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  1. #1111
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Have to assume that the 9 mill shares odd get shared around a few holders .... no SSH since
    Well we know one outfit that wasn't a buyer. SSH notice posted today that Tower had reduced their shareholding below 5%. I must admit I hadn't even registered the fact that Tower had a 5%+ stake. Looking back at the SSH announcements I see they only declared their position on September 18th 2008. Still Tower haven't fully sold out yet, retaining 4.2% of RBD shares. Looks like they sold out of RBD at about the price they bought in at.

    The price is holding up at around 70c though. And am I right in saying that turnover has been higher than normal since AMP dumped their stake at the start of February?

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  2. #1112
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    Arrow NOTED the TURNOVER..

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Well we know one outfit that wasn't a buyer. SSH notice posted today that Tower had reduced their shareholding below 5%. I must admit I hadn't even registered the fact that Tower had a 5%+ stake. Looking back at the SSH announcements I see they only declared their position on September 18th 2008. Still Tower haven't fully sold out yet, retaining 4.2% of RBD shares. Looks like they sold out of RBD at about the price they bought in at.

    The price is holding up at around 70c though. And am I right in saying that turnover has been higher than normal since AMP dumped their stake at the start of February?

    SNOOPY
    YES today was a smoke screen Tower swings NO real power, but your right about the turnover it seems constant and a slow build so the CAT is not out of the bag YET..

  3. #1113
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    Quote Originally Posted by BRICKS View Post
    YES today was a smoke screen Tower swings NO real power
    Whats that mean?

  4. #1114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Am I right in saying that turnover has been higher than normal since AMP dumped their stake at the start of February?
    You sure are, Snoopy.

    Total volume in 28 trading days since the dump:- 5,477,852

    Total volume in 28 trading days before the dump:- 2,444,189

    Chart supplied on request (if needed)

  5. #1115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    RBD at 80 cents.

    Those KFC sure are flying out the door.
    I have to admit I got this one wrong. I was sure the share price would stall at the 80c level. But as of this morning a bid of 83c will be needed to dislodge shares from existing shareholder's hands! A gain of 38% in a little over a month while the rest of the market goes down is not a performance any seasoned investor can ignore. It certainly shows the concept of 'investment caution zones' where all investment decisions are put on hold while the broad market slides in a new light. The fact is, there are always shares that are going to do well even in a bear market. It just takes a little more work to find them.

    Of course there are other shareholders, like those who have recently added themselves to the Nuplex share register, who have done even better. But from my perspective, investing in Nuplex would have been a huge gamble, and in comparative terms an investment in RBD was near to 'downside risk free'. Why do I say that? RBD has an outlook of strongly growing underlying profits coupled with steadily reducing debt, as the debt is paid down out of those profits. The strongly growing profits would only have been obvious to those who looked behind the headlines which reflected the Pizza Hut problems (that is where doing your homework comes in). Nuplex OTOH, was looking at sharply reduced profits and was crippled with debt and at the mercy of its bankers. A more chalk and cheese situation is something that is difficult to imagine.

    I dubbed 2008 'the year of retail', as that is where I saw the best investment opportunities arising. The market hammered retail shares in anticipation of sharply reduced retail profits. What surprised me was that although we have a number of smart retail operators in New Zealand, I couldn't make an investment case that would be better than buying more RBD shares. So my newly allocated 'retail investment capital' all went into buying more RBD shares. Increasing my RBD holding by 40% didn't do anything for diversifying my portfolio. But it sure impacted on my returns. And all this from a company with a culture of management mediocrity!

    There will be plenty of my critics who will be wearing an omlette balaclava over RBD. I don't want to dwell on this as even at 82c I am still 20c under my all time average purchase price - even if dividends over the years put me well ahead. But perhaps now you can all see how poorly informed you all were in viewing RBD as a candidate for inevitable bankruptcy. In fact, it is the way that RBD has survived so many years of mismangement that shows how incredibly strong this underlying company is. Let's see what else new train driver Chairman Ted van Arkel can extract from his new charge. Please move right away from the platform while the new conductor, CEO Russel Creedy blows his whistle. We are on a roll. Next stop is $1 per share.

    SNOOPY

    discl: hold RBD
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  6. #1116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Like KFC flies like its sp but not Homestead Chicken which is awful.
    Not surprising as didn't Homestead Chicken get bought out twenty or more years ago? Try cleaning out your refrigerator more often Balance!

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  7. #1117
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    Default A Standalone RBD trading system based on nothing but Volume Spikes!

    As a "Buy and Hold" candidate, RBD has performed exceptionally poorly. A quick glance at the long-term chart on page 83 shows the long downtrend in gruesome detail. Regardless of dividends, this stock has been a losing proposition for years.

    Take a look at this, though. RBD's average daily volume is about 100,000 shares. Every so often, RBD volume abruptly increases - a lot. For the purposes of this exercise, a Volume spike is defined as any daily volume over about 1.8 million shares. Such spikes are marked by blue bars at the top of the chart. The idea here is to buy when a spike forms after a downtrend and Sell when a spike forms after an uptrend. Because many of you do not have access to the market during the day, the returns and entry/exit points shown here are based on buying or selling the day AFTER the signal. Following these signals would have given a compound return of almost 500% in just 4 trades over 12 years. Plus any dividends, of course! This, on a stock that is worth a mere fraction of what it was way back in 1997!

    See how this absurdly simple "system" kept you out of RBD for years at a time as the downtrend ground inexorably on. (There were no volume spikes from mid 2005 right through to the end of 2008, for example). Interesting eh?

    The latest huge volume spike flagged an excellent 65 cent entry point into RBD. At well over 9 million, this spike was RBD's third largest ever.


  8. #1118
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    Phaedrus, this is quite interesting. Looks like I need to look into the volumn a lot more. Waiting to offload the small package I've got.

  9. #1119
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    Default SNOOPY the HOUND DOG..

    Quote Originally Posted by BRICKS View Post
    BUT my information did not come from you or NZ, but what you said was very good deduction and common sense, well done. mine came else where and cant disclose
    in total just say i told you use it for what you LIKE..
    YOUR last comment sounds just like mine the $1.00 BIT..

  10. #1120
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    Well I had KFC last night for the first time in about 7 years and I was actually quite impressed. The cleanliness of the restaurant, the service and the food, were all good.

    I was just in for a snack before hitting town and had a snack deal thing....One chicken drum stick and chips for the bargin price of $3.

    The only thing that let it down was that the chips didn't have that chicken salt taste I remembered and is so often talked about.

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