USD.JPY

[peat]

The notion of going long US$ (and looking for opportunities to do so) has been based on :
1 : some stuff you said ages ago (in Eur/USD thread specifically)
2 : Max McKeggs recent publications
3 : my seeing that the Yen is being sold strongly against all currencies (but that I would prefer to trade the less volatile of the Yen crosses ie USD and not GBP (the Ninja Beast can really smart)

My compression picture as above was the over-riding factor tho for this particular trade (thanks to Roddy for pointing out the Eur leading the way out i.e down as well).
This made me think that there was a distinct possibility of hundreds of pips. Given my many small losses accumulating over time and slowly but surely draining my account I want to try to focus on higher reward possiblity trades (and less of them)

I calculate my stop points from a support and resistance perspective in that retracements often go back to the top of the previous upward movement.

Yes it could all be more scientific... [:I]

[roddy]

Hi Peat
just came across the wire

USD/JPY is trading at the day"s high just below 118.00 after the BOJ Minutes
didn"t sound a hawkish tone as some expected after board member Mizuno"s
comments were published by Bloomberg earlier today. Mizuno said that the BOJ
would still look to gradually raise rates despite mixed data of late, but the
BOJ Minutes were non-committal and suggested there was no timetable in place for
future rate hikes this year. The USD/JPY trades 117.95/118.00. --

cheers cadet roddy

[peat]

cheers for that roddy
it retraced just enough today to take out my second position, but the first is still hangin in, all good.....

[roddy]

Hi Peat/Arco,

Peat it appears from your posts on jpy that you are making a transition from a short term trader to a more medium term time frame.
Farleigh also in his book after back testing,
indices,commodities,currencies,nasd,anything which had high liquidity and was tradeable, concluded that prices arent always random and yes the trend does exist and that if a trader
got into a trend there was a 10% chance of it continuing,meaning that by being in a trend and sticking with it, gives a trader a comparative advantage.

Arco

From your posts Arco, you let your profits run and make large gains per trade, if i may ask how do you monitor the trade and know when to exit?

Cheers cadet roddy

[arco]

Hi Roddy

Exits. Good question, but there is no one answer.

Depending on the initial trigger, exits will/can be pre-determined by Fibs and Gann in the case of a Butterfly/Gartley.

But for a H & S or Cup and Handle the target calculations will be different, but also being aware of Fib and Gann.

Once a trade is underway a trailing stop can be applied, but I also like to take some profit off the table at set targets leaving the balance to stop itself out. That way it may be possible get a slightly longer run on the balance.

If working on EOD then monitoring can be daily, but stops will trigger automatically if there is a major move against the position. I do also check my positions occasionally if I am in the office.

Hope that goes some way to answering your question, but really I could probably write a whole book about the subject.

regards - arco

[roddy]

Hi Peat/Arco
thank you for your reply Arco,will implement taking some off the table and leaving profits to run.
Peat are you still in JPY if so what stategy will you use or did you use for final exit,given that Arco
quote
{could probably write a whole book about the subject.}its certainly a biggy,so any comments

cheers cadet roddy

[Xerof]

Arco said:

quote:I could probably write a whole book about the subject

I thought you were!

And whats more, lol, when do we get a copy for peer review....

regards

Xerof

p.s. real squeeze going on the Kiwi now - testing the Major and his troops again

[arco]

Hi Xerof

Tis true, I did make a start, and my efforts are still in the computer taking up megabytes of space.

I eventually decided Butterfly farming was far more interesting (and much more profitable [8D]) and I reluctantly put the writing on permanent hold.

arco

[Xerof]

Yes OK, fair enough.

I just posted a nice specimen in the butterfly house for your viewing pleasure

regards

Xerof

[peat]

i was closed out at the stated stops roddy. so a good trade, tho as always I was hoping for more