RBD - Restaurant Brands

[Snoopy]

Strange to see RBD sp up.
The result is not very good, why is the sp up?

Here is the note my broker sent me on April 10th

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(RBD.NZ) Restaurant Brands - BUY (price $0.83)

Sector: Food and Beverages

Despite a good result yesterday, RBD has not moved, we expect to see
some appreciation of the share price in the short-term as the market
recognizes RBD's good performance.

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Whats the rumour out there?

No rumour Doc. You have just been asleep for six weeks. Oh and the share is about to go ex a 3.5c dividend soon. But I guess if you are a member of the dividend deniers cult like some around here...

SNOOPY

discl: hold RBD

[duncan macgregor]

A 3.5 cent dividend would hardly explain a 10 cent jump in the share price. However , I notice the chart is giving a buy signal, so perhaps the TA people are piling in. Bless their cotton socks; what would we do without them?
hiawatha

You are obviously not a trader my Indian friend. Traders dont trade in companies with a low volume. Traders like to get in and out barely leaving a ripple in the share price. I blame the averaging down brigade, lets face it they are the only ones getting buy signals in a down trending share. RBD have been heading down for years, it must go up against the trend on the rare occasion, when the odd nutter invests a few thousand. Macdunk

[Snoopy]

A 3.5 cent dividend would hardly explain a 10 cent jump in the share price.

No you are right Hiawatha, it doesn't. However a 3.5c dividend, plus the realisation that the deteriorating operational performance has been arrested (leading to a PE rerating) might.

SNOOPY

[Phaedrus]

I notice the chart is giving a buy signal, so perhaps the TA people are piling in. Bless their cotton socks; what would we do without them?

What buy signal is that Hiawatha? Are you possibly referring to the trendline break of some weeks ago? Those that bought then would now be well in profit, but let's take a closer look at that signal. While there was a clear break of a trendline that had held for 3 years, the signal lacked confirmation. Look carefully at the On Balance Volume plotted here. See how while the 2 year long OBV downward trendline was broken back in February, this trendline break was caused by the OBV merely tracking sideways - there was no OBV uptrend such as would indicate a significant change in market sentiment.

There seems to be a clear buy signal so the TA bods must be getting excited.

Nah. It takes volume to excite a techie, Hiawatha. No volume, no excitement. Look at the histogram along the bottom of the chart. See how volume is in fact falling (marked by the heavy magenta line) as this little uptrend procedes? Remember that it takes volume to confirm a trend. This is evidence of a weak uptrend. You say "Perhaps the TA people are piling in". Nah - in fact no-one is piling in. Look at the falling volume.

I wouldn't scoff at technical buy signals if I were you, Hiawatha. Click here to see where skilled, competent fundamental analysts were buying into RBD on the basis of "value" and "good" dividends. (Bless their cotton socks!)

No contest!

[Steve]

Went in to the South Dunedin KFC, an upgraded store, to cash in my annual shareholder freebie and was greeted by their newly acquired "D" rating issued by the DCC on 29 May 2008.

The only positive that I can tske from this is that it must be a good 'D', otherwise they would have been closed down to clean up their act...

[BRICKS]

WELL RBD has 476 less KIWI owners in 2008 since2007 had 6669 now 6193 but most of the buyers are existing large holders with Director D Diab now 4,000,000 up from 3,444,300. ,,
there are also 10 Asian names in top twenty so must know where to make money in FOOD..

There is 166 Australian Holders down 3...

[golden city]

what caused the sp spiking to over 90cents

[Snoopy]

What buy signal is that? Are you possibly referring to the trendline break of some weeks ago? Those that bought then would now be well in profit, but let's take a closer look at that signal. While there was a clear break of a trendline that had held for 3 years, the signal lacked confirmation - there was no OBV uptrend such as would indicate a significant change in market sentiment.

Nah. It takes volume to excite a techie. No volume, no excitement. Look at the histogram along the bottom of the chart. Remember that it takes volume to confirm a trend. This is evidence of a weak uptrend.

I do find it amazing the extent some go to to convince themselves that investing in RBD is a bad idea. We know about those that disregard dividends and so get the return calculations wrong. But there are plenty of other intelligent non investors on this very thread.

We have others who are 'afraid' to invest because they don't see hundreds of others piling in, (even though a couple of big spending Aussies have been busy climbing up the top ten shareholder list). We have still others who didn't 'believe' that the latest result was any good, despite the positive earnings lift and boosted dividend.

Now we have one of the country's most respected and rigorous chartists saying he wouldn't join the uptrend because it is only a 'weak' uptrend, so it isn't 'confirmed' (?) What happened to the 'higher highs' and 'higher lows' definition of an uptrend? I guess if you don't want to follow your own system, the answer is create a new measuring stick so that you don't have to (?)

I do have shares that I would struggle to exit over a week, but RBD isn't one of them. Nearly 22,000 share were traded this morning, and this is in a 'weak' uptrending market (uptrending for RBD shareholders that is, general NZX index investors aren't so lucky)! So while 'the many' dream up ingeneously creative solutions as to why they should not invest in RBD, those that *are* invested are now doing very nicely thanks. Trades were going through at 92c this lunchtime. That is up 15% from the 80c long term support level frequently visited earlier in the year. Good for those like me willing to take advantage of these price dips, and ignore what has gone on in the rear vision mirror.

SNOOPY

discl: hold RBD

[Dr_Who]

Yeah in the NBR above article about Hells distribution company going into liquidation....

Congrats to Snoopy and BRICKS for their RBD investments. I have been keeping a close eye on RBD. At present I still struggle to see the fundamentals coming through that will convince me to invest. The short term sp movement on Hell's Pizza potential liquidation will make investors take notice.

If RBD is smart they will use this opportunity to secure the top and med end pizza market. I will see how they will react and what strategies they adopt on the opportunity of HELL falling over. Till then I am still not convinced RBD has any strategy at all for Pizza Hut.

On a T/O value RBD, the current sp looks very cheap. But then the sale process have been around the block and no one wants it at the crazy price the directors are asking.

Still gonna wait and see how things pan out.

Anyone have a link to the NBR Hells Pizza article?

[Phaedrus]

Now we have one of the country's most respected and rigorous chartists saying he wouldn't join the uptrend....

Snoopy it is very naughty of you to make false statements like that and attribute them to me. At NO stage did I EVER say that I "wouldn't join the uptrend".

.....it is only a 'weak' uptrend, so it isn't 'confirmed'?

No, it is a 'weak' uptrend BECAUSE it isn't confirmed. Volume confirms price, and volume has been falling.

What happened to the 'higher highs' and 'higher lows' definition of an uptrend?

That's unchanged, Snoopy. No-one is disputing the existence of a new uptrend. We are speculating here on its strength. Two separate issues.

I guess if you don't want to follow your own system, the answer is create a new measuring stick so that you don't have to!

I'm astonished to see you claim that I have "created a new measuring stick" just for RBD, Snoopy. Hardly! For many years I have been actively advocating use of the OBV indicator. You know that.

Good for those like me willing to take advantage of these price dips, and ignore what has gone on in the rear vision mirror.

Ah, but Snoopy, you have been ignoring the rear vision mirror and "buying the dips" for literally years! Had you looked in the rear vision mirror back then you would have seen that you were (on all but one occasion) buying into a confirmed downtrend. The dips just kept on getting lower and lower - see this chart, for example.

The concern occasioned by the flat OBV as expressed in this chart proved to be very well founded. In the days following that post, the RBD shareprice fell away, it again broke below the trendline and made a low at 78 cents before reversing, breaking the trendline yet again and moving into the current uptrend. (With, you will notice, a rising OBV).