RBD - Restaurant Brands

[blackcap]

love the word concomitant... have already used it in correspondence.. cheers P

[h2so4]

Greg
Yes I haven't seen anything that has altered RBD's intrinsic value. Infact I toped up on recent sp weakness. You can chalk me down for that one P.

[gregrday]

As an example of what might happen to change the thesis, RBD might decide that they're super-stars of fast food, and bring in another franchise, which will send me running screaming to the hills...
:-)
cheers
Greg

[h2so4]

RBD is a cyclical stock that benefits from recessions where they can achieve exceedingly good margins on weak ingredient prices. If you truely think the market weakness isn't a result of the hardening of of ingredient prices (leading to lower margins) and consumers feeling a bit more confident and being sick of the taste of KFC and spending at other prices (leading to lower sales) you're deluding yourself.

re you "haven't seen anything that has altered RBD's intrinsic value". Neither did Bongo as we came out of the last recession. You can't see it just yet - you'll see it shortly though but the mrkts wiser than you think and guessed it before we'll see it. IMNSHO Mr mrkts got this one spot on.

Your right Belg, I can't see it.

[emearg]

As an example of what might happen to change the thesis, RBD might decide that they're super-stars of fast food, and bring in another franchise, which will send me running screaming to the hills...
:-)
cheers
Greg

I completely agree!!

[Snoopy]

RBD is a cyclical stock that benefits from recessions where they can achieve exceedingly good margins on weak ingredient prices. If you truely think the market weakness isn't a result of the hardening of of ingredient prices (leading to lower margins) and consumers feeling a bit more confident and being sick of the taste of KFC and spending at other prices (leading to lower sales) you're deluding yourself.

re you "haven't seen anything that has altered RBD's intrinsic value". Neither did Bongo as we came out of the last recession. You can't see it just yet - you'll see it shortly though but the mrkts wiser than you think and guessed it before we'll see it. IMNSHO Mr mrkts got this one spot on.

You make a coherent argument Belg. Perhaps you will be proved right. But you should bear in mind ingredient costs tend to be fixed in medium term contracts by RBD management, and are not affected by the 'spot' market.. Threre is little evidence that consumers are feeling more confident. My own expectation is that a double dip recession and a very slow grinding recovery is the most likely outcome. And there is absolutely no evidence that the taste of KFC is becoming less popular. Quite the opposite in fact. Consumption is rising faster than inflation.

So while you and Phaedrus may yet be proved right, I can't see a single piece of evidence in the market, bar a falling RBD share price (which has turned the corner and is recovering again anyway). Short term the market is a voting machine and share prices will be buffetted. Medium term, I can't see such scaremongering scenarios as gaining any traction. At a PE of 9 the market is already pricing in your scenario of doom, so worst case the RBD share price stays still. IMO the only way to go is up from here.

SNOOPY

[h2so4]

I guess Mr Market worries too much.

[winner69]

My own expectation is that a double dip recession and a very slow grinding recovery is the most likely outcome.

You can have a punt on that at iPredict ..... currently about 50 cents to get $1 returnfor the December guarter GDP to be negative so a technical recession is reported (unless they revise Seot to a +ve number)

Odds were much longer a month or so ago .... about 10 cents for $1 return

You are right with your 'espectation' ... go on make a few bob out of it .... good fun

[Stumpynuts]

Hi guys,

How about this for a bit of fun?
I tried the following recipe during the weekend - A so called near exact tasting recipe of KFC made by an American guy, who used to be a former finance worker


http://homecooking.about.com/od/chic...lchicken46.htm


I was stunned, if you actually sit down and let the flavours linger in your mouth for a moment you could actually taste the KFC!
I pretty much ate a whole 15 piece pack to myself in the weekend LOL

[Snoopy]

You can have a punt on that at iPredict ..... currently about 50 cents to get $1 returnfor the December guarter GDP to be negative so a technical recession is reported (unless they revise Seot to a +ve number). Odds were much longer a month or so ago .... about 10 cents for $1 return.

By having my largest shareholding in RBD, I am having a punt Winner. But with an RBD punt, you don't lose your stake money albeit with the downside of a reduced likely return (IMO around 20%).

SNOOPY