RBD - Restaurant Brands

[Balance]

A good example of a turnaround story and following the directors and management.

Buy when they are buying - they were loading up with shares when there were plenty of doubters still about.

Perfect timing.

[BRICKS]

SNOOPY is that $2 on the board whats happening how long do we stay or collect the DIV.. where is Mc Duck..

[Snoopy]

A good example of a turnaround story and following the directors and management.

Buy when they are buying - they were loading up with shares when there were plenty of doubters still about.

Perfect timing.

This is the 'turn around' that shows no sign of turning around. Shares are up 8c to $1.90 today. But already there are buyers at $1.92 and no sellers at all under $2. I also hadn't noticed up until today that Brian Gaynor's Milford Asset Management has appeared as a substantial shareholder, as of late January. All good stuff. It will be interesting if the upcoming quarterly sales announcement justifies any of this price action. Perhaps there is a bonus dividend on the horizon with the selling off of some of those Pizza Hut franchises to 'Joe Kiwi Manager'?

SNOOPY

discl: hold RBD, no plans to sell down yet.

[Snoopy]

SNOOPY is that $2 on the board whats happening how long do we stay or collect the DIV

Mystery solved Bricks..


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FORECAST: RBD: Profit Upgrade Announcement

4 March 2010 NZX

RESTAURANT BRANDS FORECASTS ANNUAL PROFIT UP 67% TO $19.5M

A combination of stronger than expected trading over the last quarter of the year (especially from its KFC stores) and the successful resolution of a pricing review with a major supplier has meant that the company will deliver a trading result ahead of previous expectations for the year. Restaurant Brands now anticipates its full year net profit after tax (excluding non trading items) for the year ended 28 February 2010 will be in the vicinity of $19.5 million (20 cents per share). This will represent an improvement of $7.8 million or 67% on the prior year's result.

The annual profit announcement will be made on 7 April 2010.

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EPS of 20c per share means that at anything under $2.00, the PE is still under 10! Despite the share price rise, this is *still* looking to be the cheapest share in my portfolio. Amazing stuff!

.. where is Mc Duck..

Probably frying his head in one of those KFC chicken vats by now I would imagine....

SNOOPY

[Balance]

SNOOPY, I told you a great number of years ago that RBD is a dog. You have argued the point buying more, and more, of something worth less and less. We are now heading into a recession, with your investing style setting you up to losing the lot. Any one with half a brain wont swim against the tide, you wait until the tide turns, then swim with it.
RBD sold its kennel for an overseas trip, then leased the kennel back which was a huge mistake as i told you at the time.
They followed that by spending huge ammounts doing the kennel up. The bad times are upon us they pay leases when they might have been mortgage free if they had stuck to their knitting. The best way to expand a business is pay the mortgage off first, this can be used to borrow cheaper money for further expansion.
In the bad times the business is in a good position to compete being rent free. RBD are now in a very bad position, owning nothing, with the bad times now upon us. All you have to do is think back to the last time you heard a kid ask to go to a RBD restaurant. I cant think of one can you?. Macdunk

When it's all dark out there and everyone is scared, that's the best time to pick up the bargains.

[Phaedrus]

When it's all dark out there and everyone is scared, that's the best time to pick up the bargains.

NO IT'S NOT! That's what Snoopy thought he was doing when he kept buying into RBD's long downtrend, "topping up" with "bargains" at $1.75, $1.60, $1.30, $1.26, $1.24.............
The best time to buy is when the long slide eventually stops and begins reversing. When the first light of dawn tells us that the long dark night is over! When technical indicators that have not triggered for years start firing off Buy signals.
Even MacDunk understood this simple concept - as he quaintly put it "Any one with half a brain wont swim against the tide, you wait until the tide turns, then swim with it."

[Snoopy]

NO IT'S NOT! That's what Snoopy thought he was doing when he kept buying into RBD's long downtrend, "topping up" with "bargains" at $1.75, $1.60, $1.30, $1.26, $1.24.............
The best time to buy is when the long slide eventually stops and begins reversing.

Yes I did buy RBD at all of those price levels. But I did keep on buying at lower levels as well. And that means my average entry price is now $1.02. You can call my strategy for RBD 'sub optimal' I suppose. But in this case 'sub optimal' means an enormous outperformance of the NZX40/50 over a thirteen year period. If someone did better than I did, well good on them. But as far as I am concerned my purchasing strategy has delivered - and then some.

The best time to buy is when the long slide eventually stops and begins reversing.
When the first light of dawn tells us that the long dark night is over! When technical indicators that have not triggered for years start firing off Buy signals.

I can't argue with the theory. But the question is how many traders actually did that (apart from you Phaedrus). Most of the other traders seemed to delight in dismissing RBD. Then when the trend turned, they were so poisoned of thought that they missed the huge ride upwards in what was in terms of my thirteen year investment horizon (so far) was a very narrow window. The way RBD has recovered now even 'buy and hold' from listing (which is not a purchasing strategy I advocate) is starting to look good.

I have to admit being surprised at the RBD recovery, at near to $2. I didn't pick it. But my purchasing strategy assured that I was there anyway.

SNOOPY

[Footsie]

well done to all who bought... 3 profit upgrades in 6 months. amazing... 55c to 195
this is the kind of story we all want to land every year.

i have to admit they were recommended to me a few. one of those people is actually an acquaintance who is doing time inside! plenty of time to think.
at the time i pretty much laughed....

seems others are having the last laugh. I wonder if maybe WDT might be a potential dog to star for 2010?

[Steve]

The Dunedin North KFC has reopened this weekend after its upgrade. Just in time for all those students to trash...

[Lizard]

After a 2+ year break, just tried to order delivery from Pizza Hut again. Took the on-line route (as you do), only ended up stuck at "order submitted", since the site decided to link my address to a closed branch!

However, rang PH - and after only a one minute wait, actually got to talk to a helpful person who processed my order and filed a report re my on-line experience. The whole ordering process only took 25 mins () start to finish so now waiting for the pizzas...

... so, pizza's good (tick), helpful staff good (tick), web-site (oops!).

I guess from the shareholder's perspective, having "room for improvement" is not all bad?