RBD - Restaurant Brands

[Snoopy]

Something very important psychologically happened on the market today. Did the market belatedly respond to the profit upgrade of 4th March?

There was sustained buying for RBD shares at over $2, with buyers at $2.02 and sellers at $2.03. $2.03 has some significance as taking into account the 1:12 bonus issue in year 2000, this was the original issue price back in 1997. A lucky 13 years after listing those original 'buy and hold' investors have *at last* got their capital back! That doesn't mean a zero return as over those 13 long years though, for dividends have been generous totalling $1.03 per share. Those of us who mainly bought into the share later, have of course done much better.

Measured Profit result out today at $19.5m, or 20.5cps. That means at $2.03 the PE ratio is still under ten. Profit projection for next year is 'slightly in excess of $20m', very importantly with no qualification this time. That translates to profit growth of 2.5 to 5%. I think that is positive in the new RBD culture of underpromising and overdelivering.

Other result highlights:

a/ A big increase in management slurping at the trough was recorded, but this was largely offset by lower interest payments.
b/ It was good to see an improvement in EBITDA at Starbucks, even as sales declined.
c/ It was good to see the sell down of Pizza Hut back on the agenda. With trade looking up, it could be a good time for shareholders to help the transition to 'private Hut ownership'.

Full year dividend at 12.5c per share (a gross yield of 8.8% at $2.03) is well covered by earnings of 20.5cps. There is still plently of opportunity to spend those retained earnings wisely in the KFC transformation project that is still only half-way there. The Pizza Hut selldown may even produce a special dividend next year!

Measured incremental growth looks good from this shareholder's perspective. I won't be putting any of my shares on the market anytime soon. I expect a modest rise in share price today followed by a flurry of positive recommendations from brokers - all after the event!

SNOOPY

[BRICKS]

Snoopy if we are good boys up at Paraparaumu they mite build us a NEW KFC which would be an improvement as the current one is showing ware and tare, Will be writing back to KFC again
about LEVIN store that is moving at a dogs PACE.. still NO bricks moved..

[ENP]

There was sustained buying for RBD shares at over $2, with buyers at $2.02 and sellers at $2.03. $2.03 has some significance as taking into account the 1:12 bonus issue in year 2000, this was the original issue price back in 1997. A lucky 13 years after listing those original 'buy and hold' investors have *at last* got their capital back!
SNOOPY

Does this mean that time "in" the market is a sales pitch just like "diversification" that managed funds like to push?

Time "ing" the market, is it possible? And is it what successful investors do?

[winner69]

http://www.filmarchive.org.nz/selleb...iew.php?id=140

[GTM 3442]

(1) Does this mean that time "in" the market is a sales pitch just like "diversification" that managed funds like to push?

(2) Time "ing" the market, is it possible? And is it what successful investors do?

(1) Time in the market is silly. You want to be in the market during uptimes, and out of the market during downtimes. Otherwise you buy at $1, watch the price go to $2, and then watch while it goes down to $1 again. Which seems a somewhat pointless activity.

(2) You can't ever time the market exactly. But you can time it well enough to know when to get out.

After a few decades of this stuff, it seems to me that the second most important thing is to know when it's time to sell and stuff the moolah under the matress for a bit.

[minimoke]

Well, it needs to be said. Congrats to Bricks and Snoopy for holding RBD. I've been critical in the past but they held in there for the resurrgence.

Did a bit of my own market research last week to see what all the excitement was all about - but am still missing the picuture. Tried the local Pizza Hutt with the tamarikis mates. Didn't eat the food (thats a generous description) myself but the rest managed to gobble their way through a fair amount of tucker. First impression - why can't I buy a beer or wine - this is a minimum requirement when escorting the pigs to the trough. Second impression: empty at 6.00pm / half full by 6.30. Salad bar - so thats what they call a place to store the wilted lettuce and dried pasta. Pizza = grease laden dough with unidentifiable lumps of stuff glistening on the top. Corn chips - and nothing else: why?? Dessert bar - coloured gelatine sans flavour; pik-n-mix lollies, chocolate cake and stuff which gives ice cream a new definition.

So Snoopy and Bricks. When you are off to your local, spending your dividend cheque you can take some pleaseure from the $100 I've donated to your wallets. But don't expect a repeat for another few years.

[Snoopy]

Did a bit of my own market research last week to see what all the excitement was all about - but am still missing the picuture. Tried the local Pizza Hutt with the tamarikis mates. Didn't eat the food (thats a generous description) myself but the rest managed to gobble their way through a fair amount of tucker. First impression - why can't I buy a beer or wine - this is a minimum requirement when escorting the pigs to the trough. Second impression: empty at 6.00pm / half full by 6.30. Salad bar - so thats what they call a place to store the wilted lettuce and dried pasta. Pizza = grease laden dough with unidentifiable lumps of stuff glistening on the top. Corn chips - and nothing else: why?? Dessert bar - coloured gelatine sans flavour; pik-n-mix lollies, chocolate cake and stuff which gives ice cream a new definition.

So Snoopy and Bricks. When you are off to your local, spending your dividend cheque you can take some pleaseure from the $100 I've donated to your wallets. But don't expect a repeat for another few years.

RBD management have plans to close all of the dine in Red Roof Pizza Hut restaurants Minimoke. I guess your experience reinforces why this is probably a good idea! It is many years since I visited one of these myself, and my experience was similar to yours!

Probably the lack of beer/wine is because these dine ins don't have a liquor licence. Actually IIRC Pizza Hut Delcos did trial beer as a menu item a few years back. I don't think there was enough demand to make it work. The hard core pizza and beer lot got their slabs of cans elsewhere.

SNOOPY

[Phaedrus]

Does this mean that "time in the market" is a sales pitch just like "diversification"?

'Fraid so.

Is "Timing the market" possible?

Of course it is. As GTM3442 points out though, "You can't ever time the market exactly" but of course you don't have to. Approximately right is quite good enough. ENP, I take it that you haven't read back through this thread. Click here to see how I used TA to time my entries into RBD, starting buying at 65 cents and continuing on as each indicator triggered. By 80 cents all had fired and I was fully invested. RBD is now approximately triple my average entry price. Not to mention dividends....... You can see that there have been no sell signals triggered since buying.

Is this what successful investors do?

There are many paths to success, ENP. Timing your entries and exits is very, very important, in my opinion.

Here is an update of my RBD chart and indicators :-

[ENP]

Phaedrus, do you just use technical analysis or fundamental or a mix of both?

[Phaedrus]

I use both. Generally speaking I select my stocks fundamentally then use TA to time my entries and exits. If there is ever any conflict between the two, I go with TA.

Have you read the book "What Works on Wall Street"? The author (James P. O'Shaughnessy) found that strategies combining value and momentum work best, outperforming both technical and fundamental approaches used alone.