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Thread: RAK Rakon

  1. #851
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    "Rakon sets sail to seek its fortune"

    goo.gl/uwJvg
    So which one is with? Robinson and Mogridge?

  2. #852
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    Can anyone give us a run down of their year on year forecasts vs actual for say the last 3 years? I suspect it would be rather disappointing reading for shareholders! My pick for 2013:

    Estimated EBITDA = 8-14m
    Actual EBITDA = -10m

  3. #853
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    Article on stuff: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...profit-warning

    The most pertinent sentence is the last one: "Rakon has a history of missing forecasts."

  4. #854
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    Glad I cut my losses and bailed at 42c. Lesson learned. Following all the profit downgrades, my biggest fear was that the valuations of assets will turn out to be overstated as well.

    I am going to apply my mind to something else out there of value... enough time (and cash) wasted with this dog.

    (Upon reading this back I am clearly still bitter).

  5. #855
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    $8m to $12m ebitda really means less than $8m

    they say 'Delayed sales program and decline in margins' but don't really say how much of then 70% of $10m in permanent savings is included but we must assume some favourable impacts this year (before all the one off costs eh)

    Gap between ebitda and npat has been about 5% points ..... oh my god that means $8m to $12m ebitda is probably loss making territory (before banormals and all that)

    Surely they must make a bob or two out of every chip they sell .... surely things are not that bad

  6. #856
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    $8m to $12m ebitda really means less than $8m

    they say 'Delayed sales program and decline in margins' but don't really say how much of then 70% of $10m in permanent savings is included but we must assume some favourable impacts this year (before all the one off costs eh)

    Gap between ebitda and npat has been about 5% points ..... oh my god that means $8m to $12m ebitda is probably loss making territory (before banormals and all that)

    Surely they must make a bob or two out of every chip they sell .... surely things are not that bad
    Any company which keeps missing forecasts must be a company in deep crisis. It means that the company cannot keep on top of its game.

    What is becoming evident is that Rakon is like an old man in a young man's game - fast moving technology requiring a whole range of expertise and skills, none of which seems to reside much in the board and management.

    NZ needs companies like the Rakons of this world so I hope the Board and management realises how bad the situation is, and go for a wholesale change in management and directors.

    Let's see what happens.
    Last edited by Balance; 20-12-2012 at 07:32 PM.

  7. #857
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    Quote Originally Posted by Penfold View Post
    Glad I cut my losses and bailed at 42c. Lesson learned. Following all the profit downgrades, my biggest fear was that the valuations of assets will turn out to be overstated as well.

    I am going to apply my mind to something else out there of value... enough time (and cash) wasted with this dog.

    (Upon reading this back I am clearly still bitter).
    Don't be bitter. Learn from the experience.

    Golden rule to follow is - don't buy a company when it is going through a downgrade cycle. It could prove terminal.

    Another rule to follow is to avoid tainted directors and management.

  8. #858
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    "They're just normal supply chain issues."
    WOW!!! That is a shocker! Clearly the wrong person is in charge of supply chain management! They should be fired and they should get somebody that can ensure delivery! Anything else is completely unacceptable!

    If that is normal for Rakon there is absolutely no hope!

    RAK is valued at over 70 million. On that basis the share price has a long way to fall! I suggest that unless it gets it's act together (which seems unlikely as it appears to be completely out of it's depth) the share price will be 15 cents or less by next Xmas.

  9. #859
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10855386

    "It's not a loss of business - it's just a delay," he said. "It's probably something to do with the austerity measures [in Europe]."

    You mean you don't know for certain why the revenue dropped? Europe could be in austerity for 5 years, which means they might not get their money for years....

    Robinson said he was surprised by how far Rakon's share price had fallen yesterday."It's dropped a lot more than I expected it to."

    Ferkrysaiks....let investors worry about the share price. You worry about the business, which given that you are management and a director, is troubling that you also have "normal supply chain issues".

    Normal for Rakon perhaps.
    Delay means competitors can move into the space in a fast moving technological sector.

    One senses that Bryan Mogridge is trying to apply some of his expertise in the wine industry in other fields, PGC = financial and Rakon = techonolgy, and falling flat on his face.

    Time to go back to juicing the grapes, Bryan and let a real Chairman take over.

    Until then, no point being in this company. It smells too much like PGC - the stench is almost unbearable.
    Last edited by Balance; 21-12-2012 at 10:43 AM.

  10. #860
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    Latest report seems to be full of the same old stuff.

    Lots of talk about growth, but they have just managed to equal revenue levels for 2008. In 5 years in being a high growth industry, they only able to make the same revenues, while dramatically increasing their costs.
    Lots of talk about being in a great position to take advantage of the growth, but no results - i.e. they aren't actually gaining any $$ from the growth they claim to be part of.
    Lots of blaming the $$ without talk of currency hedging.
    New products! Claims that it will make them more of a one-stop-shop. No evidence of any such thing.
    New products! Claims of higher margins built in, but as a price taker, who is really listening.

    Looking at the financials - a $4 mill loss for 6 months. Where's all the profits from the realignment and growth you are trumpeting??? Worse result than the prior 6 months, looking on track for a financial year loss of $ 8 mill. While the company claims to be doing things to reverse its continually bad results, I really don't think they are.

    All in all... I would still escape while I could at 37 cents! My pick is the SP will trend down to around 25c this year unless they can pull some rabbits out of the hat. Either that or most of the board is changed, which I would see as a big positive for the SP.

    The worst sentence: "Reiterating the full year guidance given to the market in August, the current prospects and orders being received continue to indicate that Rakon should achieve a result within the predicted range." And as you have missed guidance by a long long way, many many times, why should we believe you? No confidence.

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