RBD - Restaurant Brands

**winner69** · 19-10-2011, 11:35 AM

Originally Posted by Snoopy

The October 19th headline profit result I predict will be headline poor. However, I believe that stripping out the non cash items, RBD has the cashflow to maintain their dividend at last year’s 7.0cps fully imputed. Likewise I will be maintaining my holding of RBD shares by not selling any. I don’t expect the RBD share price to be affected much because at $2.20 it is trading on such a modest earnings multiple.

SNOOPY

Market doesn't quite get it or they don't believe the guidance

RBD says H1 earnings down $5m and $20 plus comes off the market cap even though management says they will make the same in H2 this year as last year - so H1 only a one off sort of thing

Probably not time to piss punters off ... esp reducing dividends

**Anna Naum** · 02-11-2011, 06:40 PM

Collins Foods in AU (owner of KFC and Sizzler in QLD) announced a shocker downgrade today less then 3 months after floating (ex private equity).

Downgraded by about 25% its 2012 proforma NPAT, stock down 24%.

**winner69** · 14-12-2011, 07:34 PM

So the new concept is soon to be launched

If they bring Audrina and Kim to the grand openings they should do well ..... or maybe a couple of NZ chicks should be used .... sex sells burgers according to carl

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post...for-Wellington

**iceman** · 15-12-2011, 09:24 AM

I'm looking forward to next years spiced up (hopefully) dividends, Audrina, Kim, Padma and Paris will make my day

**Snoopy** · 15-12-2011, 06:14 PM

Originally Posted by winner69

So the new concept is soon to be launched

The market seems to be happy with a move into an upmarket burger chain. Share price looks stable in a down market. At least management have now answered the question: "Where will the growth come from?"

I think it encouraging that RBD have elected not to go with Taco Bell. That shows independence of thought is still there at board level, despite the strong existing links with Taco Bell's parent YUM Brands.

The main negative I see is the restricted development in Auckland due to Michael Jones already operating a couple of outlets there. Michael may be a strong man, but corporates are always stronger. The long term strategy will be to wait for Michael to age then 'make the tackle' as the life force saps out of him. That will unite all of the Carl Junior Burger outlets under the RBD banner.

SNOOPY

**777** · 15-12-2011, 06:22 PM

Carls Junior? While I have bought from their I would hardly say it was an upmarket Burger chain. OK but middle of the road. Not a good move IMHO. NZ is too small to support extra fast food joints that are mediocre.

**ratkin** · 15-12-2011, 06:39 PM

Agreed , they already gaining bad press for having Americas most unhealthy burgers. Some kind of mexican style chain would of been much better , shame they couldnt get taco bell

**brucey09** · 15-12-2011, 07:17 PM

Snr. Rat
Mex is no answer - NZ not likes

**emearg** · 15-12-2011, 07:37 PM

Moving into Australia was their last grand plan for growth wasn't it? That didn't go very well.

Personally I think they should concentrate on making their existing business much better than they are. Pizza Hutt and Starbucks are a worry.

I remember attending their AGM three or four years ago when they first mentioned possible new business options. I remember being rather scared as Pizza Hutt was doing even worse than it currently is. I remember thinking if they did go ahead with new brands I would struggle to find reasons not to sell sooner rather than later. My feelings haven't changed as they haven't demonstrated any real ability to solve their existing problems. It seems a little bit like a couple having relationship difficulties deciding to have a baby.

Thankfully I don't need to worry as I sold a while ago to buy a house but I will watch this one with much interest.