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14-11-2006, 05:53 PM
#441
Hi all
Still sitting above support, so see how we go.
Cheers
Slam
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16-11-2006, 12:25 AM
#442
Evening or should that be morning chaps,a good example of using usd/chf to trade eur/usd tonight,look at the hourlys,usd/chf broke above yesterdays high at 21.00 so you knew eur/usd would go south,it did at 22.00.
So even though eur/usd was hard to pick usd/chf gave you an hour or so to short the you know what out of it.
Hope that helps,it works well,was 40-50 pips in the eur/usd short,O and usd/jpy was going north to also confirm the eur/usd short.
Cheers
Miner
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16-11-2006, 07:06 AM
#443
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23-11-2006, 11:11 PM
#444
There might just be a short term Butterfly in the wings from Nov 10th on the 3 hr chart, so watch for a possible retrace if we get a reversal signal in the appropriate zone.
arco
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25-11-2006, 12:17 AM
#445
Currently 1.307
Breakout!
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29-11-2006, 09:24 AM
#446
Scalped a few pips long over night
Now looking for a reversal
Cheers
Slam
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29-11-2006, 10:11 AM
#447
The Euro express has reached its destination 3200 as indicated on this thread 4th Oct.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/100406_eur.gif
Even I'm amazed
regards - arco
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30-11-2006, 01:29 PM
#448
From ABN Amro
’It is not the world, it is what the world might be with a minor
adjustment or two’, introduction to Against the Day by
Thomas Pynchon
Something strange is happening. It seems there’s more chance of
spotting Thomas Pynchon, the famously reclusive American
novelist, in his local store than there is of ECB officials talking
about recent FX moves. It follows five years in which the ECB
talked constantly at first about why the euro should be a strong
currency and then why it shouldn’t rise too quickly. It might be the
ECB is pondering the appropriate response to recent moves in
exchange rates. Certainly, the French government believes
European policymakers shouldn’t sit and watch the euro
appreciate. Both Dominique de Villepin, the prime minister, and
Thierry Breton, the finance minister, have called for action to stop
the euro’s ascent.
Perhaps the ECB knows there is little it can do. Over the last few
days, the dollar has fallen against a wide range of currencies. The
currency market seems convinced the next move in US interest
rates will be down. Equally, there are still widespread expectations
that other central banks will continue to hike interest rates. The
outlook is a little opaque in the UK and Japan, with a debate about
the timing and scale of further rate hikes. But in the euro area, the
outlook is clearer. The ECB has signalled that it will hike its
refinancing rate to 3½% next week. And the ECB’s hawks have
continued to worry about ’upside risks to price stability’,
emphasizing that interest rates are still historically low, implying
rates will rise further in 2007.
We know the ECB isn’t indifferent to the euro’s movements. On
previous occasions, Jean-Claude Trichet has talked about ’brutal
moves’ in the euro, as a signal the ECB was becoming concerned.
I don’t think the latest moves fall into this category. In late 2004, the
ECB was particularly worried when the euro’s trade-weighted index
rose above 108. Currently, the TWI is around 105. It’s also worth
remembering the 2004 move was rapid and the euro gained
sharply against sterling and the yen. While the euro continues to
gain against the yen, this is a trend that has been in place for
several years. More significant, the euro hasn’t gained much
ground against sterling, which is a more important currency for
euro-area exporters. I don’t think the euro’s recent moves will alter
the ECB’s intention to hike rates in 2007.
What might force the ECB to rethink? I suspect it would require a
dramatic reassessment of the prospects for the economy.
Currently, the ECB’s view of the global outlook is similar to ours.
This is reinforcing their confidence on growth in the euro area. The
major risk would be further unexpected weakness in the US
economy, which would have two important implications: weaker US
growth would undermine global activity and it would also force the
dollar sharply lower. This could cause major problems in the euro
area, particularly if the dollar’s weakness affected other bilateral
exchange rates. For instance, it might force markets to sell sterling
because the UK economy has similar long-term structural problems
to the US. If Asian central banks intervene to prevent sharp
appreciations in their currencies, the euro could be the major
’beneficiary’. If the euro hurtles towards $1.40, £0.70 and a TWI of
108, the ECB might rethink. Till then, expect a Pynchonesque
silence on the euro.
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12-02-2007, 04:01 PM
#449
A lot of resistance just above 1.30 it seems. Its been rejected on Jan23rd/24th ; Feb 2nd ; and now Feb 8th. Triple tops are considered more meaningful than double tops.
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13-02-2007, 08:20 AM
#450
Member
Hi Peat
Did you go short the Euro last night?
cheers
roddy
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