RBD - Restaurant Brands

[small fish]

Thank the 'Burger Tower' burger I reckon, such tasty goodness.

[Snoopy]

I guess from the shareholder's perspective, having "room for improvement" is not all bad?

It has always been thus with Restaurant Brands.....

RBD shares did not respond to the recent 10% profit upgrade. It did initially with the shares trading over $2, but they have now fallen back to around the $1.90 level. One reason could be that quite a number of share options have been exercised in recent weeks. It is possible that some existing management shareholders are selling down their existing holdings to give them cash to take up their cheap shares. Or it could be other shareholders are selling down in anticipation of management doing this selldown when they are finally allowed to. Or it could be that having ridden the recovery wave and booked huge profits fund managers (are there any left on the share register other than Brian Gaynor, who is increasing his holdings?) are taking profits. None of these reasons sound convincing.

Looking through the share register I see that last year South Canterbury Finance Limited owned 350,000 shares. Given their capital requirements perhaps it is SCF who are selling out and depressing the share price?

David Novak of franchise parent 'YUM brands' likens the progress of parent YUM to being in the first innings of a ten innings ball game. My contrasting metaphorical image for RBD is that they are just starting the second half of a battering and bruising rugby encounter. That is because around half of the KFC stores have been 'transformed' under the KFC refurbishment program. Having got through the first half, the fans (read shareholders) are not entirely convinced they can hold on until the final whistle....

The biggest risk for RBD shareholders is I think that the managment and board will be distracted again by going into a new venture. It is slightly worrying that in recent profit announcements nothing more has been mentioned about the sell down of Pizza Hut to private operators. Starbucks it would seem continues as an unprofitable millstone once corporate costs are allocated to that business.

So where to for KFC, I mean RBD if they get through the current bruising rugby encounter? I know that Australia has been a graveyard for them with Pizza Hut. But I wouldn't be averse to them buying up some KFC stores in Australia or indeed some of those independently operated KFC stores that they don't own in New Zealand. Perhaps they could look at acquiring an Asian fast food franchise in New Zealand, like 'Hungry Wok'? Personally I would like to see them completely out of Starbucks. If they do any of the above I would regard it as positive. If they end up having to manage more than two chains I would regard that as negative as past experience shows RBD managment are overtaxed if they have too many distractions.

Given the PE of the shares is under ten with identifiable growth to come, I have no plans to reduce my own holding. There ends my state of the nation address on RBD!

SNOOPY

discl: hold RBD

[Silverlight]

Sell Starbucks, buy Noodle Canteen.

[Steve]

I think that we have a Noodle Hut in Dunedin now...

[BRICKS]

I think that we have a Noodle Hut in Dunedin now...

THERE would be a lot of oppersition from sharholders for RBD tryed to start another chain of anything Noodle or NOT..

[BRICKS]

TODAY BRICKS wrote to KFC and remind them that the KFC was still burned down what where they doing about
a NEW store.. Had a quick reply back confirming that they would reopen on the same site and they where getting council consent process once
consent was obtained rebuilding would start and they are excited about the new store design that LEVIN KFC will have and look forward toto our loyal customers in LEVIN as soon as possible..

SO there we have it not much about a hurry that they are loseing $400,000 T/O a month or more but
Nick Thomsom still collects salary all you can do is ASK..

end with,, I hope you have a wonderful week..

[chippy52]

TODAY BRICKS wrote to KFC and remind them that the KFC was still burned down what where they doing about
a NEW store.. Had a quick reply back confirming that they would reopen on the same site and they where getting council consent process once
consent was obtained rebuilding would start and they are excited about the new store design that LEVIN KFC will have and look forward toto our loyal customers in LEVIN as soon as possible..

SO there we have it not much about a hurry that they are loseing $400,000 T/O a month or more but
Nick Thomsom still collects salary all you can do is ASK..

end with,, I hope you have a wonderful week..

I have the documents on my desk now for pricing. Tenders close next week.

[BRICKS]

I have the documents on my desk now for pricing. Tenders close next week.

GOOD SHOW chippy will you be in the tender RACE.,GOOD LUCK.. BRICKS..

[Snoopy]

RBD shares did not respond to the recent 10% profit upgrade. It did initially with the shares trading over $2, but they have now fallen back to around the $1.90 level.

Looking through the share register I see that last year South Canterbury Finance Limited owned 350,000 shares. Given their capital requirements perhaps it is SCF who are selling out and depressing the share price?

The biggest risk for RBD shareholders is I think that the managment and board will be distracted again by going into a new venture. It is slightly worrying that in recent profit announcements nothing more has been mentioned about the sell down of Pizza Hut to private operators. Starbucks it would seem continues as an unprofitable millstone once corporate costs are allocated to that business.

The PE of the shares is under ten with identifiable growth to come,

Something very important psychologically happened on the market today. Did the market belatedly respond to the profit upgrade of 4th March?

There was sustained buying for RBD shares at over $2, with buyers at $2.02 and sellers at $2.03. $2.03 has some significance as taking into account the 1:12 bonus issue in year 2000, this was the original issue price back in 1997. A lucky 13 years after listing those original 'buy and hold' investors have *at last* got their capital back! That doesn't mean a zero return as over those 13 long years though, for dividends have been generous totalling $1.03 per share. Those of us who mainly bought into the share later, have of course done much better.

I expect there to be a pause where some of those original investors sell out at $2.03 and another pause later where the orginal investors who are not so good at maths sell out at their original per share buy price of $2.20. After that, on expectation of all of those pizza loving poms returning to their NZ campervan hotels for the World Cup, I expect the share price to settle at around $2.40, which will give a long term PE of 12. (I expect $2.40 may only correspond to a PE of 10 in World Cup year). At that point I plan to partially sell down my rather out of balance excess RBD holding. Why am I announcing this now? So that when the share price does rise to that level you guys can remind me of what I said today and remind me to *actually do the sell down*, rather than getting carried away in some kind of World Cup fever of pizza greed!

SNOOPY

[BRICKS]

WELL KFC the one to kick the can with an 8 cent div up to 12.5 cents the way it should have been for years like
a lot of KIWI company directors get hold of a big public company and turn it into a small public company, just
like TELECOM hoping RBD has learned a LESSON