RBD - Restaurant Brands

[Snoopy]

My records show that my RBD investment has returned 10.8% per annum after tax since December 2003, which is a similar figure. It may not be a "get rich quick" spectacular type of return, but over a 6 year period it's more than acceptable.

RBD closed today at $1.55. So my own total capital gain is now 52%. Over the twelve years I have held that represents a compounding rate of capital growth of 3.5%. Add that to my dividend yield of around 10% and my total anual return has increased to 13.5% (after tax) or something approaching 20%pa before tax. Not spectacular enough for some, but enough to see off the NZX50 now by a useful margin now. And unlike the index, because the dividends have been so high and steady, shareholders have been able to make their own decision as to whether they reinvest their dividends or spend them.

For me this has turned into a model investment, but only because I was prepared to buy and keep buying while the share price was low. The 'buy at the float' and hold investors still won't be popping any wine corks, although even they will have earned around 3.4% per annum before tax. That is a lot better than investing in (any?) finance company.

SNOOPY

[Phaedrus]

What a pity you and I are the only ones who will admit to holding RBD Bricks...Oh and Phaedrus now holds too I think. But he is keeping a low profile. Still smarting at telling me off for purchasing those RBD shares at around 90c when they were on the way down a couple of years ago I would guess.

Bad guess, Snoopy! I would have thought that you were the one that was smarting, though! I was very consistent in my disapproval of your averaging down as you "topped up" your RBD holdings at $1.60, $1.30, $1.24 etc etc all the way down. Every so often I would kindly post a chart and gently point out to you that RBD was still in a downtrend. Some charts highlighted the steady capital destruction as RBD's long-term downtrend ground inexorably on. As you said in 2006 "most of my holding has been bought in the last couple of years, during the time RBD has suffered from the most derision on this forum". That would be from me and MacDunk, I guess! It would be good to look back at those charts but unfortunately Ripway has gone down, taking all my old posted charts with it, so these no longer appear on ST. I am now using Photobucket as my web host - I hope they will prove to be more reliable.

I'm surprised that our techies havn't piled in to that uptrend. Perhaps they have?

MacDuffy, where have you been? There have been plenty of RBD charts posted, showing good entry points. Even the most casual glance at a chart should show you that virtually any TA system would have got you into RBD at 65 - 75 cents.

[macduffy]

Hi Phaedrus.

I was referring to the lack of posts to that effect. So the techies were quietly accumulating on the way up?

[Phaedrus]

So the techies were quietly accumulating on the way up?

No - that's not what techies do. They buy when there are buy signals.

[Snoopy]

It would be good to look back at those charts but unfortunately Ripway has gone down, taking all my old posted charts with it, so these no longer appear on ST. I am now using Photobucket as my web host - I hope they will prove to be more reliable.

Your charts may not have gone for good Phaedrus

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Ripside Interactive, Inc., which includes Villagephotos.com and Imagecave.com has experienced multiple hardware failures, as well as denial of service attacks over the last two weeks. We have made a significant investment in new hardware, replaced multiple devices, load balancers, and we are still having issues with connectivity. We are continuing to work on this issue non-stop and expect to have the problems resolved by Saturday.

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SNOOPY

[BRICKS]

LOOKING topie and a number comes through so BRICKS bought a few to top of his account
before resume its post UPWARDS.. and as they are cum div is very NICE..

[emearg]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9...nt-brands.html

Daily Share Chat: Restaurant Brands

By Jenny Ruth

Restaurant Brands' KFC store transformation program "continues to deliver extraordinary returns," says Macquarie Equities analyst Warren Doak.

The average increase in sales in the first year of a transformed store is 19%, he says. That, and an acceleration of the program, coupled with new menu offerings and new store openings, are expected to underpin strong same-store sales growth for at least the next three years," Doak says.

"Management's focus is now unashamedly 100% on the core KFC business with management expressing great confidence in the medium-term outlook."

Doak says his forecasts are very conservative relative to management guidance but, even so, Restaurant Brands "continues to trade on remarkably undemanding valuation multiples."

He is expecting net profit, excluding non-trading items, will come in at $16.9 million for the year ending February 28, a 39.5% increase on the previous year.

Doak says the Pizza Hut chain showed a marked improvement in operating performance in the first half but the company remains committed to a controlled sell-down.

The Starbucks chain proved to be the most economy-sensitive brand and its first-half performance was disappointing. "A new management team and a renewed focus on core operations is expected to underpin an improved second-half performance." Doak has a $1.70 per share 12 month price target.

BROKER CALL: Macquarie Equities rate Restaurant Brands as outperform

[BRICKS]

ON Saturday night felt like some KFC so over we GO to my surprise chock a block store love this story did a quick mental sum and concluded this is profit so just out tonight profit will be up 50% or 18 cents a share this will mean a 10cent DIVIDEN..

[meesham]

ON Saturday night felt like some KFC so over we GO to my surprise chock a block store love this story did a quick mental sum and concluded this is profit so just out tonight profit will be up 50% or 18 cents a share this will mean a 10cent DIVIDEN..

And look at the price go up this morning. Some people call RBD boring, I'm pretty happy holding a "boring" stock like this.

[Snoopy]

I would have thought that you were the one that was smarting, though! I was very consistent in my disapproval of your averaging down as you "topped up" your RBD holdings at $1.60, $1.30, $1.24 etc etc all the way down. Every so often I would kindly post a chart and gently point out to you that RBD was still in a downtrend. Some charts highlighted the steady capital destruction as RBD's long-term downtrend ground inexorably on.

How things change. The 'capital destruction' referred to here has all been reversed and all of what some would term my 'averaging down' is back in the black! So much for averaging down (even though I hate that term) not working. Buying RBD while it was cheap for me has certainly proved an excellent investment. Yet even at $1.63, RBD is sitting on a PE of 9.3 to 10.5 after yesterday's profit upgrade. So no sign of RBD being overvalued yet, and the dividend yield remains excellent. Mind you, I'm not taking any credit for predicting the RBD share price rise this year. I just selected RBD to rise 'eventually' and have been caught out by the ferocity and pace of what has happened. Of course being 'caught out' when you are heavily invested in RBD already is not such a bad thing.

The most optimistic forecast issued by an independent analyst before yesterday was $1.80. That figure is looking very attainable now.

SNOOPY