AUD.USD

[dumbass]

this uptrend is in the final stages and therefore warrants caution. im out of my long and now setting up a scalping short but as i said before the better trade will be a longer term short when the uptrend completes.
thats the principle of the carry trade but to compensate for the interest diffential in shorting the doorway can get pretty narrow and should see some explosive moves.

1.07 broken 1.0580 next test for a minimum target to the downside

[Pumice]

I hope you're right DA!

I'm short mostly NZD and a bit of EUR, but have been holding for months.

[Pumice]

Eurozone GDP -.3% in Q4 & The IIF has said it stands to lose EUR 1trl on a Greek default. Definitely not helping market sentiment.

Awesome for those of us who are short risk.

[dumbass]

next port in a storm 1.0460 , should help the balance a bit pumice.

[Pumice]

Thanks DA, the NAV is certainly looking a lot healthier these days.
Oddly my TRY/JPY trade is doing really well, I thought this would have pulled back a lot stronger than it has.
Are you trading anything else other than the Aussie?

[dumbass]

I have my usual aud usd x 2 short , nzd usd short , short light crude , short gold , long usd

If you are trading it closely i will post a chart on the aud direction, if it drops straight to 10450 then

care must be exercised as price may bounce , if it breaks 10375 then top is confirmed and i will

short the bejesus out of the aud.

[dumbass]

I have my usual aud usd x 2 short , nzd usd short , short light crude , short gold , long usd

If you are trading it closely i will post a chart on the aud direction, if it drops straight to 10450 then

care must be exercised as price may bounce , if it breaks 10375 then top is confirmed and i will

short the bejesus out of the aud.

All targets fired for bumper pips on the above trades,the only one i got stopped on was a short on sp500 but the risk was very low.

i would expect some consolidation from this level on the aud , if it is to rally it will be from around this level, will explore from the long side if price bottoms in the next few days.

[Pumice]

A bit of a rally going on at the moment.
seems a bit odd, given the Greek debt swap vote is coming up in the next 24 hours.

A chart would be appreciated DA.

[dumbass]

hey pumice, i am still expecting a significant downtrend in the aud to take the currency to below 90 against the usd in the medium term.

fundamentals will eventually weigh against the aud , this week we have had a benign RBA, GDP about half of expectations, pretty poor employment data ,weakening china GDP etc

yet the aud holds up but this highlights only that the aud is fuelled by risk appetite rather than than economic realities but for how long.

there is a possibilty the top is in and we would have to see 1.0380 taken out to confirm this, i am currently holding my double short position from 1.0720 and 10750 stop at 1.0710 with target at 1.0460 .

interesting divergence on friday between the usd and equity market

i have taken a heavy short on SP500 at close on friday as the risk reward on this trade is fantastic.

should be an interesting week.

still my preferred count is for a final run to 1.10 but positioned to be wrong if the top is already in.

[Pumice]

Playing out nicely DA.
Hopefully this is the start of a long term downtrend in the AUD and NZD.