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  1. #136
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    this retracement took out my trailing stop at 1.2285 on the first time up but 1.2290 having been rejected 3 times this now begins to look like a level to re-enter short.

  2. #137
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    quote:Italian Welfare Minister Maroni suggested it would be “better” if Italy readopted the lira again, a very controversial comment in light of the recent problems the European Union has had. The common currency dove to the $1.2230 level in mere minutes on this comment but was back just below the $1.2300 figure by the time U.S. non-farm payrolls data for May were released. The Italian comment was stinging because France and Holland this week voted to turn down the EU constitution. The European Commission reacted by confirming “the euro is forever.”
    Open mouth, insert foot [:0]

    I would have thought portraying the Euro in a negative light by ANY European government Cabinet Member would be a major no no

  3. #138
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    Blair gives up on his EU dreamBy Melissa Kite, Toby Harnden and Tony Paterson
    (Filed: 05/06/2005)

    Tony Blair has given up on Europe as an issue worth fighting for, senior allies of the Prime Minister have told The Sunday Telegraph.

    A leading Blairite cabinet minister made the admission last night as the European Union descended into deeper turmoil, with doubts surfacing over the future of the single currency.

    Mr Blair, who will seek to shift the focus of his administration on to poverty in the Third World this week during talks with President Bush, has told his closest allies: "Africa is worth fighting for. Europe, in its present form, is not."

    The signal is an astonishing U-turn for a leader who said three years ago that the euro was "our destiny" and who announced a British referendum by proclaiming: "Let the battle be joined." But one of his closest allies said that Mr Blair no longer believed that putting Britain at the heart of Europe could be his legacy: "Europe is back to the drawing board. Africa will become more important."

    Mr Blair flies to Washington tomorrow to try to secure support for proposals to tackle poverty ahead of next month's G8 summit in Gleneagles. But the Prime Minister is unlikely to be able to divert attention completely from the chaos over Europe's future.

    President Chirac of France and Germany's Chancellor Schröder held a summit in Berlin last night after the No votes in France and Holland on the constitution.
    Yet the crisis widened beyond the document alone, with a media offensive being mounted to bolster the euro after German officials and an Italian minister openly discussed its possible demise. In the first rumblings of a call for the franc to be reinstated, Nicolas Dupont-Aignant, a member of Mr Chirac's ruling UMP party, said: "France, Italy and Germany would be in a better state without the euro. However, I don't believe we should ditch it now.

    "But either it is reformed, and the central European Bank kick-starts growth by lowering interest rates and pursuing a more American-style monetary policy, or the euro will explode in mid-air."

    The governor of France's central bank, however, rushed to the euro's defence. Christian Noyer said that the currency was "in no way under threat" following its fall in value since the No votes of the past seven days. He dismissed as "absurd" the idea of a temporary withdrawal from the euro by individual states.

    "The euro is a solid currency which brings us a lasting guarantee of stable prices and thus the maintenance of purchasing power for our wages and savings," he told Le Parisien newspaper.

    The markets have been slowly adjusting to the possibility of the break-up of the euro, with the spread between government bonds in different countries widening.

    Last night, John Redwood, the leading eurosceptic Tory MP, said: "You can't have a single currency without a single government. They are in a mess because they have only done half of it and they are now discovering in a painful way what that means."

    The No campaign in Britain will launch a campaign tomorrow demanding a referendum on any aspects of the constitution that leaders might attempt to salvage. It will also unveil 46 new business backers, including Stuart Rose, chief executive of Marks & Spencer.

    An ICM poll for the No group found that 81 per cent of voters say that it would be unacceptable to bring in any of the proposals without a referendum in Britain first.

    Additional reporting by Henry Samuel

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...equestid=22123



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  4. #139
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    Funny old price action last night in EUR.

    Threatened 1.2340/50 (post-payrolls high) which if cleared would have been quite positive for a retest of 1.2500. Failed at that level, and I doubt anyone really knows why we are now 100 pips lower. Reuters just reports the standard fluffy techncial selling line (read, no idea!).

    Seems like we trace out a range in EUR prior to Greenspan testimony tonight, 1.2200-1.2290 should hold it until then.

    Data has been soft recently, and if Greenspan fails to sound upbeat about the economy, I still favour a bounce from here. A retracement of larger degree is still well overdue.

    Therefore find it difficult to be short EUR down at these levels - long with a stop below 1.2200 is the play at present for the next 48 hours.

  5. #140
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    Well I got stopped last night on Greenspan's more upbeat testimony. Notably the market has come back from those losses, and never really threatened the Jun 1st 1.2157 low.

    So my inclination whilst the Jun 1st low holds is to be long off these levels. Short term traders are well long dollars now (IMM stats) and although on a med-term basis any recovery is an opportunity to sell, for the short term I favour a recovery, or at worst a range 1.2150-1.2350. The nice thing about being long here, is that stops are very well defined.

    Quiet Friday data-wise ahead, the market most likely to drift within the range.

  6. #141
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Morning All

    Gann support currently holding at 2207.

    Bearish Gartley targets have been met and
    with some oscillators in minor divergence we
    could see a retracement northward at this point.

    An eventual move south may even see a continuation
    to a full grown Butterfly, and if that were to be the
    case then circa 1150 is not out of the question in the
    longer term.

    Long term positions still signaling to remain short,
    with short term positions flat awaiting directional
    indication.









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  7. #142
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    Bullish Engulfing Pattern should give a short term
    north bound move.

    Long term the indication still looks to be south.





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  8. #143
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    If you look at the 1hour chart over that last few days, imo we have now started another 5,3 pattern down.
    So far we have had a 5 down, abc retrace and now on leg 1 down again.
    Not so clear but looks the same on the GBP as well with abc complete and leg 1 complete.
    Looks the same on 4 hour as well
    Time will tell as always

    Cheers
    Slam

  9. #144
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Slam

    You must be finding that EW book interesting.
    I've read it maybe 4 times over a period of years
    and I'm still baffled in the shorter times periods.

    Another of Prechters books is "At The Crest Of The
    Tidal Wave". In that book he discusses the
    "Point Of Recognition"

    There is a point along the way in every bull (bear) market when investors suddenly seem to get the message. It always happens in the "third of third wave," the centerpoint of the entire structure.

    And another little gem...........

    "When the fifth of the fifth wave tops out, we need not ask why it has done so. Reality again, will be forced upon us. When the producers who are leeched upon disappear or are consumed, the leeches
    who remain will have lost their life support system, and the laws of nature will have to be patiently re-learned."
    (EWP, Frost & Prechter


    You've seen me mention 1150 earlier.....now that seems
    a long way down.....but it could happen.

    arco






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  10. #145
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    Thanks for that arco
    Will look for those books.
    I don't profess to know diddly about EW yet but practice makes perfect (or closer to it)
    Really enjoying a little more knowledge to throw into the pot

    Cheers
    slam

  11. #146
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Heres my EW count, which currently
    shows EUR is due for a short term north move.

    Also check out the nice divergence on the Osc.



    arco

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  12. #147
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    Overnight action has printed a Harami Cross reversal pattern.



    Pattern: reversal. Reliability: low

    Identification
    A long black day is followed by a Doji which gaps opposite the trend and is completely engulfed by the real body of the first day.

    The Psychology
    In a downtrend or within a pullback of an uptrend, a long black day occurs. The next day’s gap up comes as a surprise to the shorts who thought they were sitting on a great position the previous day. The stock closes where it opens to signify a churn day with neither the bulls nor bears showing much force after the opening gap up. Reliability of the bullish Harami Cross is low, so a strong following day is needed for confirmation.





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  13. #148
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    Possible minor support at 1963
    Eventual next target and major Gann support - 1718.














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  14. #149
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    Nice double top for a trade,see if it keeps going?.

  15. #150
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    hi miner
    sorry mate I owe you an email[:I]
    cheers
    slam

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