EUR.USD

[peat]

seems like one should only trade in the 4 months leading up to Christmas!

[arco]

I am going to do some tests with those charts tomorrow if I get time.

Meanwhile........

Strong IFO Fails to Rally the Euro

The IFO survey printed slightly below expectations matching the same reading as last month which was just a whisker below the record highs of 108.7 set in December of 2006. The Current Assessment component was a bit lower than forecast at 112.5 vs. 113.5 as high energy costs and lackluster domestic demand tempered business enthusiasm. Overall however, the number continues to point to very healthy growth in the Euro-zone, as the high exchange rates appear to have little negative impact on European manufacturers.

Nevertheless, the EURUSD itself sold off a bit going into the number and stayed at session lows after the news was released as traders had hoped for stronger results that would convince the ECB to raise rates beyond the 4% level expected to be set in June. As it stands now, the IFO data shows no signs of overheating in the Euro-zone economy and provides ECB with ample time to consider the next policy tightening move. Going forward market attention is likely to turn away from the European manufacturing sector and instead focus on the EZ consumer especially the Germans.

Hampered by a near 30% increase in VAT at the start of this year, German consumer spending has been the weak link in the region?s economic recovery. German Retail Sales have consistently missed their mark over the past few months and that dynamic was reflected in today?s German GDP data which showed a sharp -1.4% decline in Private Consumption. The negative consumption news was offset by better than expected business investment flows, but until and unless the German consumer demand picks up markedly, the ECB is unlikely to raise rates beyond the 4% barrier. The EURUSD therefore continues to flounder in the 1.3400-1.3650 range as European data alone is not powerful enough to push the pair higher. Only a further deterioration in US fundamentals will make the euro bullish scenario of 1.3700 or higher come true.

[arco]

Morning All

Last nights short hit its 20 pip target (1.3420) at 2AM
as I lay peacefully in the land of nod.

arco

[Dazza]

Ok im back trading FX again. Have a new strategy

Will only trade EURUSD or AUDUSD
Focus is on TA only,
Using 1 hour, 15 min and 5 min charts.
Williams %, Bollening bands, slow stochastic.
Because im a very small player, will on trade 10k units at a time ie 1 pip = $1.

Saw a short today:
at 5pm on 15 min chart

opened a position at 3304, stop at 3330
just saw it went to 3275 lowest
am not to sure when to take profit

but i remember arco saying take profits wheneva possible!

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

Ok im back trading FX again. Have a new strategy

Will only trade EURUSD or AUDUSD
Focus is on TA only,
Using 1 hour, 15 min and 5 min charts.
Williams %, Bollening bands, slow stochastic.
Because im a very small player, will on trade 10k units at a time ie 1 pip = $1.

Saw a short today:
at 5pm on 15 min chart

opened a position at 3304, stop at 3330
just saw it went to 3275 lowest
am not to sure when to take profit

but i remember arco saying take profits wheneva possible!

Perhaps move your stop to 3290 to lock in some profit while letting the trade run???

[peat]

thats great Dazza
as you may or may not know I am long USD/CHF and being short Eur is effectively a v.similar trade.
The Williams R gave a perfect sell signal at 5 well done , its getting down to 100 now tho , perhaps use a trailing stop once your target is reached , heres some fib extns I drew up on this pair

[Dazza]

yeah i used the fibs to target the 50% retracement at around the 3310ish mark (i drew it from around 5pm the earlier drop from 3340 to the low of 3290 then it bounced back up again)

so i missed it and saw it heading down again hense jumped it at 3304.


Regarding the stop steve, yes i think the 3290 level is a good place to stop it at.

This first trade back in the game is going beta than i intended, target is 20 pips per trade.

Peat - regarding trailing stops whats a good strategy? I have read up on the 1R, 2R theory but yeah.

I trade with CMC markets, and i dun tink i can put an auto trailing stop loss, so will have to put a manual one instead.


any advice on how to use a proper trailing stop loss?

Regards,
Dazza
currently up +35 pips

[Dazza]

Because i am using mainly williams % since that is similar to stochoastic, i delved on peat saying it is nearing -100.

So i decided to close my position at 3288. Gained 36 pips for this trade.

Am happy with my first trade coming back into the game.

Will wait for next sell signal, im bearish on the EUR/USD with the general market sentiment of late, and another rule i learnt NEVA TRADE AGAINST THE TREND, current trend is shorting, so i will just short.

Will keep you guys updated and please do critique me along the way, i have high respect for those that post on the FX boards at ST here

[peat]

true CMC's MarketMaker doesnt offer trailing stops. Have to place them manually such is life. probably worth the effort tho if it helps maximise a trade.
good start dazza. as an alchy friend of mine says "have a juice".

[Dazza]

what kind of trailing stops do people use/suggest?