AUD.USD

[AMR]

Gosh, I could have been 300 pips up had I held on. My great entries but poor exits are making it quite tricky...might be time to try use my sharetrading strategies on this rather than my short-term futures scalping ones. Now I know how Cujodog feels

[Packersoldkidney]

Fundamentally we are overdue a rally in the US $ - and I'm not talking about recent comments made by Bernanke that have seen the US $ stage a small rally - I'm talking over the medium term. In the next year, IMO, the US $ will surge, and those things that act as counterweights to the US $ will fall.

[macduffy]

Fundamentally we are overdue a rally in the US $ - and I'm not talking about recent comments made by Bernanke that have seen the US $ stage a small rally - I'm talking over the medium term. In the next year, IMO, the US $ will surge, and those things that act as counterweights to the US $ will fall.

Hi Psk - May I call you that?
What do you see as the catalysts for a medium term rally in the USD?
I imagine that interest rates will turn up but it will also need an improvement in the bop and in consumer confidence, amongst other things? Or are we looking at a comparative decline in the fortunes of other major economies as the trigger?

Cheers

[Packersoldkidney]

Hi Psk - May I call you that?
What do you see as the catalysts for a medium term rally in the USD?
I imagine that interest rates will turn up but it will also need an improvement in the bop and in consumer confidence, amongst other things? Or are we looking at a comparative decline in the fortunes of other major economies as the trigger?

Cheers

You can call me anything, just don't call me That.

Europe has yet to see the effects of the sub-prime/credit crunch - they will though - I expect Europe, economically to be comparitively weak compared to other places on the globe. This will affect the Euro - which is the US $ major competitor in terms of a currency.

Deflation has already arrived in real-estate and in stock markets - and it looks as if it is affecting gold now as well. Gold is a leading indicator for where oil is about to go. With the air out of the commodities bubble that will leave a lot of money with no place to go - and in the current recessionary environment that means Cash is King.

Fundamentally the US $ is looking good, in terms of future expectations the US Fed will choose to fight inflation over keeping a 'stronger' economy - just as they have done in every other recession in living memory: meaning higher interest rates. Other economies around the world have just about reached the end of their interest rate raising cycles - the US Fed hasn't even started its yet. And it will have to start, because elsewise it is putting its hands up and saying: "these high prices, and especially high oil prices, are here to stay", which clearly it can't, and wont, do.

It was the Fed that really started the commodities bubble by allowing an easy carry trade, and now it is going to have to go in the other direction - bump interest rates up, in which case the US $ will follow.

I think we are about to enter a deflationary period, with the best asset class being cash, and you can't get better legal tender around the globe better than the US $.

[slam]

You can call me anything, just don't call me That.

......This will affect the Euro - which is the US $ major competitor in terms of a currency.


.........and you can't get better legal tender around the globe better than the US $.

Hi Packers
YEN in both cases imo
This will keep pressure on the US and I think will be the next big mover in currency


Just a thought :O)

Cheers
Slam

[dumbass]

aud starting to look toppy

theres a lot of fib levels around 98 50 - 98 70

still believe it will have crack at 1 but maybe time for a rest

looking to short from confirmed entry at break of upper trendline

[roddy]

Hi All

have a tentative long on this one,as hrly is bouncing off.9285
long at .9327 with a stop below .9300

[arco]

HI Roddy

Yes certainly worth watching for the turnaround / reversal pattern
to appear

rgds - arco

[speres]

hey people, first post. Certainly don't like calling those bottoms especially on a down trend like this one.....

[arco]

Welcome speres


Idea is don't try to catch the falling knife - just wait for
a confirming reversal before committing.

rgds - arco