ve also been keeping an eye in NZDUSD.
IT is bad news for NZ economy for USD weakness. Export is our only saviour. If our export sector gets hit and there is a drought, I would hate to see what will happen to the NZ economy.
Good thing we have a currency trader as PM right? No, seriously!
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08-01-2009, 07:52 AM
#986
Originally Posted by Aussie
Good thing we have a currency trader as PM right? No, seriously!
a few weeks back he predicted NZD to be below 50 cents when NZD was at 56 cents and now it is near 60 cents. Seriously, he would have made a lost if he was long. 
Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.
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08-01-2009, 08:34 AM
#987
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08-01-2009, 08:58 AM
#988
trade on post #985 looking to start the payback now after testing .6040 (so a conservative stop would have been hit - as I said its best to play with the proper rules). Another thing to notice is that there was a 78% retracement of the spike up and perhaps another way of trading this is to wait for that and then sell at that level OR to wait for the C wave of that bit to go lower than the A wave and sell there...
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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08-01-2009, 09:57 AM
#989
Would have been a nice short at 60 cents. I was close to shorting it, but decided not to after talking to a friend. 
Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.
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08-01-2009, 10:52 AM
#990
Originally Posted by Dr_Who
a few weeks back he predicted NZD to be below 50 cents when NZD was at 56 cents and now it is near 60 cents. Seriously, he would have made a lost if he was long.
You are right about that. I don't think a lot of people take the USD problems seriously. Obama just announced that the US is likely to run $ Trillion deficits for many years to come . . . that sounds pretty dollar negative to me.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/us...a.html?_r=2&hp
Last edited by Aussie; 08-01-2009 at 10:56 AM.
Reason: Added link
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