RBD - Restaurant Brands

[Onthemoney]

All I am going to say is that no agreement with Yum then RBD are left with lease commitments. The agreements with Yum I am sure are not tied to the lease terms on all stores. Remember Snoopy that those that have negotiated terms over the past 10 years have moved on.

They were just wage/salary slaves that have moved onto another company to collect their payment. There have been enormous stuff ups in this company leases, purchases and marketing decisions that have been made by those that have spent your money as a shareholder. By and by it is not their money so they are willing to experiment....

[Snoopy]

As things stand right now, we probably concur on other things as well. I agree with you that RBD is unlikely to fall much further, and that buying at around 80 cents could be seen as a good entry point for anyone wanting to buy into this stock. In short, it wouldn't surprise me if you have finally got RBD "right". To me, however, the most important question is this. How could you have got RBD so wrong for so long? I see it as a blunder of significant proportions and a serious indictment of your system. Forgive me for posting it here

Snoopy, but this 2002 post encapsulates the quintessence of your approach. Here you are, already holding RBD, buying yet more and still averaging down ("topping up") at $1.75.

The quality and depth of your analysis is truly impressive, though. (I am NOT being sarcastic)

So painstaking.
So measured.
So erudite.
So prudent.
So meticulous.

Yet so wrong.

I am glad you brought up that post from 2002 on RBD of mine Phaedrus. I highlighted it myself on the 'Fundamentals is Useless Thread' on the other channel on 25th February 2008 as an example of what 'not to do'.

I certainly did not do well buying RBD at $1.75, even though I wasn't averaging down as you claim I was doing. I did learn a lot from this 'mistake' though. The problem was the preliminary screening criteria showed that the 'Method of Buffett' would not work with this share. So I ignored that, simply assumed that for the next year the company results would be much better so that I could use the 'Method of Buffett' and did it anyway. 'Making up' results so that I could use this method was as bad mistake. I am not sure what possessed me to do it - perhaps it was plain old greed. Anyway I got my comeuppance, and not only that, the mistake was preserved on the internet for all to see. But I learned an important lesson. I don't make up results any more to justify my investment decisions!

Having said all that, I don't think that old post from 2002 read too badly. It was titled 'Buffespeculation' to let people know there was a 'speculative' element to what I was posting. I also posted as a caveat that

"Victoria may prove a difficult stalking ground for the pizza arm in Australia"

How prophetic that statement turned out to be! The other mistake I made was that I assumed that if Australia didn't pan out that RBD could get out at no cost. In fact it cost them $30m to get out of Victoria! Chalk that mistake up to naievity!

All in all though, if you read the 2002 post in its entirety noting all the caveats along the way was it so wrong? I actually think it reads quite well and is to some extent almost prophetic all these years later. I even got the 10% rate of return correct. The only mistake was that the 10% figure should have had a negative sign in front of it ;-P

SNOOPY

discl: (still) hold RBD, but no longer analyze it using the 'Method of Buffett'.

[Snoopy]

All I am going to say is that no agreement with Yum then RBD are left with lease commitments. The agreements with Yum I am sure are not tied to the lease terms on all stores. Remember Snoopy that those that have negotiated terms over the past 10 years have moved on.

They were just wage/salary slaves that have moved onto another company to collect their payment. There have been enormous stuff ups in this company leases, purchases and marketing decisions that have been made by those that have spent your money as a shareholder. By and by it is not their money so they are willing to experiment....

I hear what you are saying 'Onthemoney'. I did query RBD on franchise costs a few years ago. I was rather startled by how readily they closed leases and wrote off store franchise fees just so they could resite a store a couple of blocks away. I found it hard to believe that an owner operator would act in the same way.

But I guess leaving a shop in the wrong place could be thought of as being pig headed as well. Then again I am not a Restaurateur, so what would I know ;-P ?

SNOOPY

[duncan macgregor]

SNOOPY, I told you a great number of years ago that RBD is a dog. You have argued the point buying more, and more, of something worth less and less. We are now heading into a recession, with your investing style setting you up to losing the lot. Any one with half a brain wont swim against the tide, you wait until the tide turns, then swim with it.
RBD sold its kennel for an overseas trip, then leased the kennel back which was a huge mistake as i told you at the time.
They followed that by spending huge ammounts doing the kennel up. The bad times are upon us they pay leases when they might have been mortgage free if they had stuck to their knitting. The best way to expand a business is pay the mortgage off first, this can be used to borrow cheaper money for further expansion.
In the bad times the business is in a good position to compete being rent free. RBD are now in a very bad position, owning nothing, with the bad times now upon us. All you have to do is think back to the last time you heard a kid ask to go to a RBD restaurant. I cant think of one can you?. Macdunk

[BRICKS]

SNOOPY, I told you a great number of years ago that RBD is a dog. You have argued the point buying more, and more, of something worth less and less. We are now heading into a recession, with your investing style setting you up to losing the lot. Any one with half a brain wont swim against the tide, you wait until the tide turns, then swim with it.
RBD sold its kennel for an overseas trip, then leased the kennel back which was a huge mistake as i told you at the time.
They followed that by spending huge ammounts doing the kennel up. The bad times are upon us they pay leases when they might have been mortgage free if they had stuck to their knitting. The best way to expand a business is pay the mortgage off first, this can be used to borrow cheaper money for further expansion.
In the bad times the business is in a good position to compete being rent free. RBD are now in a very bad position, owning nothing, with the bad times now upon us. All you have to do is think back to the last time you heard a kid ask to go to a RBD restaurant. I cant think of one can you?. Macdunk

IF you keep this up the BOSS will give you the SACK..

[ronthepom]

IF you keep this up the BOSS will give you the SACK..

you come up with some funny ones bricks

[Snoopy]

SNOOPY, I told you a great number of years ago that RBD is a dog. You have argued the point buying more, and more, of something worth less and less. We are now heading into a recession, with your investing style setting you up to losing the lot.

Actually Macdunk, the food business is a very good business to be in during a recession.

The best way to expand a business is pay the mortgage off first, this can be used to borrow cheaper money for further expansion.

RBD sold its kennel for an overseas trip, then leased the kennel back which was a huge mistake as i told you at the time.

Macdunk, RBD sold their properties to finance their foray into Australia. They did exactly what you said they should do - used their property holdings to finance their expansion into new markets. The fact that their expansion strategy into Australia ultimately failed does not mean they were wrong to try it.

They followed that by spending huge amounts doing the kennel up. The bad times are upon us they pay leases when they might have been mortgage free if they had stuck to their knitting.

As much as it urks you Macdunk, the rebuilding of the KFC restaurants seems to be working for RBD. If you believe what others spout that are 'onethemoney', they may not have had a choice about their refurbishment program anyway.

In the bad times the business is in a good position to compete being rent free. RBD are now in a very bad position, owning nothing, with the bad times now upon us.

...as are *all* listed retailers. Can you name even one that own all their own stores?

All you have to do is think back to the last time you heard a kid ask to go to a RBD restaurant. I cant think of one can you?.

No I can't, but I think RBD targets more the late teen early twenties market. Plus the fat middle aged who are their captive customer base. I actually went to my local KFC on Saturday. It was quite late (after eight) yet there was a steady steam of custmers coming in the door. Business looked to be steady and the staff seemed fully occupied dealing with customers. It was a similar story at the local mall food court at lunch time this week. Very few lined up at the Macdonalds till. At KFC, the customers were 'stacked back'. That is the reverse of the situation a year ago.

SNOOPY

[minimoke]

No I can't, but I think RBD targets more the late teen early twenties market. Plus the fat middle aged who are their captive customer base.

SNOOPY

Don’t forget BRICKs and his zimmer frame mates in kapiti – or is he already in one of these other demographics

[BRICKS]

Don’t forget BRICKs and his zimmer frame mates in kapiti – or is he already in one of these other demographics

YOU do know Mini they don't make moke`s any more,, just like your statements and people live in expensive housing at Kapiti myself just a beach house for the odd NZ holiday and the odd trip to KFC. Make`s feel that i should BUY more stock of this BARGAIN..

[Dr_Who]

Looks like the hard times have hit Starbucks. All the latte addicts are doing home bake lattes instead of buying them from the local tinny house Starbucks.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10499444