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Thread: EUR.USD

  1. #11
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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  2. #12
    Member skinny's Avatar
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    Hey arco whats your angle on the EUR.USD now? Last few days it seems 1.3 is a real barrier - hovering at 1.2992 on the screen now.

    Certainly making the politicos here in Europe nervous and I see Snow is trying to stem the rise (article below) but I get the feeling if it breaks 1.3 it will keep on going...

    http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...SMI&refer=home

  3. #13
    Member skinny's Avatar
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    Lol, there she goes, now 1.304 and another record high against the USD. Another interpretation of Snow's comments attached

    http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...fjQ&refer=home


  4. #14
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    USD/JPY went south first.

    Cheers
    Miner

  5. #15
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    quote:Hey arco whats your angle on the EUR.USD now?
    Skinny
    There is a bearish divergence showing at the moment, so there
    is the possibility of a retracement in the near future IMO.
    I will try to post a chart later after I receive EOD data.
    Arco



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  6. #16
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Chart as promised.

    Could we be seeing the final moves to a
    high followed by a multi-month fall?

    Major resistance above around 1.3125/56





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  7. #17
    Member skinny's Avatar
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    Cheers Arco, just trying to figure the best point to convert a bunch of euros into USDs - sent a bit through yesterday, holding off on most to see if it does get another leg up. I've read some currency strategists think 1.40 is on the cards, but from an economic point of view I'd say the longer term correction back you mention is the better 'fundamentally' justified scenario.

  8. #18
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Nice down move of max 131 pips
    creating a Dark Cloud Cover.

    That move and candle breaks a fib support and is
    bearish at least in the short term.



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  9. #19
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Its pretty much like predicting which way water will flow over the last few days. Hope you held off with some of those Euros , Skinny.

    If the USD was a stock I'd sure hate to be the CFO about now.

    So in your opinion over the next decade or so which currency if any is most likely to re-position itself as the possible successor to the mighty $$$? Its hard to imagine anything even the Euro competing at the moment but...
    Gold's an option I spose.
    hmmm
    just moved over 100 pips in a couple of hours!
    its getting more volatile[8]

  10. #20
    Member skinny's Avatar
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    Hi Peat yeah I'm holding off for now. The ECB must be getting pretty nervous I reckon through - IMO we'll see some grumbling soon and I wouldn't rule out an intervention if it goes much above 1.35...

    As for the reserve currency question I remain unconvinced there is any alternative to the USD, for the next decade anyway. It looks bad for the US now but we shouldn't forget the fact there have been larger falls in the USD in the past (early 80s). In addition, despite the current a/c and fiscal imbalances the US remains a more dynamic economy than Europe, whose growth potential is hamstrung by inflexible markets and a far worse ageing problem than the US.

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