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Thread: EUR.USD

  1. #16
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Chart as promised.

    Could we be seeing the final moves to a
    high followed by a multi-month fall?

    Major resistance above around 1.3125/56





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  2. #17
    Member skinny's Avatar
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    Cheers Arco, just trying to figure the best point to convert a bunch of euros into USDs - sent a bit through yesterday, holding off on most to see if it does get another leg up. I've read some currency strategists think 1.40 is on the cards, but from an economic point of view I'd say the longer term correction back you mention is the better 'fundamentally' justified scenario.

  3. #18
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Nice down move of max 131 pips
    creating a Dark Cloud Cover.

    That move and candle breaks a fib support and is
    bearish at least in the short term.



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  4. #19
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    Its pretty much like predicting which way water will flow over the last few days. Hope you held off with some of those Euros , Skinny.

    If the USD was a stock I'd sure hate to be the CFO about now.

    So in your opinion over the next decade or so which currency if any is most likely to re-position itself as the possible successor to the mighty $$$? Its hard to imagine anything even the Euro competing at the moment but...
    Gold's an option I spose.
    hmmm
    just moved over 100 pips in a couple of hours!
    its getting more volatile[8]

  5. #20
    Member skinny's Avatar
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    Hi Peat yeah I'm holding off for now. The ECB must be getting pretty nervous I reckon through - IMO we'll see some grumbling soon and I wouldn't rule out an intervention if it goes much above 1.35...

    As for the reserve currency question I remain unconvinced there is any alternative to the USD, for the next decade anyway. It looks bad for the US now but we shouldn't forget the fact there have been larger falls in the USD in the past (early 80s). In addition, despite the current a/c and fiscal imbalances the US remains a more dynamic economy than Europe, whose growth potential is hamstrung by inflexible markets and a far worse ageing problem than the US.

  6. #21
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    Hey guys , do any of you think the NZ$ will head higher against US$ or will it bounce of long term resistance? , any moves higher carn`t be good for the economy.
    snow

  7. #22
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    well i think its pretty obvious that the US has structural issues that will affect its currency , and that the general trend is for its currency to continue to weaken against most of its trading partners.
    That said, there has been a large adjustment already and i think from here on it will be a more volatile path.

  8. #23
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    and in support of my previous question re reserve currency
    From the news
    " The fact the Eur/Usd trend is prompting some changes in investment decisions is likely to secure the longer term footing for Euro bulls, with Sth Korea's finmin today mulling altering the foreign ccy denominated bond issuances for 2005 to Euros from Dollars. This is significant and underscores the fears that foreign Authorities do not want to hold Dlr assets, with the change to Euros suggesting Sth Korea favour holding the Single ccy."

  9. #24
    Membaa
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    .. however, within such a circumstance, who is brave enough to 'pick the winner'? when by definition the argument is saying there is emerging, or possibly will be, a replacement for the appalling badly managed global reserve currency, and it's still paper, backed only by the promises of ursury, hubris, avarice, greed and malice against the underpinning debtors (tax payers et al).

    To think the Euro will win this battle is outstandingly naieve given it's dubious birth lineage and unashamed support for the continuation of fundamentally flawed fiat currencies --- none of which have EVER survived the test of time. None.

    So --when-- the USD goes, who's prepared to bet on the Euro to replace it. Not I. There's seriously better choices; Gold, (& Silver) -in standard weights and measures-; or maybe the Dinar; or ... or ... or ...

    It is inconceiveable that the USD can sustain this obscene exportation of monetary inflation for much longer. We observe now the battle lines being drawn for competitive currency debasement; the second fundamental of a generational super-cycle Gold bull.

    JMHO of course, keen to hear yours

  10. #25
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    I have to admit it, I am in love - with Butterflies

    Heres the result of a recent Butterfly on the Eur.Usd. (Max 865 pips).

    Not bad for a little flutter!




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  11. #26
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    Well done arco,for trading it did a nice double bottom just before the last hourly,see if it can get through 273ish for a long or if it's ress and short off it,JPY and CHF are going the other way as usual.

    Cheers
    Miner

  12. #27
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    A bearish Gartley is in the wings but Medium/Long term systems
    have not triggered their trailing stop yet.

    Seed Wave targets have been met, so top pickers may be
    looking btw 3428, 3489 and 3550 as possible reversal areas.




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  13. #28
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Short entered on 21/4 at 3104......
    Looking Ok and currently +115 pips.





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  14. #29
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Interesting EW count using Neely's rules
    (from the EW forum).





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  15. #30
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Arco,

    I thought I recognised the chart!!

    This interpretation also appears on Fxstreet, posted by Karoll Inc on 18th April.
    http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/...hnicalanalysis
    I have monitored him in the past (when he posted daily on FXstreet) and found his recommendations wanting quite frankly.

    There may be something in it though, see another EW post today which calls for a low around 1.2940ish then back up above 1.31ish in further sideways consolidation.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/...menu=forecasts

    With you on the sell EUR - shorted Friday at 1.3088, bght back last night at 1.2964 under one of the signal systems I follow.

    Looking to resell early/mid 1.30's tonight if seen - own view.

    regards

    Xerof

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