sharetrader
Page 82 of 291 FirstFirst ... 327278798081828384858692132182 ... LastLast
Results 811 to 820 of 2905
  1. #811
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,314

    Default

    SNOOPY, On SHARECHAT sept 2003 you stated that you were happy to buy more RBD at $2-08. Considering you averaged down to get to that point and have frequently stated over the years since, about averaging down. Now that RBD are 80c, TEL, TUA,SKC,and SCT are in similar downtrends amongst some of your other companies, dont you think fundamental analysis is a load of old rubbish doing it your way. Any system is a load of rubbish that has no sell system, we all pick a clanger from time to time.
    The market is heading for some major corrections in 2008 hope you wake up to yourself in time to bail out. Macdunk

  2. #812
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Nita View Post
    What you are talking about is IF. Do you reasonably expect RBD to return 6 cps in divvy this year? You again talk about IF.
    RBD paid a dividend of 6cps over the last 12 months. Management have stated they expect an improved performance for this year and there have been no further comments under the continuous disclosure requirements. So yes, I do expect a dividend of 6cps over the coming year.

    IF the sp rose to 90 cps in 12 months you have a reasonable case. IF it stays stagnant or drops you are in the poop again.
    If the share price is stagnant I earn a gross yield of over 11%. I can live with that.

    Your arguments are now based on hope and without fundamentals.
    IF you can guarantee me those figures I WOULD JUMP IN IMMEDIATELY.
    I have posted more RBD fundamentals on this thread than you would find in any broker research house back room. I don't invest hard earned money on 'hope', you can be assured of that!

    You *do* know there are no guarantees with investment , right Nita? For all I know RBD will be subject to another takeover bid now that all the KFC relicensing issues have been sorted.
    But I'm not betting on it. I don't need to sell out in twelve months. So if things take a turn for the worse I will just sit there on the share register for a bit longer. I am v-e-r-y patient.

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  3. #813
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by duncan macgregor View Post
    SNOOPY, On SHARECHAT sept 2003 you stated that you were happy to buy more RBD at $2-08. Considering you averaged down to get to that point and have frequently stated over the years since, about averaging down. Now that RBD are 80c
    I may have bought some RBD shares at $2.08 in 2003 but I did not 'average down' to do so.
    I 'averaged up' which, as I have stated elsewhere before, was a mistake as I was not prepared to 'sell out' when the price went the other way.

    You rightly observe Macdunk that RBD are now trading at 80c. So I will make my investment decisions on that basis, without any reference to what the share price was. Unlike you, I don't invest by looking in the rear vision mirror.

    The market is heading for some major corrections in 2008 hope you wake up to yourself in time to bail out. Macdunk
    RBD has fallen around 9% this year. If you compare that with what 'the market' has done you will see that holding a share like RBD is part of my plan to ride out any correction.

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  4. #814
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    782

    Default

    [QUOTE=Dr_Who;190106]Was at Starbucks Queen St the other day with the Mrs. The staff was grumpy, the place was dirty and smells. QUOTE]

    Unfortunately, this sounds like the KFC (new format one) I have visited lately. Certainly won't be back in a hurry.

  5. #815
    Senior Member Nitaa's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    937

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    RBD paid a dividend of 6cps over the last 12 months. Management have stated they expect an improved performance for this year and there have been no further comments under the continuous disclosure requirements. So yes, I do expect a dividend of 6cps over the coming year.



    If the share price is stagnant I earn a gross yield of over 11%. I can live with that.



    I have posted more RBD fundamentals on this thread than you would find in any broker research house back room. I don't invest hard earned money on 'hope', you can be assured of that!

    You *do* know there are no guarantees with investment , right Nita? For all I know RBD will be subject to another takeover bid now that all the KFC relicensing issues have been sorted.
    But I'm not betting on it. I don't need to sell out in twelve months. So if things take a turn for the worse I will just sit there on the share register for a bit longer. I am v-e-r-y patient.

    SNOOPY
    Lets say you are correct and they payout 6 cps equates to 7.5% yield at a current 80 cps if the sharprice remains stagnet. This is still less that what you can acheive at a major trading bank on call.

    If the slow down comes into the market as expected, KFC will do ok in relative terms, Pizza Hut not quite and starbucks will suffer. This isnt a growth company as i see it. I see it as a sunset stock that is slowly dwindling away.

    Maybe there is a chance for another takeover which to me looks like the best chance for shareholders to make something out of this stock.

    Defensively there are worse stocks but hard to see current returns making this shae viable. Are they continuing to downsize some of their stores?

  6. #816
    Senior Member Nitaa's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    937

    Default

    if you want steady growth without too muck risk then i suggest you put the money into a one of the major banks.

    Even then i see some of these banks are getting a bit over exposed to the mortgage lending sector such as the asb

  7. #817
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Nita View Post
    Lets say you are correct and they payout 6 cps equates to 7.5% yield at a current 80 cps if the sharprice remains stagnant. This is still less that what you can acheive at a major trading bank on call.
    Not correct Nita. That 7.5% dividend from RBD is *tax paid*. In order to earn the equivalent from the bank you would have to earn 11% (based on a 33% tax rate). You can't get anywhere near that, even on a term deposit special at a bank let alone a call account.

    Are they continuing to downsize some of their stores?
    Yes. All the Pizza Hut red roof restaurants are closing as the leases expire.

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  8. #818
    Senior Member Nitaa's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    937

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Not correct Nita. That 7.5% dividend from RBD is *tax paid*. In order to earn the equivalent from the bank you would have to earn 11% (based on a 33% tax rate). You can't get anywhere near that, even on a term deposit special at a bank let alone a call account.



    Yes. All the Pizza Hut red roof restaurants are closing as the leases expire.

    SNOOPY
    Then that equates to a reasonable return subject to the sp staying at 80 cps this time next year. Im not sure where the bottom is, maybe its zero or now. For me the fundamentals are not as good as you portray them. I guess why i have never held

  9. #819
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    anzac
    Posts
    1,127

    Default Nita to BUY RBD Stock. ??

    Quote Originally Posted by Nita View Post
    Then that equates to a reasonable return subject to the sp staying at 80 cps this time next year. Im not sure where the bottom is, maybe its zero or now. For me the fundamentals are not as good as you portray them. I guess why i have never held
    WHY stocks stagnate is because NO one buys them [that's brain power] that what cause`s bargains that's why BRICKS keep`s buying them when at rock bottom price`s nothing ever stays down, with RBD paying Div`s and a turnover of $303 Million what more do you want,
    in AU BRICKS buys SHL a blood test out fit because every one needs a test sometime, just like eating KFC..

  10. #820
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Nita View Post
    Im not sure where the bottom is, maybe its zero or now.
    Picking the bottom between yesterdays '80c' closing price and 'zero' is a pretty big spread Nita. I am certain history will prove your prediction 100% correct. But I am also certain your prediction is of no use whatsoever to any investor.

    While recognising that nothing in investment is ever certain, I do suggest you do enough homework to give you a better idea of what a share is worth than that! Hopefully you do in the shares you actually invest in!

    To give you some idea of where to start from, I usually assume that if a certain management team has been able to ring a certain performance out of a company in the past, the base line is that -at some time- they will be able to achieve that performance in the future. 'At some time' could mean 'next year' or it could mean the business cycle will have to go full cycle (however long that takes). Therefore you either have to believe in your ability to 'time the market' OR you have to have the patience to 'hold on' until the business cycle turns. As you have probably figured out, I favour the latter strategy.

    One of the arguments against 'holding on' is the opportunity cost. But if you buy high yielding shares then I would argue that because you are getting a significantly higher income
    than bank deposits what you actually experience is an 'opportunity gain' not an 'opportunity cost' while you are waiting.

    Another argument against holding a high yielding share is that they may be high yielding because the company is in danger of going broke, or at least suffering a capital raising that will result in equity dilution. It is very important to check for that possibility. I do not consider RBD to be in that situation.

    Another possibility is that the whole industry is suffering a 'step dislocation change' that means the market will never return to what it was. This is particularly likely to happen in technology businesses which is why as a general rule I avoid them (Telecom being my own obvious exception). You have to keep your mind open to possibility of an industry step change. But your investment decisions should not be ruled by 'fear of change'. Quite the opposite. You should position yourself to take advantage of 'fear of change' because the market has this persistant habit of overreacting.

    What I am outlining here is that *if you take certain precautions* I think you can earn excellent risk adjusted returns by buying up companies that are down on their luck.

    To clarify, I don't think RBD's market position over the last few years is just a result of bad luck. There have been strategic management blunders. But remember we are no longer being asked to pay over $2 for these shares. The price is only around 80c. That leads me to another investment rule of thumb that I can't claim to have invented myself. That rule is:

    "always invest in a business sthat any idiot can run because sooner or later that is exactly who you will find in the managing directors seat!"

    The takeaway food business is about having an appropriate marketing campaign, getting the location of your outlets right, meeting quality standards and giving your customers good value. Not every company gets all of that right all of the time. But the process is not 'rocket science'.

    So here is my prediction. If the bottom for the RBD share price is not 80c (an 11% gross yield) , then the bottom will be 73c (a 12% gross yield). That's because if you can borrow money at the 'long term corporate borrowing rate' of 8% you can fund the purchase of RBD shares from dividends alone. Thus 'in theory' the demand for RBD shares over the business cycle at 73c is unlimited. The share price can't go any lower.

    On the upside if Pizza Hut closed their doors tomorrow, then profits at RBD would double. That translates to a share price of $1.60 on a yield of 11%. Now I don't for a moment think Pizza Hut will be closed down, due to contractual obligations with master franchise holder 'YUM'. But all RBD have to do is get Pizza Hut to break even (after tax), surely not an impossible task, and an RBD share price of $1.60 is a possibility.

    So there is my prediction: A price range of 73c to $1.60 over the next few years for RBD shares. Buying shares at 80c is not a safe bet, as no investment is safe. But I think it is a 'good bet' nonetheless.

    For me the fundamentals are not as good as you portray them.
    You are entitled to your opinion Nita. But I don't feel I have been overly optimistic nor pessimistic in my views on the company. If you think I have, in a more specific sense, please point out what assumptions I have made that you disagree with.

    SNOOPY

    discl: hold RBD. Will probably look to reduce my holding when the share price approaches $1.60
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •