LYC: rare earth minerals the next big thing

[Entrep]

The move today was so much bigger than tax-loss selling. It was either the mother of all shake outs or something is seriously wrong with Lynas/Malaysia/TOL.

[tobo]

The TOL was awarded but not handed over in Feb, now govt statements saying no reason to withhold.
Either
the TOL will be forthcoming, and LCY goes into usual start-up teething, followed by production and then revenues,
or
if TOL cancelled, sp will drop to the floor, and Malaysia's internation business image will also get a big knock

The only other BIG risk I can think of is : such a huge global economic slowdown that global sales of fluro lights and iphones halve and significantly reduce RE prices and sales volumes.

And do you value the company on
a) expected next 12 month production (ie. excluding plant doubling currently being constructed, and reducing further for startup delays), or on
b) future (doubled) production levels along with other resources needing additional plant.

When the price was $2.65, it was based on (b), but just when production gets close, a different set of investors (institutional) arrive who only use (a)
And then there's the recent shorting/manipulation that's been going on.

So, to sum up, it is unclear if this is just another shakeup, or if this price is the cool calm review of a business about to face startup risks

[CAM]

Won't need rare earths soon..... (maybe)

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20120613D1206A22.htm

[stevo1]

Won't need rare earths soon..... (maybe)

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20120613D1206A22.htm

UMMMM CAM they are talking about rare METALS cobolt and nickel not rare earths.The rarity of those metals????? Meanwhile back on the rollercoaster that is LYC seems to be in a flat patch ATM

[stevo1]

RARE-EARTHS miner Lynas has had a win in one of its defamation cases against groups voicing strong opposition to its Malaysian processing operation.
A free and independent Malaysian media outlet, Free Malaysia Today, yesterday issued an apology for articles it had published, which claimed the Lynas plant could be unsafe.

"We apologise for these publications as such claims do not have a scientific basis. The regulatory review of the Lynas plant has been thorough and diligent," the media company said.

The apology comes after Lynas announced in May that it had begun defamation proceedings in Malaysia against the Save Malaysia Stop Lynas group and some Malaysian media outlets.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226428514760

[STRAT]

Well done you guys. It would have been extremely difficult to hold this one through the slide this year. Congrads to all who jumped in recently.

[stevo1]

TOL has been granted. I'm going to sit back for the day and watch the shorters sweat it out :-)

About time too well and truly overdue .I think can still expect a rollercoaster performance until in production and profit.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2012090...kz6kpxj6d9.pdf

[Entrep]

There must be so many mums and dads and others who can't really afford it tied up in LYC. Market is a very dangerous place these days

[stevo1]

LYC saga continues BUT things MAY be about to turn the Royal family of Phahang has come out in support for LYC http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general...ility-1.161811
This should silence the critics (SMSL) and allow the project to move ahead.
Still has some headwinds with REE prices and any production glitches.
I am increasing shareholding from free carrying when the opportunity arises

[stevo1]

SMSL Court action tossed out TOL can commence
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2012110...8frk842t20.pdf

Market for LYC opened at 15.55 and 20.5 mill shares traded in 5 mins up 11%.
will be interesting close for the 10min aftermarket