AUD.USD

[peat]

Elliotwave.com are offering free currency week this week. all their intraday releases etc are available till the 27th. any technical traders should really check this out.
For this particular cross jim martens has been sceptical of the recovery and believes all the risk is to the downside with support at 8592

AUDUSD (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 22 2008 11:58AM ET / Aug 22 2008 3:58PM GMT
Last Price: .8687

[Lower, to below .8592]
Key levels: 0.8813


No change here as I can't overlook the corrective nature of the recovery from .8592 to just above .8800 and the impulsive nature of the subsequent fall. The low remains vulnerable.

Repeat:

I've been skeptical of the recovery in AUD$ since last week when the initial leg of the rise unfolded in a corrective manner. Looking at the chart you can see that when measured from the low extreme of the proposed triangle correction the two upward legs of the recovery are equal. From a pattern and measurement perspective I believe the recovery from .8592 is 1) corrective and 2) likely complete.

So the risk is to the downside. Shorter term still, the decline from .8813 looks like it will unfold in five waves. Three waves are clearly visible. Expect a fourth wave correction/consolidation in wave four followed by a fifth wave. Expect AUD$ to remain under pressure.

Jim Martens

[arco]

Peat

Thanks for the info on Elliotwave.com

I joined up for the free trial and my user-name is recognised on the home page, but I cant
seem to find the link to the free forecasts. Can you tell me where you go.
(I seem to have tried every page without success).

Thanks

arco

[peat]

i floundered for a while too

if you're already logged on this link should work

http://www.elliottwave.com/subscribe...aspx?view=subs

you're looking for this

[arco]

Thanks Peat

Still a problem......I'm logged in but I get this under subscribers.

[arco]

Ok ....re-booted the computer and its working (for now

Thanks Peat.

[Bilo]

Elliotwave.com are offering free currency week this week. all their intraday releases etc are available till the 27th. any technical traders should really check this out.
For this particular cross jim martens has been sceptical of the recovery and believes all the risk is to the downside with support at 8592

AUDUSD (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 22 2008 11:58AM ET / Aug 22 2008 3:58PM GMT
Last Price: .8687

[Lower, to below .8592]
Key levels: 0.8813


No change here as I can't overlook the corrective nature of the recovery from .8592 to just above .8800 and the impulsive nature of the subsequent fall. The low remains vulnerable.

Repeat:

I've been skeptical of the recovery in AUD$ since last week when the initial leg of the rise unfolded in a corrective manner. Looking at the chart you can see that when measured from the low extreme of the proposed triangle correction the two upward legs of the recovery are equal. From a pattern and measurement perspective I believe the recovery from .8592 is 1) corrective and 2) likely complete.

So the risk is to the downside. Shorter term still, the decline from .8813 looks like it will unfold in five waves. Three waves are clearly visible. Expect a fourth wave correction/consolidation in wave four followed by a fifth wave. Expect AUD$ to remain under pressure.

Jim Martens

Now below .86 where now?

[arco]

Bilo

Please refer to post #80 where I mentioned

"There could be some support coming in around 8576 (Jan low)"

I think we need to wait to see how the action responds to this old support. If the polarity changes - watch out below.

arco

[Bilo]

Bilo

Please refer to post #80 where I mentioned

"There could be some support coming in around 8576 (Jan low)"

I think we need to wait to see how the action responds to this old support. If the polarity changes - watch out below.

arco

Thanks arco, it has been following the EUR/USD a bit lately and if is that a head and shoulder that I see on the weekly maybe the call is for more rapid south....

[Bilo]

Bilo

Please refer to post #80 where I mentioned

"There could be some support coming in around 8576 (Jan low)"

I think we need to wait to see how the action responds to this old support. If the polarity changes - watch out below.

arco

Bloomberg today:

Australia's dollar slid toward a four-month low and New Zealand's dollar fell to its lowest in more than a week versus the yen on speculation American International Group Inc. will post a loss, spurring investors to reduce so-called carry trades. The Australian dollar dropped to its lowest in seven months against the U.S. currency on prospects the nation's central bank will cut interest rates from a 12-year high next week.
``I'm concerned the Australian dollar can't bounce from here and we have more downside to come,'' said Paul Milton, chief foreign-exchange dealer at Societe Generale SA in Sydney. ``The fundamental picture is looking shaky for the Australian dollar and we're staring at rate cuts.''
The Australian dollar fell 1.6 percent, the most since Aug. 13, to 93.83 yen as of 10:26 a.m. in Sydney, from 95.34 yen late in Asia yesterday. The currency, known as the Aussie, reached 93.57 yen, near the 93.15 yen low on Aug. 13, the weakest level since April 15.
The Aussie dropped 1.2 percent to 85.76 U.S. cents from 86.85 cents. It reached 85.64 cents, the weakest since Jan. 23. It will slide toward 83 cents in the next few weeks, Milton said.

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Update For: August 8
Posted On: Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:56:20 GMT
AUDUSD
Last Price: .8801
Support: .8710, .8650, .8590, .7950
Resistance: .8850, .8950, .9075, .9370

The recent plunge offers evidence a top is in place. A recovery in three waves might offer a whale of an opportunity.

Repeat:

The advance from .4776 looks corrective and is well into the target area for a correction. First, it has exceeded the upper end of the prior fourth wave. Second, the rise has pushed into the Fibo target area. But that does not mean the rally is complete. But I do believe it is maturing.

The next set of targets lie in the .9840-1.00 area