RBD - Restaurant Brands

[BRICKS]

Well I had KFC last night for the first time in about 7 years and I was actually quite impressed. The cleanliness of the restaurant, the service and the food, were all good.

I was just in for a snack before hitting town and had a snack deal thing....One chicken drum stick and chips for the bargin price of $3.

The only thing that let it down was that the chips didn't have that chicken salt taste I remembered and is so often talked about.

ALL you got to do is ASK.. they have alot of CUSTOMERS..

[Nitaa]

ALL you got to do is ASK.. they have alot of CUSTOMERS..

It would probabvly be better if they offered. "try out delicious tasting chicken flavoured chips at no extra cost". Something like that anyway.

[BRICKS]

It would probabvly be better if they offered. "try out delicious tasting chicken flavoured chips at no extra cost". Something like that anyway.

COST did not come into it all your got to do is ASK ever..

[Nitaa]

COST did not come into it

Isnt that what i said?

What i am getting at bricks is if a company has something specfial to offer that people might like then they should promote it. All the staff have to do is spend 3 seconds mentioning it while they ring it up on the till.

[Grimy]

Don't they only have the chicken taste if they've been hanging around too long?! I've never heard of it as an option.
As an aside, the share price has only started going up since I've started buying Pizzas again. I didn't think 6 pizzas at $6 each would make such a difference!

[BRICKS]

Don't they only have the chicken taste if they've been hanging around too long?! I've never heard of it as an option.
As an aside, the share price has only started going up since I've started buying Pizzas again. I didn't think 6 pizzas at $6 each would make such a difference!

SHARE PRICE prediction is $1.00 your $36 dollars is now in the till it all helps, Hope
you had a good time eating myself don't eat Pizzas but that dose not matter if you want to be part of the action get your SHARE..

[Snoopy]

See how this absurdly simple "system" kept you out of RBD for years at a time as the downtrend ground inexorably on. (There were no volume spikes from mid 2005 right through to the end of 2008, for example). Interesting eh?

Apparently we have a very simple system here which if followed would have produced a near 500% return just by following three simple 'single indicator' rules.

Volume spike after a downtrend = BUY
Volume spike after an uptrend = SELL
Volume spike when in a trading range= IGNORE

The question of interest here is is not

'How did the hypothetical historical trader do'?

But

'Could the real trader take advantage of this single simple indicator system in real time'?

Take a look at that first trade, where our trader made 63% on his invested money. It is true that large volume spikes in trading volume are often good confirmation statistics for trend traders. It turned out that the first large volume spike marked a new uptrend beginning. But think of the alternative scenario. If the stock price had paused and moved downwards on another leg, that volume jump could equally well be seen as the starting point of a new downtrend, with the 'smart money' bailing out. I think even those with modest mathematical skills will appreciate that a 'pattern' cannot be extrapolated from a single data point.

Even the very simplest pattern (a straight line) requires at least two data points, a beginning point and an end point. Even then such a pattern is tentative until it can be confirmed with a third data point.

Moving back to our example then, our 'volume pattern rule' would only be confirmed as having some value after the third volume spike data point. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that no real trader could have made trades 1 (63% profit), 2 (56% profit) or 3 (48% profit). Just that no real trader would have made these trades based on the simple three rule system that Phaedrus has outlined. And that it would take until this time to gain sufficient market data to ensure the 'three rule theory' could be verified by back testing.

That leaves the latest and ongoing share price rise in which our trader bought in at 65c and is ongoing as the share price rose to 86c today as the only real time trade that this simple 'three rule system' could take credit for. That gain so far amounts to 36%, which is a far cry from the near 500% that our hypothetical historical trader made.

Still 36% in just a few weeks is a gain not to be sneezed at and is certainly superior to the buy and hold investor who if holding RBD now would have endured the share price slide from the equivalent of $2 to just 86c. This buy and hold negative return has naturally enough been offset by dividends over the years summing to 95cps. IOW the dividends paid per share are higher than the market valuation of the company that is left. Clearly then no serious long term analysis of RBD can ignore dividends, as some who I group as the 'dividend deniers' claim.

But where does this simple 'three rule RBD system' leave us? So far it stacks up quite well against 'buy and hold', even if real returns are likely far less than the 500% claimed. But then who is advocating buy and hold at all costs? In fact such a strategy is just another, albeit very crude, market timing strategy where at some point in the future you assume the company will be worth more than at float time.

Alternatively, the strategy that I use can be best summed up as a 'value averaging strategy'. In simple terms this means ignoring the market completely, but having an investment budget so that you feed in smallish equal dollar amounts into your favourite share(s) every six months (for example). When the share price is low your fixed dollar investment will buy more shares. When the share price is high those fixed dollars will buy less. Thus over time most of your shares will be bought at lower prices without having to predict or rely on the direction of the market.

SNOOPY

[duncan macgregor]

SNOOPY, There is none as blind as those that refuse to see. You have a lot of learning to do my friend, open your mind to reality before you go under. Why you persist in your fundamental stupidity blind to the reality of an ever changing market is beyond me. If your analysis was worth anything surely you should have got rid of this dog whose share price is still playing catch up over the last decade. Macdunk

[glennj]

I'm not a holder of this stock and never have been but duncan's post prompted me to have a quick look at recent performance, check a few ratios etc. Current reality is that this stock has been one of the strongest performers on the NZ market! Both in FA & TA terms it's not a dog at the moment and hasn't been in the recent past.

[Balance]

Company bringing forward its reporting date.

Yet another great sign are things are 'clucking' along.