RAK Rakon

[Greekwatchdog]

This is For Bars update this morning...

We adjust our Rakon (RAK) forecasts to account for prolonged market weakness in its key Telecommunications segment (~55% of FY24E revenue) following negative updates from key global telco players. Nokia (NOK) and Ericsson (ERIC) reported 1Q24 numbers in the last week, with both experiencing notable revenue declines. NOK reported a significant fall in sales, led by a deep contraction in its network infrastructure and mobile networks divisions. Similarly, ERIC experienced a downturn in sales, calling out a slowdown in 5G network deployment in its critical North American market as a key driver. While our FY24 estimates already align with the lower end of RAK's guidance, we reduce our FY25/FY26 estimates as we push out a recovery in Telecommunications. Our blended spot valuation falls -2cps to NZ$0.98, and we await news regarding the potential NZ$1.70 takeover offer.

What's changed?
Earnings: Our underlying EBITDA estimates fall -5% in FY25 and FY26, while NPAT falls -9% and -6% respectively.
Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation falls -2% to NZ$0.98, with weakness in peer comparables also driving the reduction.
Nokia — 1Q24
NOK 1Q24 showcased a challenging market environment, with net sales falling -20%. Its network infrastructure segment saw revenues drop -26%, while mobile network revenue was down -39%. NOK noted that it had seen improved order intake, providing confidence in a stronger 2H24 that should allow it to achieve its full-year operating profit guidance.

Ericsson — 1Q24 sales remaining weak but the company calls out that inventory levels have stabilised
ERIC reported a -15% year-over-year decline in 1Q24 net sales, dropping from SEK$5.7bn to SEK$4.8bn. The Networks segment saw a sales decrease of -21%. Reflecting lower 5G customer infrastructure investment, sales declined by -17% year-over-year in ERIC's primary global North American market. The company noted that customer inventory levels have now stabilised, and it expected a recovery in the second half of 2024 following recent contract wins. Despite market challenges and cautious customer investment, ERIC anticipates sales stabilisation in the latter half of 2024, supported by a strong pipeline and recent contract wins in North America.

Earnings preview — RAK FY24 result due 29 May 2024, we revise our FY25 and FY26 estimates
RAK is due to report its FY24 result on 29 May 2024. Management has guided to underlying EBITDA in the range of NZ$13m to NZ$19m. Our FY24 estimates have NZ$141.8m in sales (down -21%), underlying EBITDA at the lower end of guidance at NZ$13.9m (down -67%) and reported NPAT of NZ$4.4m (down -81%). We anticipate RAK will update investors about the takeover offer, first announced on 11 December 2023. We cut our FY25 and FY26 revenue estimates by -2% and -3%, respectively, and our underlying EBITDA forecasts by -5% in both years, effectively pushing out the cyclical recovery by ~three months.

[moimoi]

April 24 (Reuters) - Anglo American PLC AAL.L :

ANGLO AMERICAN :CONFIRMS THAT IT IS HAS RECEIVED AN UNSOLICITED, NON-BINDING AND HIGHLY CONDITIONAL COMBINATION PROPOSAL FROM BHP GROUP LIMITED
ANGLO AMERICAN : THE BOARD IS CURRENTLY REVIEWING THIS PROPOSAL WITH ITS ADVISERS.
ANGLO AMERICAN - BHP PROPOSAL COMPRISES AN ALL-SHARE OFFER FOR ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO AMERICAN - BHP PROPOSAL WOULD BE PRECEDED BY SEPARATE DEMERGERS BY CO'S ENTIRE SHAREHOLDINGS IN ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM , KUMBA IRON ORE LIMITED


Lets see if the Board of Anglo American takes in excess of 4 months to determine if the proposed transaction is "in the best interests of shareholders as a whole".

AND

Lets see if the Board of Anglo American takes in excess of 4 months to provide an update to their shareholders.

Continuous disclosure obligations and confidentiality agreements will be broadly similar between the 2 proposed transactions not withstanding the differing $$ values...

GLTA.

[nztx]

April 24 (Reuters) - Anglo American PLC AAL.L :

ANGLO AMERICAN :CONFIRMS THAT IT IS HAS RECEIVED AN UNSOLICITED, NON-BINDING AND HIGHLY CONDITIONAL COMBINATION PROPOSAL FROM BHP GROUP LIMITED
ANGLO AMERICAN : THE BOARD IS CURRENTLY REVIEWING THIS PROPOSAL WITH ITS ADVISERS.
ANGLO AMERICAN - BHP PROPOSAL COMPRISES AN ALL-SHARE OFFER FOR ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO AMERICAN - BHP PROPOSAL WOULD BE PRECEDED BY SEPARATE DEMERGERS BY CO'S ENTIRE SHAREHOLDINGS IN ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM , KUMBA IRON ORE LIMITED


Lets see if the Board of Anglo American takes in excess of 4 months to determine if the proposed transaction is "in the best interests of shareholders as a whole".

AND

Lets see if the Board of Anglo American takes in excess of 4 months to provide an update to their shareholders.

Continuous disclosure obligations and confidentiality agreements will be broadly similar between the 2 proposed transactions not withstanding the differing $$ values...

GLTA.

Hahaha .. VG that about says it all

[ronaldson]

Clearly the market does not believe in this share any more.

While we wait still upon the Committee to update us it seems from the buyside depth that literally no one considers the outcome will be positive.

[ronaldson]

Further sharp fall today on-market indicates some leakage in knowledge re the proposal under consideration in my view. Maybe info is not as tightly held as the Committee would wish?

This could lead to an enquiry into trading?

[Wai Wai]

Looks like a couple of big margin calls

[winner69]

Mike Daniel still grumpy

From BusinessDesk

Daniel complained to the “ultimate market regulator”, the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). The FMA confirmed it had received a complaint.

Daniel had also repeatedly written to Rakon and its chair, Lorraine Witten, asking for it to at least tell Rakon investors whether the talks continued.

Rakon said in an emailed statement that its board was mindful of and paid close attention to its continuous disclosure obligations to release material information to the market in accordance with the listing rules.

“Rakon is committed to keeping shareholders informed in accordance with those obligations but is otherwise subject to confidentiality restrictions.”

[nztx]

Mike Daniel still grumpy

From BusinessDesk

Daniel complained to the “ultimate market regulator”, the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). The FMA confirmed it had received a complaint.

Daniel had also repeatedly written to Rakon and its chair, Lorraine Witten, asking for it to at least tell Rakon investors whether the talks continued.

Rakon said in an emailed statement that its board was mindful of and paid close attention to its continuous disclosure obligations to release material information to the market in accordance with the listing rules.

“Rakon is committed to keeping shareholders informed in accordance with those obligations but is otherwise subject to confidentiality restrictions.”

Good on him - what are Directors' duties again ?

Acting in best interests of the Company & Shareholders (that is all as a collective Group - not some, or a few larger stakeholders)

Time this was investigated along with the Board, Directors etc

Somehow many might wonder if the FMA have the balls & nous to achieve too much other than try to
recover their own court costs and produce Claytons wins.. and along with them stuff all those who have potentially lost out on the other side of the coin

If Directors & senior managers / assistants have breached their duties then maybe time for a class action against those who may or may not have strayed ?

There are probably a large bundle other worthy candidates for similar treatment & class action treatment too

It will only take one well won case then threat of red hot poker treatment for others to sort out the others on what they are potentially likely to be lined up for

“Rakon is committed to keeping shareholders informed in accordance with those obligations but is otherwise subject to confidentiality restrictions.”

what have RAK stakeholders seen out of this ?


Alleged Offer price was what ? $1.70 was it or not ?

What was the SP at close today ? - looks like $ 0.94

Looks to most that Stakeholders have to date potentially lost 76c a share over the duration so far



How much hidden or other value have RAK's board in charge of running things generated for the Company & Stakeholders in the time while this has been going on ?