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  1. #1
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    Default RBD - Restaurant Brands

    RBD has got to be the share with the most threads on ShareTrader! Eventually they all seem to degenerate into pointless arguments, so a new one starts...

    So...starting yet again...

    The trading in RBD seems to have been very odd in the last few months since the expired takeover. It is trapped in a very tight range (mostly $1.27 - $1.30). Volumes have been quite erratic and occasionally large. Today (a relatively quiet day) a large volume of shares traded (does anyone have the VWAP?). I am interested to know whether there is an explanation for this behaviour.

  2. #2
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    Liz, the VWAP is $1.299 - It is so close to the days high because 88% of the total days volume was a single crossing at $1.30.

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    Thanks Phaedrus. I wondered if that was the case. I just get the impression that occasionally, when the price hits a low point, someone moves in and buys eveything on offer up to $1.30. No point speculating I guess - but maybe similar to what rmbbrave noticed with MHI before Fisher funds declared their stake?

  4. #4
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    Snoopy's value line is 130 .... maybe him
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

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    appalling service and product quality in last 2 RBD experiences - am sure they are being decimated by competition in each category

    hard to find a less impressively run company
    try underwater salvage... cos its there... somewhere... maybe...

  6. #6
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    quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor
    hard to find a less impressively run company
    You've got no imagination - i can think of plenty.
    Disc: JWI, VCT, VCT010

    Stainless Steel Rat - slipping between the cracks.

  7. #7
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    quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

    appalling service and product quality in last 2 RBD experiences - am sure they are being decimated by competition in each category

    hard to find a less impressively run company
    IN your case suggest that you stop going there to distress yourself that is there standard and works still opening stores[which costs money which they seem to have] and paying Div`s ,, wish a lot of other Co`s would as well and the share is available another rare thing on the NZX.. [8D]

  8. #8
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    quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


    IN your case suggest that you stop going there to distress yourself that is there standard and works still opening stores [which costs money which they seem to have] and paying Div`s ,, wish a lot of other Co`s would as well and the share is available another rare thing on the NZX.. [8D]
    Quite right Bricks. RBD isn't a great company, but they do have a remarkably consistant record of paying steady dividends over many years. A record that some of those supposedly stable property companies (Capital Properties, National Property Trust) might learn from.

    Yet RBD is consistently rated 20% *below* those companies on a dividend yield basis! How many years of outperforming property companies does RBD have to put on the board before they are at least rated equally with them? It doesn't matter what the answer is. I have the patience to simply wait, while collecting my well above term deposit rate dividend in the meantime.

    In the meantime, on an historic basis, RBD are nearing the top of their long established trading range (takeover spike excepted). So history tells me now is not a good time to buy. But I don't have much reverence for financial history and my most recent buys were well below these price levels anyway!

    SNOOPY



    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

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    Snoopy, TUT, TUT, I know what i would sooner have had over the last 3yrs RBD, KIP, or CNZ. Add the the divedends to the share price, and come back at me.
    FEB 2003 to feb 2006 Take that black patch of that eye and think about it. macdunk

  10. #10
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    quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

    Snoopy, TUT, TUT, I know what i would sooner have had over the last 3yrs RBD, KIP, or CNZ. Add the the dividends to the share price, and come back at me.
    FEB 2003 to feb 2006 Take that black patch of that eye and think about it. macdunk
    OK Macdunk, lend me your time machine and I'll sell my RBD shares three years ago and invest in KIP and CNZ.

    Unfortunately in my world I can only invest going forwards. My comparison was pitching yields going forwards against long term average yields.

    SNOOPY

    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

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    Macdunk - if you go back a bit further, KIP and CNZ were doing nothing at all. It's been a bull run for listed property for best part of 4 years and it won't last forever. I'm getting more underweight on them by the month...

    Referring to the stock picking game for 2005, RBD returned 7.3% - beating 85% of average entries in the contest (including yours at 0.81%), despite finishing well off its mid-year highs...

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    LIZ, I didnt say that listed property companies were a good investment. Snoopy and i have been having this discussion for years. He inferred that RBD stood up well against property listed companies i think the opposite. LIZ let me remind you that my dogs selections are way ahead of yours in this years comp so that means nothing at all. macdunk

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    Oh well, another thread disintegrates into the same pointless arguments...

    ...must remember never to attempt any meaningful analysis on RBD!

  14. #14
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    quote:Originally posted by Lizard


    The trading in RBD seems to have been very odd in the last few months since the expired takeover. It is trapped in a very tight range (mostly $1.27 - $1.30). Volumes have been quite erratic and occasionally large. Today (a relatively quiet day) a large volume of shares traded (does anyone have the VWAP?). I am interested to know whether there is an explanation for this behaviour.
    Just noticed I hadn't answered the original question. In my assessment there is no explanation because not all market behaviour demands an explanation. And this IMO is one of those cases.

    "Trapped in a very tight trading range" means there is general market agreement about the share value. Daily volume changes in all shares outside the top twenty can generally be classes as erratic.
    In this case there are big shareholders selling shares to other big shareholders and small shareholders selling shares to other small shareholders.

    All you have described Lizard is the normal operations of a generally static market. Just because some trading statistics can be generated doesn't mean they have meaning. My explanation for the trading behaviour you describe is 'random noise'. However, if you seek an explanation when there is nothing to explain your mind is a superb creative device. The mind will find a pattern in the random noise if you are determined to see one.

    SNOOPY



    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

  15. #15
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    Okay Snoopy, no arguments, I do have a superbly creative mind...[:0]

    Still, RBD has broken out over the last two days. Somehow, it is not trading with the rest of the market. Personally, I think this seems positive.

    Cheers,
    Liz

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