Danish commentary

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http://rapidshare.de/files/10736081/...2-UK1.pdf.html

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i've gone long Eur vs NOK and SEK in my demo system last night
currently +173 and -64

hope you can get the posted file above....

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these are going strong still !! there was some inflation figures released re the NOK which pushed it up a few hundred quite quickly

lots of pips , tho not that many actual $$$

might wait for a 2 hour crossover on the std paramter MACD to sell them.

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quote: Christina Andersen (Jyske Bank)

Yesterday, the Norwegian consumer prices came out below
expectations, leaving the key CPI (CPI- ATE, adjusted for tax
changes and energy) at 0.9 percent year/year. As a
consequence, EUR/NOK jumped almost 7 big figures higher in
Europe, New York and Far East, and the currency pair has
tested 801.50 as the highest. Further more, the Norwegian rates
fell approximately 10 basis points across the rate curve.
No doubt, this was a nice surprise regarding our bought
position in EUR/NOK. However, also EUR/SEK benefited, as
the Scandinavian neighbour, as well, ran against a brick wall,
and fell after the release of the Norwegian CPI figures. Now, it
will be interesting to see, whether or not the Swedish inflation
actually on Thursday will show the same picture.
This move higher in both EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK, has been a
healthy correction if you consider the two crosses latest flirting
in extremely overbought territory. We still expect more to come
in the ongoing correction, and will await a test higher in both
EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK before we intend to take profit in
our bought positions. In EUR/NOK, we expect to see a test
towards the area around 805, and in EUR/SEK the level around
940/942 is haunting on the topside. In our opinion, a test
towards these levels in the two currency pairs should be used
to buy the Scandinavian power again. Conclusion, stick with
sold positions in both NOK and SEK a while longer, and be
prepared to re-enter bought positions.

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out now on both...
868 pips on the NOK
tho only 82 on the SEK (a bit disappointing as it did get up to 300)

doesnt amount to much $ tho

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No doubt about it. Maket sentiment is clearly bearish on the
dollar in general as market participants eagerly try to pinpoint
all the fundamental weaknesses and the unsustainability of the
imbalance situation in the US. All good and right - but question
is still, whether or not now is the time for a shift of scenario on
the dollar? Well - technically the dollar continues to be oversold
right now, hence further downside momentum from the
present levels seems less likely. The recent frenzy on gold,
which by many is being interpreted as a loss of faith in paper
money and the dollar in particular, has led to overbought levels
not seen for many years. So a needed correction on gold could
easily go hand in hand with renewed strength on the dollar, as
panic gold buying is running out of steam. A look at the
interest rates in the US shows a jump higher on long-term
yields, which in the long run should continue to underpin a
stronger USD at least as long as the FED stays on their higher
rate course. And that's exactly the juncture of the dollar p.t. The
dollar sellers take it that the FED is done raising rates and the
few dollar buyers left take it that they are not. Whoever ends
up being right, the present rate level in the US is still so high
that selling the dollar could turn into an expensive experience,
unless of course the slide in the dollar is going to be
overwhelming. EUR/USD wise I continue to favour selling
EUR/USD at the present levels with stop loss at 124 and first
target around 118. I know it's like playing with fire as
EUR/USD is approaching our trend indicator at 121.77, but
hopefully "bravery" will be rewarded.

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quote:A day like today - Martin Luther King Day - must be the day to
tell about my fx-"dream" (you might call it scenario) for 2006. A
dream that apparently is a "slow starter". The first remarkable
move on the dollar in general was down. A move that suited
most market participants with their USD-bearish hearts and
minds very well. The last week has, however, revealed a dollar
stuck between a rock and a hard place. At times like these it is
though very important to stick with your dreams/chosen
scenario in order not to get confused. Expected hawkish FEDtunes
are the main ingredients of my overall dollar-bullish
dream this year. A market surprised by further FED-rate hikes
will - the hard/expensive way - be forced into dollar-buying
once this deadlock will be over and done with. The back-andforth
trading the last couple of days is nevertheless not to be
ignored, as it reveals a market split in two. One side sharing
our dream of a higher dollar backed by high interest rates, and
the other side longing to "slam" the dollar as punishment for
the huge imbalances in the US. Hence the present levels are
really important - however dull they may seem - as everybody
is waiting for the dollar to take direction again. Once this
happens either in case of a definite break of 119.50-120.00 or
122.00-124.00 market participants will be scrambling to join the
new rush higher or continued slide on the dollar. Everybody is
having itchy fingers, all nervous not to catch the next big move.
Everybody wants to get off well at the start of the year. Takes of
steam - you see. Thus until proven otherwise I stick with my
dollar-positive dream, hoping it won't turn into a new dollarnightmare.

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http://rapidshare.de/files/11176610/...2-UK1.pdf.html

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quote:
Looking at the financial market behaviour the last couple of
trading days makes me wonder if a special mixed stew is
actually cooking right now. Remarkable slides in commodity
prices right out of the blue, shaky equity markets, and a dollar
holding on to recently captured high levels in general.
Should our original thought of shrinking global liquidity finally
be slipping its way into the financial marketplace? Our thesis
being that less global liquidity will stirr violent financial waves
as volatility will rise abundantly. In that case the dollar in
general will come out the winner in the first round mostly
because of its reserve currency status. Such a development
would certainly astonish large parts of the fx-community, as
many traders still prefer causuality before seemingly
irrationality, probably causing a renewed rush into USD.
Thereby fuelling further - for many - unexpected strength. The
recent drop in the commodity currencies is primarily being
linked to the behaviour of the nervous commodity markets,
whereas we see it as consequence of the pursued monetary
policy and not least the expected change of the former. As far as
the rather hectic moves the last couple of days in USD/JPY are
concerned, lots of rumours of a potential change of the
monetary policy by BoJ are doing the rounds, which we,
however, do not expect yet. Bottomline being that the dollar
will have further to go against both the commodity currencies
and not least the JPY. Acually, we might not have seen
anything yet in currency market. The financial mixed stew is
cooking for real right now, and the smell is not that mouthwatering
as it could have been.

quote:* BoE is out today, hence holding the upperhand in
GBP for now. We do not expect any cut today, so
selling EUR/GBP at the present level or an eventual
spike higher still remains our preferred scenario.

quote:The drop in USD/JPY is
opening up for new
attractive buy levels around
117.50-118.00. I continue
favoring a revisit with the
old top around 121.40. The
USD/JPY rally is not over
yet - despite the fact that
many strategists predict
exactly that right now.

quote:This week could turn out to be the week where we
finally get a trend of substance in the fx-market. A
well-established dollar bullish trend could very well
be in the making.

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quote:
Currency traders in particular have jumped the trenches up till
today's first real public appearance of Mr. Ben Bernanke - also
known as Gentle Ben. The newly appointed central bank
governor is going to appear before congress today and
tomorrow and deliver his economic state of the union speech.
All of a sudden market participants doubt whether or not they
have been running ahead of themselves in their present search
for US yield and not least the dollar. All eyes and ears will
therefore be directed towards even the slightest hint of a
temporary halt to the present restrictive policy or a continued
pursuit of the same. Whatever the outcome of the upcoming
speeches you can rest assured that Gentle Ben will be blamed.
Overall it will nevertheless be exciting to see/hear Bernanke on
the line. Especially the fx-trading community has had its doubts
that Bernanke will be the one to secure the value of the USD.
His remark (some say slip of the tongue) about eventually
dropping dollar bills from helicopters in order to fight deflation
- should any one occur on the economic horizon - is hard to
forget among fx-traders, who normally are not used to remarks
like this from neither central bank governors nor central bank
governors to be. Some say that Ben Bernanke could only
reassure them of his capability of securing the value of the
dollar by stating today that all American helicopters have been
grounded and the pilots have been dismissed. That's probably
the only thing we can count on he is not going to say today and
tomorrow. The USD in general might be shattered a bit the
coming days, but we see no further potential than to 120-121
against the EUR, before it will start to climb towards new highs

quote:* EUR/NOK is beginning to look toppish just below
our good resistance area at 815 as is EUR/SEK
around 932. An eventual weakening of the dollar in
the wake of Bernanke will undoubtedly put
pressure on both crosses.