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Thread: EUR.USD

  1. #441
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    Hi all
    Still sitting above support, so see how we go.

    Cheers
    Slam

  2. #442
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    Evening or should that be morning chaps,a good example of using usd/chf to trade eur/usd tonight,look at the hourlys,usd/chf broke above yesterdays high at 21.00 so you knew eur/usd would go south,it did at 22.00.

    So even though eur/usd was hard to pick usd/chf gave you an hour or so to short the you know what out of it.

    Hope that helps,it works well,was 40-50 pips in the eur/usd short,O and usd/jpy was going north to also confirm the eur/usd short.

    Cheers
    Miner

  3. #443
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    Balls on floor[B)]

  4. #444
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    There might just be a short term Butterfly in the wings from Nov 10th on the 3 hr chart, so watch for a possible retrace if we get a reversal signal in the appropriate zone.

    arco



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  5. #445
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    Currently 1.307
    Breakout!

  6. #446
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    Scalped a few pips long over night
    Now looking for a reversal

    Cheers
    Slam

  7. #447
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    The Euro express has reached its destination 3200 as indicated on this thread 4th Oct.

    http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/100406_eur.gif

    Even I'm amazed

    regards - arco





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  8. #448
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    From ABN Amro

    ’It is not the world, it is what the world might be with a minor
    adjustment or two’, introduction to Against the Day by
    Thomas Pynchon

    Something strange is happening. It seems there’s more chance of
    spotting Thomas Pynchon, the famously reclusive American
    novelist, in his local store than there is of ECB officials talking
    about recent FX moves. It follows five years in which the ECB
    talked constantly at first about why the euro should be a strong
    currency and then why it shouldn’t rise too quickly. It might be the
    ECB is pondering the appropriate response to recent moves in
    exchange rates. Certainly, the French government believes
    European policymakers shouldn’t sit and watch the euro
    appreciate. Both Dominique de Villepin, the prime minister, and
    Thierry Breton, the finance minister, have called for action to stop
    the euro’s ascent.
    Perhaps the ECB knows there is little it can do. Over the last few
    days, the dollar has fallen against a wide range of currencies. The
    currency market seems convinced the next move in US interest
    rates will be down. Equally, there are still widespread expectations
    that other central banks will continue to hike interest rates. The
    outlook is a little opaque in the UK and Japan, with a debate about
    the timing and scale of further rate hikes. But in the euro area, the
    outlook is clearer. The ECB has signalled that it will hike its
    refinancing rate to 3½% next week. And the ECB’s hawks have
    continued to worry about ’upside risks to price stability’,
    emphasizing that interest rates are still historically low, implying
    rates will rise further in 2007.
    We know the ECB isn’t indifferent to the euro’s movements. On
    previous occasions, Jean-Claude Trichet has talked about ’brutal
    moves’ in the euro, as a signal the ECB was becoming concerned.
    I don’t think the latest moves fall into this category. In late 2004, the
    ECB was particularly worried when the euro’s trade-weighted index
    rose above 108. Currently, the TWI is around 105. It’s also worth
    remembering the 2004 move was rapid and the euro gained
    sharply against sterling and the yen. While the euro continues to
    gain against the yen, this is a trend that has been in place for
    several years. More significant, the euro hasn’t gained much
    ground against sterling, which is a more important currency for
    euro-area exporters. I don’t think the euro’s recent moves will alter
    the ECB’s intention to hike rates in 2007.
    What might force the ECB to rethink? I suspect it would require a
    dramatic reassessment of the prospects for the economy.
    Currently, the ECB’s view of the global outlook is similar to ours.
    This is reinforcing their confidence on growth in the euro area. The
    major risk would be further unexpected weakness in the US
    economy, which would have two important implications: weaker US
    growth would undermine global activity and it would also force the
    dollar sharply lower. This could cause major problems in the euro
    area, particularly if the dollar’s weakness affected other bilateral
    exchange rates. For instance, it might force markets to sell sterling
    because the UK economy has similar long-term structural problems
    to the US. If Asian central banks intervene to prevent sharp
    appreciations in their currencies, the euro could be the major
    ’beneficiary’. If the euro hurtles towards $1.40, £0.70 and a TWI of
    108, the ECB might rethink. Till then, expect a Pynchonesque
    silence on the euro.

  9. #449
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    A lot of resistance just above 1.30 it seems. Its been rejected on Jan23rd/24th ; Feb 2nd ; and now Feb 8th. Triple tops are considered more meaningful than double tops.

  10. #450
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    Hi Peat

    Did you go short the Euro last night?
    cheers
    roddy

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