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  1. #1216
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    Hi Snoopy,

    Any idea what inflation has averaged at over your 12 year time frame.?

    cheers
    Moi.

  2. #1217
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    I'm not going near this argument, but Snoopy will also have enjoyed tax advantages from not having his capital gains taxed.

  3. #1218
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    The point that is often missed is that using technical entry/exit points does not necessarily a trader make.

    It is quite possible to use TA and be a long-term holder of a stock in much the same way that Snoopy has with RBD. Just because you use TA to time your entry and exit points does not mean that you are automatically tax liable. You could have held FBU continuously for 4 years using TA entry and exit from 2003-2007, collecting both dividends and capital gain along the way.

  4. #1219
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    Quote Originally Posted by moimoi View Post
    Hi Snoopy,

    Any idea what inflation has averaged at over your 12 year time frame.?

    cheers
    Moi.
    Yes. Exactly the same amount as if I had just put my RBD money in the bank. :-P

    SNOOPY
    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

  5. #1220
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yankiwi View Post
    Well I can say the FA/TA debate has now come in to perspective for me. :o

    Am I correct in thinking the following?

    Snoopy & the other FA crowd compare their earnings to a bank deposit.
    I don't speak for the 'other FA crowd' Yankiwi, only myself.

    Generally I would compare my New Zealand sharemarket investment performance to an NZX index. However, that part of my portfolio they I have invested in for 'income' I would tend to compare to a bank term deposit. RBD has always been an 'income investment' for me.

    SNOOPY
    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

  6. #1221
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lego_Man View Post
    I'm not going near this argument, but Snoopy will also have enjoyed tax advantages from not having his capital gains taxed.
    Not in this case Lego Man. My average entry price was $1.02. As I write this the market price is $1.02. I haven't made any capital gains, so my 'saving' in 'capital gains tax' (trading income tax) is nil.

    A trader who has made some trade profits along the way (if there is such a person) will be ahead on a capital basis. Because the fact that they have paid tax on capital gains over and above trading costs indicates that they have actually made a capital profit. And any capital profit is better than none. (Except that is if being out of RBD means that you have missed out on the greater benefits of the dividends that the 'buy and hold' investor has banked by just doing nothing.) Clear as mud yet?

    SNOOPY
    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

  7. #1222
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lego_Man View Post
    I'm not going near this argument, but Snoopy will also have enjoyed tax advantages from not having his capital gains taxed.
    That is because he has not made any.
    Simple example:
    Has a $1.00 earns 30c
    Tax 10c say
    Result = capital now $1.20

    Snoopy's capital still $1.00

  8. #1223
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    Snoopy is of course not the only one with the unfortunate penchant for "investing" in downtrending stocks. Click here to view a particularly cruel illustration of this practice in action. Different stock. Different punter. Same problem.

    We are covering old ground here. Periodically I pull Snoopy's tail by highlighting the negative effects of his ignoring prevailing market sentiment when timing his stock purchases. Click Here to see how little our respective stances have changed since last time!

    Snoopy is obviously quite happy with his system and content with the results he is achieving. I guess there can never be consensus when our aims are totally different. Mine is to maximise capital gain and his is to maximise dividend yield. Each to his own, eh?

  9. #1224
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    We all invest for the exact same reason, and that is to increase our wealth at a higher rate than bank interest. If we get fixated with dividends, completely ignoring the share price downtrend, then that is being straight out stupid. The market in general follows great trends in both directions, from over priced to under priced. Regardless if you are a FA expert or not, it is completely unwise to hold shares in prolonged downtrends. The market always appears to know before the facts become general knowledge.
    This raises the question of market trend being more important than fundamental analysis.
    Farm service companies always lag behind farm gate prices, so why not study farm gate prices before making your buy or sell decision. I can tell for instance what time of day to buy or sell my mining shares simply by looking at the previous nights price charts.
    Nickel goes up five pc buy on opening, nickel goes down five pc sell on opening. The company as long as it is a good solid company will follow the price level of the commodoty so why study the fundamentals. The market in general will rise or fall regardless of individual company fundamentals making it a very risky place for FA investors. Macdunk

  10. #1225
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    Quote Originally Posted by hiawatha View Post
    RBD, unfortunately, doesn't sell nickel. And I doubt whether there is much correlation between chicken prices, assuming one could ascertain what they were, and RBD's share price.
    hiawatha
    I always knew that stuff on Pizza hut Pizzas and in KFC wasnt real chicken

  11. #1226
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    Quote Originally Posted by duncan macgregor View Post
    We all invest for the exact same reason, and that is to increase our wealth at a higher rate than bank interest.
    I thought it was to get rich or die trying

  12. #1227
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    Arrow How sweet it is..

    BRICKS says to all the OLD knockers of KFC eat your words and watch Snoopy head for
    the bank with a smile on his face,, Its the Mr Chips days all over again a large DIV increase should follow and just keep building in the years to come as in the past this is STOCK..

  13. #1228
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    Quote Originally Posted by BRICKS View Post
    BRICKS says to all the OLD knockers of KFC eat your words and watch Snoopy head for the bank with a smile on his face,, Its the Mr Chips days all over again a large DIV increase should follow and just keep building in the years to come as in the past this is STOCK..
    This one has taken patience, hasn't it Bricks. But after years of share price declines, it looks like the payoff is happening in a big hurry, over a matter of months. Of course the share price declines do not matter if you are prepared to buy on the dips and pocket those dividends, which have remained at a steady 11% or so yield, as the 'penalty cost' for holding an apparent non-performer.

    The RBD share price recovery has been much faster than I would have expected. So it is just as well I wasn't trying to 'time the market' with my RBD share purchases.

    The tragedy is those 'smart traders' who have ridden the share price rise from 70c to just over a dollar will have sold out over the last month or so as the share price stagnated and dropped below the hypothetical trend line. Thus not only will they be facing a capital gain tax bill. They will have missed today's quantum share price leap. Sad, but that is what happens when you don't have any fundamental understanding of the underlying value of the businessess that you own and are only concerned with what other people think: that mysterious 'smart money' contingent. In this internet age, the small investor is no longer at the disadvantage they once were, regarding access to information. But of course to take advantage of this information, this requires you to read those NZX releases yourself and do your own homework. And that is all too much effort for those who think they deserve to gain something for nothing, by riding on the coat tails of the 'smart money'.

    An upgraded $15m projected profit over 97m shares on issue equates to earnings of 15.5cps. At $1.20, the projected PE ratio for FY2010 is now under 8. This turnaround has been no surprise to me because it was inevitable once Pizza Hut stopped losing bucket loads of money, even if the rest of the business showed zero growth. Needless to say there is absolutely no chance of me selling any of my RBD shares at a price anywhere near $1.20. And to contemplate selling at 90c or 70c or whatever the share price got to last year just because the share price was going down - as some people on this forum were exhorting me to do - can now be seen for the insanity it was.

    SNOOPY

    discl: hold RBD (but will not be heading for the bank yet with any of my booty.)
    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

  14. #1229
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    Default RBD Chart

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    The RBD share price recovery has been much faster than I would have expected. So it is just as well I wasn't trying to 'time the market' with my RBD share purchases.
    Snoopy, it is because you make no attempt to 'time the market' that your RBD returns have been so abysmal. You ignore market sentiment. You buy in downtrends. You fight the market.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    The tragedy is those 'smart traders' who have ridden the share price rise from 70c to just over a dollar will have sold out over the last month or so as the share price stagnated and dropped below the hypothetical trend line. They will have missed today's quantum share price leap.
    Complete and utter nonsense. Here is an update of the chart posted on page 90. It is quite evident that the indicators that got 'smart traders' into RBD at around 70 cents have NOT triggered ANY Sell signals and are in fact nowhere near signaling any.
    RBD was in a steep uptrend then went into a tight $1.00 - $1.06 trading range. Statistically, these break to the upside 70% of the time, so on this basis alone, the odds clearly favoured continuing to hold RBD.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Sad, but that is what happens when you don't have any fundamental understanding of the underlying value of the businessess that you own and are only concerned with what other people think.
    Snoopy, what really is sad here is the unfortunate fact that your deep fundamental understanding of RBD has not helped you at all - your biggest investment has returned zero capital growth in 12 years! The "other people" you refer to are the market and collectively they know all there is to be known about RBD. What they think really does matter. A lot. Those that ignore market sentiment (like you) pay a heavy price. Those that DO concern themselves with 'what other people think' have made more capital gain from RBD in 7 months than you have made in 12 years.


  15. #1230
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phaedrus View Post
    Snoopy, it is because you make no attempt to 'time the market' that your RBD returns have been so abysmal. You ignore market sentiment. You buy in downtrends. You fight the market.

    Snoopy, what really is sad here is the unfortunate fact that your deep fundamental understanding of RBD has not helped you at all - your biggest investment has returned zero capital growth in 12 years!
    Last month RBD had given me zero capital growth in twelve years Phaedrus. But now my capital return is +15%. Granted over twelve years that amounts to little more than 1% per year. But add that to the average gross dividend yield of 10% and I have still earned 11.3% gross per year through good times and bad times. That return is not abysmal as you put it. In fact it is slightly better than market returns.

    Of course although I haven't tried to time the market, I have taken advantage of the market when prices are low. That 11% return is averaged over twelve years, but my average holding time for RBD is only three years (over which time the company has relatively outperformed), due to most of my investment going into this company in the last couple of years. That means *my* average returns are actually rather better than 11% per annum, when I take into account when I owned most of those shares. So despite not trying to time the market, I did use market timing - after the event, with the RBD share price bashed down - to boost my returns.

    To summarize there has been no underperformance from RBD, for me, because I was prepared to buy low when others were not. My total returns have been approximately twice that of putting my money in the bank, which is exactly what I set out to achieve with this income based investment.

    Complete and utter nonsense. Here is an update of the chart posted on page 90. It is quite evident that the indicators that got 'smart traders' into RBD at around 70 cents have NOT triggered ANY Sell signals and are in fact nowhere near signaling any.
    RBD was in a steep uptrend then went into a tight $1.00 - $1.06 trading range. Statistically, these break to the upside 70% of the time, so on this basis alone, the odds clearly favoured continuing to hold RBD.
    Ah so you are still on board Phaedrus! It is good that you didn't just sell on the (steep) trendline break and your indicators have kept you in the game. We might make an investor out of you yet!

    SNOOPY

    discl: hold RBD
    Last edited by Snoopy; 20-09-2009 at 08:28 AM.
    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

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