sharetrader
Page 83 of 232 FirstFirst ... 337379808182838485868793133183 ... LastLast
Results 821 to 830 of 2317

Thread: RAK Rakon

  1. #821
    Money Manager
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Dunedin
    Posts
    21

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Its a shame your "huge amount of homework on this one" didn't produce as you expected. Hope you didn't use the same methodology predicting the "coming nz recession" :0
    Everyone makes mistakes, how often you make them is what determines whether you make money or not. I got cocky and ended up with my face in the dirt. Those too things are highly correlated.

  2. #822
    Senior Member moimoi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2000
    Posts
    547

    Default

    Net tangible asset backing per ordinary security $ 0.82

    Is that number anywhere near reality?

  3. #823
    Dilettante
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Down & out
    Posts
    5,407

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mknz View Post
    Everyone makes mistakes, how often you make them is what determines whether you make money or not. I got cocky and ended up with my face in the dirt. Those too things are highly correlated.
    Absolutely correct my friend. I have ended up with my face in the dirt many times in this game, but happily continue with head above water, but only just

    Humble apologies if any offence was taken from my post, it was not the intention

  4. #824
    Legend Balance's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Posts
    21,489

    Default

    Falling knives and in this case, very sharp ones.

    How many fingers have we all lost collectively buying on the way down and trying to pick a bottom?

  5. #825
    Money Manager
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Dunedin
    Posts
    21

    Default

    I was the biggest bull here last month but macro conditions changed my whole view. The bernanke panic, ie QEternity is a sign of monetary desperation in the USA and from what we know of previous QE's we can see they don't work. The only positive news out of the USA is that employment is getting better due to hundreds of thousands of full time jobs being divided into multiple part time jobs due to changes in health care laws for employers. The entire EU including Germany is in recession. France just instituted 75% taxes on businesses(why wasn't this mentioned in the half year report? It's pretty significant!) China is 60%+ dependent on exports and the largest exporter in the world and global shipping prices have dropped through the floor, I'd say that's a pretty sure sign China is going to crash too.

    USA, EU, China, these are the countries that RAKON is massively exposed to. When I bought into RAK I did so thinking that the global economy had bottomed, but that is obviously not the case. The last few months were just an inflection point on the path of collapse.

    The arguments from some of the people on this forum are quite hard hitting. What is the value of rakon's assets? Only what the market will pay for the plant and materials in an oversupplied bear market. What would you pay for a business that is likely to lose 5% of your money each year for the next three years? What is that asset worth? Would you pay $80,000,000 for a company that is on track to lose 8 million dollars this year? Certainly not without replacing management and a plausible story for success in a caustic macro environment.

    I propose that Rakon is worth 10 times what you expect the mean earnings to be over the next 3 years. My generous guess from the current macro trends is that Rakon will average 5 million after tax earnings. That values Rakon at NZD$50,000,000.

    If you consider that there are 191,000,000 shares outstanding the intrinsic value of each share is .26
    Last edited by mknz; 16-11-2012 at 03:57 PM.

  6. #826
    Legend Balance's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Posts
    21,489

    Default

    Give yourself a break, mknz.

    We all get it wrong from time to time, and sometimes spectacularly.

    Important though to be objective and balanced at how we look at the world - there are always winners and losers.

    Nokia was king of mobile once - look at it now. Apple was almost broke once but is now #1.

    Change in management and directors however is the starting point for a turnaround.

    Until then, best to stand aside.

    Mr Mogridge and at least one of the Robinsons have to go.

    Just look at the mess at PGC - courtesy of the Chairmanship of Mogridge.

  7. #827
    Money Manager
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Dunedin
    Posts
    21

    Default

    Rakon was started in the middle of the GFC and management didn't have a clue what was happening. They started "hedging" by diversifying globally, however in a GLOBAL financial crisis "globalization" is actually just diversification into a greater number of losing macro positions.

    Oh yes, and like snapiti and balance have said, management has a now proven history of misleading shareholders.
    Last edited by mknz; 17-11-2012 at 08:38 AM.

  8. #828
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    , New Zealand.
    Posts
    526

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mknz View Post
    Rakon was started in the middle of the GFC and management didn't have a clue what was happening. They started "hedging" by diversifying globally, however in a GLOBAL financial crisis "globalization" is actually just diversification into a greater number of losing macro positions.

    Oh yes, and like snapiti and balance have said, management has a now proven history of misleading shareholders.
    Having attended a number of meetings with RAK management and gone to most of the AGM's it is obvious that RAK management really think that the world has just not played fair with them and it is not their fault I can assure you. These guys will never front up and while they own so much of the company the only real answer would be a takeover because they still think of the company as really just theirs.

    And dont for a second think the 'reduction' in salary is anything but a deferment of debt to the family that run this puppy, the moment there is any sign of a pick up they will load up on heaps of options and front load the salary packages (with obligatory 'independent' analysis paid for by the company that shows they have been underpaid for ages and deserve every penny).

  9. #829
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    , New Zealand.
    Posts
    526

    Default

    Sparky, a great reply, with some well thought out suggestions that probably all of us should consider when investing. Printed and attached to the wall. Thanks

  10. #830
    Legend Balance's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Posts
    21,489

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Anna Naum View Post
    Having attended a number of meetings with RAK management and gone to most of the AGM's it is obvious that RAK management really think that the world has just not played fair with them and it is not their fault I can assure you. These guys will never front up and while they own so much of the company the only real answer would be a takeover because they still think of the company as really just theirs.

    And dont for a second think the 'reduction' in salary is anything but a deferment of debt to the family that run this puppy, the moment there is any sign of a pick up they will load up on heaps of options and front load the salary packages (with obligatory 'independent' analysis paid for by the company that shows they have been underpaid for ages and deserve every penny).
    Agree with you 100%.

    Look at how Mr Bryan Mogridge chairs PGC, and you better get the hell out of Rakon.

    Shifts PGC's AGM to Auckland (after 150 years of holding AGMs in Christchurch) to avoid irate long term shareholders.

    Then, the MD did not show up because he is too busy trying to sell their last NZ asset (after fire-selling the others).

    And Mr Mogridge seems to think that is all fine!

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •