RBD - Restaurant Brands

[bull....]

heading back to the bottom of that trading range

Now back at the top of the range be interesting if we can break out this time - 3rd attempt in nearly 2 yrs

[Snoopy]

Now back at the top of the range be interesting if we can break out this time - 3rd attempt in nearly 2 yrs

RBD is my biggest NZX holding. It is surprising to me that many commentators late year considered it fully or overvalued. Even my broker rang and recommended that I sell down my holding because if anything happened at RBD it would have a significant effect on my portfolio overall. At the time I looked around at other retail shares to diversify into and found nothing better. Nevertheless, instead of having all my retail eggs in one basket I made a big decision - to diversify.

1/ I would risk adjust my overall retail holding so that the trend of buying alternative retail goods over the internet had little effect.
2/ I looked for retail investments that were not beholden to greedy mall owners ramping up their rents annually.
3/ I decided to stick to the food sector as that is generally fairly recession proof.
4/ I split my food investments into four: the first KFC an established cash cow. The second Carl's Junior, an emerging brand with national sales prospects. The third Pizza Hut, where some clever reworking of price points and the disposal of less well performed stores had the potential to revive profits in what was seen as a tired brand. The fourth, Starbucks, which is similarly resizing down to a profitable core.

In summary, I actively decided to do nothing at all. With the growing sickness among almost all other retailers this has proven to be a very successful strategy. Having followed this company for some time, I would be very surprised if there is a significant break out, either on the upside or the downside. Current dividend levels I believe fully support the current share price. And growth initiatives should mitigate the usual negative effect of rising interest rates. It is steady as she goes for me, as those dividends continue to roll in.

SNOOPY

[percy]

On Monday evening I attended an excellent presentation put on by Macquaries.
They felt the NZ ecomony was improving,and with low unemployment the out look for RBD was looking very bright.Increasing sales leading to increased dividends.
The trust I am a trustee of brought a parcel of RBD shares on Tuesday afternoon at $2.92.

[shonen knife]

I almost pulled the trigger on getting some of these a few months back when they were in the $2.70 range as I thought Carl's Junior would be a winner. I still kind of wish that I did get some, but I am not sure that Carl's is enough to offset KFC and Pizza Hutt—especially if Carl's is just a fad and Burger Fuel expands. Carl's is still very popular here in Singapore whereas KFC and Pizza Hut doesn't seem to have a great brand image (at least to me anyway). Looking at Carl's Junior's Facebook page it seems like the service and standards are pretty piss poor—although people likely to bother commenting are usually the ones who are unhappy with it.

I would think that in an improving economy, people would be keen to avoid Pizza Hut, Starbucks and KFC and replace them with more premium options like Hell's Pizza, local coffee shops and avoid fried chicken altogether...

In saying that, I would still consider getting some if it comes back down to the $2.70 range.

[Bjauck]

I would think that in an improving economy, people would be keen to avoid Pizza Hut, Starbucks and KFC and replace them with more premium options like Hell's Pizza, local coffee shops and avoid fried chicken altogether...

In saying that, I would still consider getting some if it comes back down to the $2.70 range.

RBD was one of my first equity investments. Since then they have provided me with way above market average returns. Mind you, the SP has been on a rollercoaster, and timing would be so important with this shareholding. Way back when I bought RBD, healthy eating was a hot topic and I had doubts that RBD may be caught on the wrong-side of the health issue and the Political Correctness line.

Should one avoid companies that sell or have or use sugary foods, fatty foods, carcinogens, dangerous items, weapons, chemicals, artificial additives, rainforest clearing, environment polluters, animal testing, poor wages, child labour, bribery, price fixing. Ethics, societal fashion and possible government regulation can be relevant to so many companies.

[shonen knife]

RBD was one of my first equity investments. Since then they have provided me with way above market average returns. Mind you, the SP has been on a rollercoaster, and timing would be so important with this shareholding. Way back when I bought RBD, healthy eating was a hot topic and I had doubts that RBD may be caught on the wrong-side of the health issue and the Political Correctness line.

Should one avoid companies that sell or have or use sugary foods, fatty foods, carcinogens, dangerous items, weapons, chemicals, artificial additives, rainforest clearing, environment polluters, animal testing, poor wages, child labour, bribery, price fixing. Ethics, societal fashion and possible government regulation can be relevant to so many companies.

Sure, but for the record, I am not avoiding it because it is bad for you, more that it is low quality bad stuff. E.g. in a good economy I would buy Suntory Hakushu and not even think about touching Johnnie Walker Red. Not trying to be a snob, but why anyone goes to KFC, Starbucks or Pizza Hut I will never know.

[Bjauck]

Fair point. I did misinterpret. Taking the other viewpoint, perhaps in a good economy, people undertake big investments, such as buying houses cars and other big ticket items, leaving less for takeaways, premium or otherwise. Personally I don't think Hell's is of better quality than Pizza Hut, and I like KFC ( as a treat when I visit with my shareholder voucher!)

[Bjauck]

Nice work winner. Could it be the curiousity/novelty factor is wearing off, are customers trying and getting turned off the product, or are they simply dying off from the fat intake?

In such short time?

Saturated fat is not bad for you: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/he...rt-expert.html , Of course as with any research...you always need to check to see who is funding it.

I would not do a "supersize me" on sushi, chcocolate bars, fish and chips, or muesli either.

BTW, I support GST being removed from fresh fruit and veg.

[Harvey Specter]

Saturated fat is not bad for you

BTW, I support GST being removed from fresh fruit and veg.

My understanding is saturated fat is not bad provided your body is in good shape (I dont mean physically though it would help). It causes issues when other issues are present.

Re GST: Great idea but an implementation nightmare. Keep GST simple in my opinion.

[baller18]

I almost pulled the trigger on getting some of these a few months back when they were in the $2.70 range as I thought Carl's Junior would be a winner. I still kind of wish that I did get some, but I am not sure that Carl's is enough to offset KFC and Pizza Hutt—especially if Carl's is just a fad and Burger Fuel expands. Carl's is still very popular here in Singapore whereas KFC and Pizza Hut doesn't seem to have a great brand image (at least to me anyway). Looking at Carl's Junior's Facebook page it seems like the service and standards are pretty piss poor—although people likely to bother commenting are usually the ones who are unhappy with it.

I would think that in an improving economy, people would be keen to avoid Pizza Hut, Starbucks and KFC and replace them with more premium options like Hell's Pizza, local coffee shops and avoid fried chicken altogether...

In saying that, I would still consider getting some if it comes back down to the $2.70 range.

I like your point about if Carl's is enough to offset pizza hut or KFC, however, I was taking a stroll around the city, and burgerfuel was dead, whereas, carl was busy...

Don't forget in an improving economy, it is still the rich who gets richer, whereas, the poor still stays poor...