RAK Rakon

[tobo]

Expecting the recent rally to have been a bit rash, I'd put a tight stop on this as it climbed for past few days - got stopped out today because I reset it higher after the morning runup.
Happy to have some cash. Still think we are in Bear market for 6 months or so. I find it hard to resist 'bargains' but am learning the hard way.

[Entrep]

This is surging again. Watch tomorrow morning

[Steve]

This is surging again. Watch tomorrow morning

Entrep...junior ramper?!

[trackers]

This is surging again. Watch tomorrow morning

No offence, but you've had 4 posts and they've all been utter rubbish.

Edit: Lol beaten!

[mondograss]

The volume of this recent rally has been almost absurdly light. Most of the upwards movement has involved only a few thousand shares changing hands, probably from the left hand to the right hand of one solitary trader. As much as I like this company, I'm under no illusions that this share will stay depressed as long as the US$ does.

[craic]

Disc - I have 14,000 of these shares. The company announced yesterday that its annual report would be released in May. There is a common pattern of insider trading around most companies wherein shares are either dropped or picked up according to the expectation of a bad or a good report. Clearly there are many who know the result long before the public announcement. The nod and the wink in this case seems to be saying that things are going well.

[scamper]

Hello Mondo, Craic and all
I too have noted the very light volume of the recent little uptrend, and am puzzled why the OBV took a positive turn?
On the good side, the price is ahead of the exponential and weighted moving averages.
I do hope it's all due to a realistic nudge and wink scenario... cheers.

[Phaedrus]

The OBV is just doing what it should oughta do, Scamper. Rising on up days and falling on down days. Confirming or presaging changes in the shareprice trend.

On Balance Volume is simply a running total of volume - so it goes up every time there is an Up day. There were 9 consecutive updays recently and even though volumes were only average, cumulatively they had an obvious and inevitable effect on the OBV.

[Bob Marley]

Hey mon, I see RAK has attracted a bit of interest prior to next week's FY08 result mon. I recall the last couple of result announcements attracted similar attention mon. The result has already been flagged by the company (EBITDA of about $23-$24m, which equates to about $11.3m, excl the $1m gain on the Indian venture).

I assume the drop in the NZD/USD is having a big influence mon plus people may be expecting some news about their proposed Chinese manufacturing plans mon; maybe some new guidance mon for FY09; or maybe some update on the Indian venture mon.

$11.3m NPAT equates to a historical PE of 38x, in a fairly ordinary year where they had some teething problems with their new acquisition.

I believe they should be able to achieve NPAT of close to $20m in FY09 (EBITDA of around $36m) assuming a NZD/USD x-rate of $0.76; a forward PE of nearly 22x - not too unreasonable if you're a believer in their growth prospects and a believer that the NZD will drop further over the next 1-2 years.

Disc: Hold RAK

[mondograss]

Thanks for the analysis dude, it remains to be seen if the result will meet expectations in a fairly cagey and suspicious market. If not I can see RAK taking another caning.

What I'd really like to hear is how they're going with that micro GPS receiver of theirs. If they've finally got someone taking that up then it could be good. Anyone heard if the iPhone v2 is going to have GPS? :-)