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  1. #771
    Member Viking's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Who View Post
    McDonalds US just had a profit downgrade. The economy in the US is much worst than expected if the average Joe is not eating out at fast food joints.
    It is quite a different story we hear here in NZ.
    McDonald is reportedly doing quite well~

    http://nz.news.yahoo.com/080128/8/3rip.html

    CHICAGO (AFP) - Global fast-food giant McDonald's Corp. on Monday announced that its fourth-quarter profit rose by a more-than-expected 1.27 billion dollars.

    The Oakbrook, Illinois-headquartered firm said its profit was bolstered by slightly higher US sales, and as food sales across Asia/Pacific, the Middle East and Africa rocketed by 11.4 percent at comparable stores from the same quarter of 2006.

    Overall revenues for the October-December quarter rose six percent to 5.75 billion dollars as same-store sales around the globe increased 6.7 percent.
    Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.
    --- Albert Einstein

  2. #772
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    BRICKS I came back here from Australia to get away from your aussie logic or should I call you THE KING.
    Possum The Cat

  3. #773
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    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    It is quite a different story we hear here in NZ.
    McDonald is reportedly doing quite well~
    Maccas global might be OK but the US side is looking gloomier: “CHICAGO (AP) - McDonald's Corp. showed its first sign of vulnerability to the U.S. economic slowdown Monday and uneasy investors responded by selling off the fast-food chain's stock despite its booming international sales and healthy $1.27 billion profit.
    The company said sales were flat last month at U.S. restaurants open more than a year, blaming winter storms but also acknowledging ``softer consumer spending'' as Americans tightened their wallets in a volatile economy.
    “Chief Executive Jim Skinner said customers showed more of a preference last month for items on its dollar menu. He said the weakened economy is likely to knock 1 to 2 percentage points off its U.S. comparable sales in the near term, with January U.S. sales roughly 1.5 percent above a year ago.
    ``We're recession-resistant, not recession-proof,'' Skinner said on a conference call.
    http://www.gateway.net/pf/story.jsp?...80.htm&sc=1310

  4. #774
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    Quote Originally Posted by POSSUM THE CAT View Post
    BRICKS I came back here from Australia to get away from your aussie logic or should I call you THE KING.
    What ever happened to THE KING?

    I recall that THE KING would correct you if you agreed with him, but made the mistake of phrasing it differently...
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  5. #775
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    Cool BRICKS is THE KING or is HE.. ????

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve View Post
    What ever happened to THE KING?

    I recall that THE KING would correct you if you agreed with him, but made the mistake of phrasing it differently...
    THERE is an old saying but true :-

    YOU may call me any name you like
    But don't call me late for DINNER..

    Never trust any one, this is MONEY..

  6. #776
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Please all rise for this session of the Sharechat internet court, Judge Mick 100 presiding.

    The defendent, Snoopy, is here to answer the following question

    "Before you decide to hold or buy more shares in a company whose shareprice is plumetting in value - eg, restarant brands
    Ask your self this question:"

    "Is there a possibility that my decision making process is being affected by 'escaslation of commitment'?"

    "So how about it Snoopy? Are you suffering from escalation of commitment?"

    ---------

    A fair question Judge Mick. Now please allow me to present my evidence.

    I am a foundation shareholder of RBD. I acquired my first shares in June 1997 at an effective $2.03. In March 1998 I purchased some more at an equivalent price of $1.29. I have made several purchases in subsequent periods, priced as follows: September 1998 62c (equivalent), February 2000 $1.20 (equivalent) and another batch at $1.18 (equivalent). More purchases were made in September 2000 at $1.14, March 2002 at $2.08, July 2002 at $1.71, September 2003 at $1.25, September 2004 at $1.26, December 2004 at $1.26, March 2005 at $1.29, July 2005 at $1.60, October 2005 at $1.30 and finally later in that same month at $1.24. My weighted average purchase price is $1.26. My weighted average share holding time is 2.5 years. (That's because most of my holding has been bought in the last couple of years, during the time RBD has suffered from the most derision on this forum.)

    Based on a market price of $1.33 I have made an average capital gain of 2.5cps per year held. The current net yield is 10cps, or 12.5cps if we add the annualised capital gain. That gives a gross yield annual return of 13.8%. Now, I'm not going to claim that is a fantastic return, although it is double what you would earn in the bank. But I do see that return as more than satisfactory, given the conservative nature of the underlying investment.

    Some people see successful investment, in the cricket analogy, as a process of hitting as many sixes as you can. Personally I prefer a technique which gets less headlines but over the long term can be just as rewarding if not more so (because you are taking less risks). I refer to the 'pushing for singles' method. Just go about your job quietly clocking up the runs and keeping the scoreboard ticking over.

    Being an investor in RBD won't score you many bonus swoons at cocktail parties. But it's a great investment to put your mother into. That's because my quoted returns are IMO, quite sustainable - even if the business doesn't grow at all! That's why RBD should be a core holding of any income based portfolio. For this whole century, RBD has had a consistent dividend income record that puts *all* the listed property trusts to shame.

    As for the 'plummeting share price', there has been no long term plummet since 1998, since the inital fall from grace after the IPO. The share price today is more or less what it was in 1998. Since RBD have paid out nearly all of their profits as dividends since then, this is to be expected.

    The case for investment, since 1998 has always been based on dividend yield. Investing in this company from a dividend perspective makes as much sense in 2006 as it did in 1998 and virtually every year in between. Therefore I reject the 'escalation of commitment' argument. If you look at 'new' investment in RBD in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006 it has made huge sense every year, for eight different annually discrete reasons.

    RBD, highly profitable, highly reliable and proven as a sound investment for every year of this century. Judge Mick, I rest my case.

    SNOOPY

    discl: hold RBD, and very satisfied with the investment performance.
    I have this post pinned up on my office wall. When anyone rubbishes TA i look up at this and smile. I think we all can make mistakes but without a sell system this is what can happen. I have been rubbished on the NZO thread for running a tight stop loss by the brain dead who think a stop loss is not for them. This can happen to most companies i only use this as an extreme example. Macdunk

  7. #777
    Senior Member Nitaa's Avatar
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    Duncan I havent pinned this up on my wall. In saying that, I do beleive that Snoppy got his views on fundamentals wrong with this stock.

    This stock is a very mature one in the sense that kfc, pizza, and to a much lesser degree starbucks have been in the market for some time. kfc and pizza hut will need to change tac to dramatically improve their sales and/or margins.

    Refits, closing of stores etc couple by the fact that i do not se much room for expansion under their current format puts this company behind the eight ball.

    So in my view only, this relevance for me with TA had nothing to do with it. it was purely fundamentals. TA in many cases come are the fundamentals unless insiders are at play and then thats a different story.

  8. #778
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    NITA, Is there a possibility that my decision making process is suffering escalation of commitment. Its nothing to do with fundamentals or technical analysis its rail track thinking unable to change direction blinded to reality. I argued with SNOOPY for years over RBD now i find myself arguing on other threads about the benefits of a running a simple stop loss to the blind all over again. Its a smart person that learns from others mistakes. Macdunk

  9. #779
    Senior Member Nitaa's Avatar
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    not sure if we are both on track here. you put up your argument for a stop loss in perhaps in snoppy's case that would have been a wise move.

    snoppy for a long time seemed less interested about the shareprice and more concerned about the divy. Personally i thought his thinking process was wrong but that was my opinion.

    having said all that duncan, what everyones risk stratergies are at the time will also influence on what type of investment they want. Its fair to say that a nw scholl leaver can and should take more risks (calculted) than someone enertering retirement that is already fincially confortable.

    What you seem to think is that everyone should have a 5% trailing stop loss which seems totally stupid to me. Here you may have a middle income worker working long hours to better themselves financially and they dont have the time to watch the markets, readjust there position day in day out. With a 5% trailing stop loss they are going to get kicked out of the market every few weeks or months and then they have to work out where their money is going next. For that reason, a more conservative stock such as your top 10 or 15 stocks would make logical sense as these investors will look for steady growth, capital gain and perhaps dividends. Ultimately its all about their current position.

    Most of my work is currently done on a computer so i can have access to my information at the click of the mouse. Yet although i study the markets a litle bit i dont and cant be bothered spending more than 30 minutes a day at the very most in researching. My time is too important for that. So perhaps you need to consider everyones current position to understand why some invest in retail, conservative divy co's, speccy's or otherwise. I pulled out about 70% of my investment in stocks last year. Not because i thought the market was going to go down or crumble but i wanted to use that money somewhere else.

    Back to Snoppy. Although i never agreed with his decision because they are far from my thoughts, I do understand why he has invested in such company's. That my friend is what makes life so flippin interesting. Everyone sees things differently and it 100% depends on what angle they look at it from. The last sentence explains the reasons the reason of why everyone does things so differently.

  10. #780
    Senior Member Nitaa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by duncan macgregor View Post
    NITA, Is there a possibility that my decision making process is suffering escalation of commitment. Its nothing to do with fundamentals or technical analysis its rail track thinking unable to change direction blinded to reality. I argued with SNOOPY for years over RBD now i find myself arguing on other threads about the benefits of a running a simple stop loss to the blind all over again. Its a smart person that learns from others mistakes. Macdunk
    I dont know what you mean by "excalation of commitment".

    The problem with your argument is that is your way and not the vast majority's way. Your way doesnt make it better or worse than someone who has a stop loss of 4% o 10%. If i had applied your system to my portfolio i can honestly tell you i would be owrse off. The main reason being is my stocks over the last 5 years have predominatly been energy related (mostly oil). Even though i would have done ok using your system i would have found myself buying the same stock on a continual basis make small gains and losses along the way. In the end where i would have ost out most is through brokerage fee.

    So to prevent repeating yourself too often, I suggest you try and look through other peoples eyes to see why they dont follow your system. Most of the time its not because they think your system is useless or doesnt work, its because that system is not for them.

    You are making one example of Snoppys losses over a certain period to back up your claim which is wrong even though in hindsight your system would prove to be better. The other side of the coin is when stocks are climbing, your system kicks you out on an uptrend and then the next question is, when do you buy back in? Under your system you may end up buying in at a lower or higher cost.

    When the stock is trending down (easier to see after the event) then your system will save truckloads but the pposite will happen on a stock that is performing well.

    Now hopefully you see that all things are not black and white.. its all grey and very subjective depending on your angle.

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