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Thread: EUR.USD

  1. #41
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Actung. Zis looks verry interesting. Ya?

    http://www.elliottwaves-online.com/d...2-EURUSD-m.gif

    But is it right..............?









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  2. #42
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Well, for what its worth, my longer term view is actually similar to that chart.

    Don't know about the fine tuning, but I believe USD will rear its head in near future and we'll see EUR down to 1.15, maybe 1.10, then it'll turn for HUGE long term rally to 1.50/1.70.

    This is based partly on long term charts published by people who have picked the 'big pictures' very well in the past, and partly on fundamentals - very simply, the USD will have a relative growth/rate advantage for a few quarters, then they will have to inflate or die, as the series of tightenings take a grip and burst a few asset bubbles. This, combined with the deficits will turn the dollar around.

    Dr G is walking a tightrope and will not deliver IMO.

  3. #43
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    yeh i'd kinda go with that xerof
    tho from a trading perspective it doesnt really help me coz i am too short term oriented.
    But do see US accomodative monetary policy of last few years as seriously coming back to bite their ****.

    I was short Eur into NFP
    a bit risky but paid off ;+

  4. #44
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Well done Peat.

    I'll be looking to sell a recovery back to 1.2880 area now. Currently no position in Euro

    Xerof

  5. #45
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    sell a recovery ??
    you mean wait for the retracement back to 2880 then short again.

    I am still short... with stop profit at 2838 but wondering about this now.

  6. #46
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    quote:9/5 - I'll be looking to sell a recovery back to 1.2880 area now.
    Nice profits for anyone who waited for this area to sell, without being stopped on the stop hunt to 1.2911, before the trade data release

    I elected to buy USD/CHF at 1.1986 instead of selling EUR, as chart looked a little clearer - end of wave 4, now in wave 5 on hourly.

    S/L at 1.2000 for now


    Xerof

  7. #47
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    i had 2 mini shorts running for last few days with stop loss on one of them at 1,2914 . So that dammed yuan reval rumour last night blew away one of them.[B)]
    But other one stayed intact for a ride down to 1.2813 where i liquidated. So sadly i only really broke even on that
    Flat now
    looking to short again at some stage tho.

    I'm finding it difficult to bank profits - they seem to get stolen back off me heheh

  8. #48
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    Hi Peat
    Same, got stopped out on 1 trade, but still got one on the go.
    I have been a bit too cautious and placed stops too close on several pairs.
    Need nerves of steel for this[:I]

    Well done with the one you banked though

    Cheers
    Slam

  9. #49
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Guys, how tight do you run your stops?

    The trouble is that unless you are very patient and wait until the optimal entry point, tight stops will usually get hit. i.e average daily range in EUR/USD is over 100 pips, so a 30 pip stop loss is more than likely to get hit more often than not.

    BTW, my view is definitely that you need to be patient, not try to be in the market for the sake of being in - you'll lose your capital in quick time

    In this game, some of the big guys spend most of their days gunning for stop loss orders..... your positions will more than likely reflect what the herd is doing (no offence intended) and attracts them like a magnet

    Either reduce the size of your position and have wider stops, or fade entry in by doing 2 units, then adding 1 or 2 more if the first lot goes your way.

    My golden rule is - never risk more than 2% of 'available capital' in any one trade. Work out how wide your stop needs to be, and that will determine the size of your trade.

    Hope this assists with those pesky stops done at daily highs/lows. Be assured, you're not alone on this....


    Xerof

  10. #50
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    Hi Xerof
    Yep spot on,[:I] Knowing and doing can be a different thing in this game (shouldn't be I know) especially for a novice like myself.
    I usually run a 50+ trailing, but may need to widen that as I have found. The trailing is what has got me on a few of the big swings.

    Thanks for the reminder to stick to my rules and remember why I entered the Pair in the first place

    Cheers
    Slam

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