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Thread: EUR.USD

  1. #571
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    morning roddy

    just a word of caution with the reversal with wave E

    if it is a triangle wave E rarely finishes on the trend line , so watch for a false downside breakout

  2. #572
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    Hi DB

    will keep an eye on false break out,whatever the eod close is i will move my stop up accordingly with about 90 pips to move will be my strategy,which would lock in 40 odd pips at present levels.

  3. #573
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    It has been a good week for being caught short...
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  4. #574
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    looking like dollar rally is dead and buried

    long eurusd and gbpusd

  5. #575
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    Hi DB

    Yeah was watching this one Friday night,the euro zone had dissapointing data come thru but
    failed to take out further lows so i exited at 4492,so will see what eventuates this week

    cheers
    roddy

  6. #576
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    morning rod

    i have a long on but with a very tight stop , i still think it might test the lower trend line before the big run north

  7. #577
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    DB

    yes looking forward to the northward move on EURO as well,
    are you short CAD,as you will be aware it had quite a good down day on the close of last week,i will look to go short on an upside.

    cheers
    roddy

  8. #578
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    Has the EURUSD hit a resistance level around 1.4640, and will this be the end of the upwards movement?
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  9. #579
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    Hi Steve
    this does not answer your question but is interesting

    two days ago i found this over at dailyfx Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist

    His chart and count was exactly the same as DB/ARCO this is what he had to say regard the EURO


    Quote {"A triangle as a 4th wave may be complete at the 2/7 low of 1.4438. Expectations are for a bullish breakout that in the coming weeks that completes wave 5 within the 5 wave advance from 1.3261. Wave E of the triangle has taken the form of a zigzag. As long as price is above 1.4438, maintain a bullish stance. It looks as if the EURUSD could explode higher any moment now, given that the rally from 1.4438 may be a series of 1st and 2nd waves -- a common pattern that occurs before a big move.

    Certain psychology attends different waves. This is an excerpt from the Elliott Wave Principle, Prechter and Frost’s classic on EW theory and application.

    "E waves in triangles appear to most market observers to be the dramatic kickoff of a new downtrend after a top has been built...intensifies bearish conviction of market participants at precisely the time that they should be preparing for a substantial move in the opposite direction. Thus, E waves, being ending waves, are attended by a psychology as emotional as that of fifth waves"

    This sounds like the current environment from a psychological standpoint.
    Risk for bulls at this point is small. The most bullish count would treat the rally from 1.4438 as a series of 1st and 2nd waves 1-2-i of 3-ii of 3. This count remains intact as long as price is above 1.4431 but there are other bullish counts that are valid as long as price is above 1.4479. As such, risk should be kept to just below 1.4479}
    cheers
    roddy

  10. #580
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    morning roddy

    its a great web site daily fx really use it a lot
    jamies pretty accurate with his calls
    i use it as a base and bring in candlestick and harmonics over the top

    having a good week from eurusd , gbpusd , eurjpy , gbpjpy 1000 pips +
    mainly acting on his elliot counts


    i guess the only problem i can see with his eurusd count is that all waves in a triangle should be three wave corrective patterns.

    if you bring up an hourly and check the wave pattern wave e looks like a 5 wave impulsive move down rather than the other waves look like 3 wave messy corrections which means the current up trend is only a correction and not the big move were anticipating to 150 +

    so even though i am long i am cautious

    if there were 2 waves down from here to the lower border of triangle it would look better imo

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