RBD - Restaurant Brands

[Filthy]

California a big problem when factoring in inflation!!

must be the worlds most competitive fast food industry in cali. from what I recall, pretty much a competitor on every corner block. highly saturated market. not surprising they are struggling over there.

[X-men]

Inflation is going down...food prices and wages also stagnant....

Would this greasy stock come back alive???

[nztx]

Inflation is going down...food prices and wages also stagnant....

Would this greasy stock come back alive???

You want a Bouncy burger now with a side of chips with long legs ?

[JSwan]

You want a Bouncy burger now with a side of chips with long legs ?

Only if they’re giving you 10 minute paid breaks 😊

[X-men]

Greasy stock on the top of NZX best performance

[nztx]

Greasy stock on the top of NZX best performance

SP 05.01.23 $5.60

SP 29.12.23 $3.98

Net Minus (-1.62)

20.4.23 Cash Div 0.16

Net Plus / Minus (- 1.46)


= Minus (-26.07%) for the year


https://www.nzx.com/instruments/RBD


How much more greasy will things get with the prevailing economic conditions in 2024 ?

[X-men]

I meant top performer of the last day of trading...up 5%

I do think things will get better... inflation is easing....n interest rate will start to go down...the last announcement said the inflation and high interest subdued the profit margin. The prices of thier menus are increasing...

The world is addicted to fast food n sugar. Especially now things are tough.... family of 4 ..go to cafe or restaurant to eat .. easily $150-200....fast food....$60-80 to feed 4 people...

[ThaiJohn]

Thoughts on RBD. Looking cheap at the mo. I've got a lazy 20K to chuck at it.

[nztx]

Thoughts on RBD. Looking cheap at the mo. I've got a lazy 20K to chuck at it.

NPAT for H1 2023 was just 2.2 Mil on $673m Revenue

Gross Profits reported in 3 recent periods dont appear to be showing sign of being runaway stars

Loans are static in Jun 22, Dec 22 & Jun 23 @ approx $280m then Jun 23 @ $290 m

I would say further pressure still incoming on Overheads - Leases, Oncosts, Staffing, Interest/ Financing
and that ignores economic conditions deteriorating in a cooling off Goldfish bowl after H1 23 reporting.

Will further dividends be seen or not ; or cash retained to reduce loans ?

With a majority stakeholder in place, possibly no great incentive for future dividend payments ?

Net Equity 2022 $293 m dipping to $280m 2023

Equity Ratio 20.6% dipping to 19.6% H2 22 & 19.6% in H1 23

Current Assets/Liabilities ratio was negative in all three periods Jun 22, Dec 22 & Jun 23
possibly more so if adverse winds present after H1 23 reporting.

But that might be quite okay for basically retail cash on the counter fast tucker businesses

Will there be further rapid improvement in bottom line past H1 23 - if so when ?

Will there be a dip into the red for H2 2023 perhaps even further past that ?

I know which way my gut feeling is pointing & that's to the conservative
but I may be wrong

Will the Investors flavour of the day be a further dip to add to more recent down the slide $15 to less than $4 in the past 2 years, if H2 23 sees Red Ink and Dividend prospects evaporate for another long holiday ?

If things get really tough - Cap Raise an attractive menu addition - anyone ?

Lets face it - if it's not being earned, the ceiling room on borrowings is narrow - then it has to come from somewhere to sure up the expanded chain of fast food jobs, unless some of the empire gets hocked off to fill a gap ..


Lots of nice Intangible padding on the Sheet here too $360m @ H1 23 and Beancounter's Fantasy world Creative Right of Use BS bunkim to the tune of $620m on assets side & $733m on the liability side

[ThaiJohn]

Thanks nztx for that thoroughly good review. Much appreciated.