AUD.USD

[dumbass]

AUD has been the star performer against all currencies as the risk trade is well and truly back on.

1.20 seems to be the new target against the usd.

im not so bullish and expect it will crash down to earth long before it gets near 1.20

the chart suggests possibly one more wave up to around 1.10 region then an aggresive fall may occurr.

i have a short position on and i may look to go long if channel support holds but the real goal is a long term short position from higher up.

if this correction gains traction then i will scale more shorts in, 1.04 key.

[dumbass]

aud should now be on the final run up to complete this uptrend .

long from 1.0680 needs to stay above 1.0650 to maitain bullish bias target into 1.10 and above.

then will look for a short entry.

[Pumice]

Half way there DA.
Good call.

How long can this risk rally last?
$1.08 has got to be hurting the Aus economy. I'd love to take a LT short, but its just to expensive at 4.4-4.5%

[dumbass]

this uptrend is in the final stages and therefore warrants caution. im out of my long and now setting up a scalping short but as i said before the better trade will be a longer term short when the uptrend completes.
thats the principle of the carry trade but to compensate for the interest diffential in shorting the doorway can get pretty narrow and should see some explosive moves.

[Pumice]

this uptrend is in the final stages and therefore warrants caution. im out of my long and now setting up a scalping short but as i said before the better trade will be a longer term short when the uptrend completes.
thats the principle of the carry trade but to compensate for the interest diffential in shorting the doorway can get pretty narrow and should see some explosive moves.

I think you are right.
FED plosser is also calling for a rate hike, that would dramarically change things.

Why do you prfer the AUD instead of the NZD for a short?
The carry on the NZD is a hell of a lot cheaper. I would have thought it would be more vulnerable than the AUD as well.

[dumbass]

they pretty much dance to the same tune , if i'm full in i play 3 full short positions with a bias to the cross that i feel may be weaker.

currently the aud is in a downtrend against the kiwi so i will short two aud usd positions to one nzd usd short, if you get my drift.

this is the most tricky area when a currency is turning and therefore extreme caution is warranted , the minimum requirement is in place but i feel there may

be a little more upward momentum to work off , so patience is required.

[dumbass]

this uptrend is in the final stages and therefore warrants caution. im out of my long and now setting up a scalping short but as i said before the better trade will be a longer term short when the uptrend completes.
thats the principle of the carry trade but to compensate for the interest diffential in shorting the doorway can get pretty narrow and should see some explosive moves.

1.07 broken 1.0580 next test for a minimum target to the downside

[Pumice]

I hope you're right DA!

I'm short mostly NZD and a bit of EUR, but have been holding for months.

[Pumice]

Eurozone GDP -.3% in Q4 & The IIF has said it stands to lose EUR 1trl on a Greek default. Definitely not helping market sentiment.

Awesome for those of us who are short risk.

[dumbass]

next port in a storm 1.0460 , should help the balance a bit pumice.