EUR.USD

[Xerof]

quote:"the market has come to a reasonable level," said a dealer at a Japanese trust bank

Well, never trust dealers at Japanese Trust Banks I guess

Russian selling at 12340 earlier I'm told - weren't they the ones holding it above 12800????? No wonder they're bankrupt[8D][8D]

D: this is the one and only that I missed on way down - got stopped out on a tight stop last Friday -- at the highs -- of course[xx(][xx(]

Xerof

[arco]

Obviously not worth reading that drivel.
As I have often said.....I don't take too
much notice of fundamental info.

I always follow this simple thought.....

The chart is King....long live the chart

[arco]

Just in case anyone has missed the news.......

Dutch say 'No' to EU constitution

Many Dutch are unhappy with the government and the economy
Voters in the Netherlands have overwhelmingly rejected the proposed European Union constitution.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4601439.stm

[peat]

i didnt see the news but the charts already told me hahah

[peat]

reduced my positions at just above and below the 1.22 level
looks like the retracement is occurring - it had to sooner or later.

i'll sit back with just the one open position now - let the dust settle for 24 hours i think. eat some food and drink some wine tonite.

[peat]

this retracement took out my trailing stop at 1.2285 on the first time up but 1.2290 having been rejected 3 times this now begins to look like a level to re-enter short.

[lakedaemonian]

quote:Italian Welfare Minister Maroni suggested it would be “better” if Italy readopted the lira again, a very controversial comment in light of the recent problems the European Union has had. The common currency dove to the $1.2230 level in mere minutes on this comment but was back just below the $1.2300 figure by the time U.S. non-farm payrolls data for May were released. The Italian comment was stinging because France and Holland this week voted to turn down the EU constitution. The European Commission reacted by confirming “the euro is forever.”

Open mouth, insert foot [:0]

I would have thought portraying the Euro in a negative light by ANY European government Cabinet Member would be a major no no

[arco]

Blair gives up on his EU dreamBy Melissa Kite, Toby Harnden and Tony Paterson
(Filed: 05/06/2005)

Tony Blair has given up on Europe as an issue worth fighting for, senior allies of the Prime Minister have told The Sunday Telegraph.

A leading Blairite cabinet minister made the admission last night as the European Union descended into deeper turmoil, with doubts surfacing over the future of the single currency.

Mr Blair, who will seek to shift the focus of his administration on to poverty in the Third World this week during talks with President Bush, has told his closest allies: "Africa is worth fighting for. Europe, in its present form, is not."

The signal is an astonishing U-turn for a leader who said three years ago that the euro was "our destiny" and who announced a British referendum by proclaiming: "Let the battle be joined." But one of his closest allies said that Mr Blair no longer believed that putting Britain at the heart of Europe could be his legacy: "Europe is back to the drawing board. Africa will become more important."

Mr Blair flies to Washington tomorrow to try to secure support for proposals to tackle poverty ahead of next month's G8 summit in Gleneagles. But the Prime Minister is unlikely to be able to divert attention completely from the chaos over Europe's future.

President Chirac of France and Germany's Chancellor Schröder held a summit in Berlin last night after the No votes in France and Holland on the constitution.
Yet the crisis widened beyond the document alone, with a media offensive being mounted to bolster the euro after German officials and an Italian minister openly discussed its possible demise. In the first rumblings of a call for the franc to be reinstated, Nicolas Dupont-Aignant, a member of Mr Chirac's ruling UMP party, said: "France, Italy and Germany would be in a better state without the euro. However, I don't believe we should ditch it now.

"But either it is reformed, and the central European Bank kick-starts growth by lowering interest rates and pursuing a more American-style monetary policy, or the euro will explode in mid-air."

The governor of France's central bank, however, rushed to the euro's defence. Christian Noyer said that the currency was "in no way under threat" following its fall in value since the No votes of the past seven days. He dismissed as "absurd" the idea of a temporary withdrawal from the euro by individual states.

"The euro is a solid currency which brings us a lasting guarantee of stable prices and thus the maintenance of purchasing power for our wages and savings," he told Le Parisien newspaper.

The markets have been slowly adjusting to the possibility of the break-up of the euro, with the spread between government bonds in different countries widening.

Last night, John Redwood, the leading eurosceptic Tory MP, said: "You can't have a single currency without a single government. They are in a mess because they have only done half of it and they are now discovering in a painful way what that means."

The No campaign in Britain will launch a campaign tomorrow demanding a referendum on any aspects of the constitution that leaders might attempt to salvage. It will also unveil 46 new business backers, including Stuart Rose, chief executive of Marks & Spencer.

An ICM poll for the No group found that 81 per cent of voters say that it would be unacceptable to bring in any of the proposals without a referendum in Britain first.

Additional reporting by Henry Samuel

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...equestid=22123

[Walt]

Funny old price action last night in EUR.

Threatened 1.2340/50 (post-payrolls high) which if cleared would have been quite positive for a retest of 1.2500. Failed at that level, and I doubt anyone really knows why we are now 100 pips lower. Reuters just reports the standard fluffy techncial selling line (read, no idea!).

Seems like we trace out a range in EUR prior to Greenspan testimony tonight, 1.2200-1.2290 should hold it until then.

Data has been soft recently, and if Greenspan fails to sound upbeat about the economy, I still favour a bounce from here. A retracement of larger degree is still well overdue.

Therefore find it difficult to be short EUR down at these levels - long with a stop below 1.2200 is the play at present for the next 48 hours.

[Walt]

Well I got stopped last night on Greenspan's more upbeat testimony. Notably the market has come back from those losses, and never really threatened the Jun 1st 1.2157 low.

So my inclination whilst the Jun 1st low holds is to be long off these levels. Short term traders are well long dollars now (IMM stats) and although on a med-term basis any recovery is an opportunity to sell, for the short term I favour a recovery, or at worst a range 1.2150-1.2350. The nice thing about being long here, is that stops are very well defined.

Quiet Friday data-wise ahead, the market most likely to drift within the range.