AUD.USD

[Steve]

Has just tried to break above 7200 for the 3rd day (mon,thurs,fri) this week and may be failing again. If so, any thoughts on where to from here? Back down to 7050?

[Steve]

It actually broke thru 7200 on opening this morning. If it holds above 7200, it still needs to get above 7270 to kick on...

[peat]

The July issue of Currency Trader Magazine is out.

There is an article about the Aussie and Kiwi currencies and it says

"Where do the Aussie and kiwi dollars stand now? Both currencies entered consolidations after their early-June highs, and some analysts speculate the currencies may have overshot to the upside and are due for a modest correction in the near-term. Market watchers also cite rumors the RBA has been active in the market in a way that could influence the Aussie dollar’s near-term direction. “There’s a lot of talk that the RBA was in the market above the 0.8000 level, selling Australian dollars vs. the U.S,” says Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com.

“The RBA has been scaling up its sales of Aussie dollar in order to lift its FX reserves,” says Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac Institutional Bank. “It’s a handy signal for long-term players, since the RBA’s average levels where it buys AUD/USD are a lot lower than where it sells. They were good size sellers in May (

AU$15 billion). The message for markets, semi-hidden though it is, is that if the RBA regards the low 0.8000s as a cheap level to buy U.S. dollars, perhaps it’s on to something and maybe 0.7000 will trade before 0.9000.”

In the short term, “both the Aussie and New Zealand dollar
remain highly correlated to global risk sentiment and the
China view,”

[arco]

Possibility ? Hard to know exactly where the reversal sout might happen, but looks like a potential opportunity.

DB mightbe able to give us an EW count?

[peat]

max reckons .86 so hes in pretty close agreement with your projected chart arco.
not hard to see that 5 waves up on your chart either (with the projection included) .... tho I am not sure that we are meant to see 5 waves

[arco]

max reckons .86 so hes in pretty close agreement with your projected chart arco.
not hard to see that 5 waves up on your chart either (with the projection included) .... tho I am not sure that we are meant to see 5 waves

Yes, I'll have to check to see if there are any possibly irregularities on B waves. DB might assist.

[arco]

This B wave looks vaguely similar

http://www.market-harmonics.com/elliott_wave1.htm

[peat]

oh dear
arco
what are you saying !!

I've been reading the EWI stuff I've subscribed to last week over the weekend and I've now asked the girl to hide all the sharp instruments in the house as I am starting to feel a bit suicidal.
They really are super bearish and subscribe to the 'Its All One Market' theory (including gold , tho they do admit it may hold up better than other commodities), so theres nowhere to hide except cash.

[peat]

looks like a hammer about to form. already have a big position from .79

[peat]

kept adding in to the retracement tonight , now starting to pay off.