EUR.USD

[peat]

silver indicated continued usd weakness. Euro just popped a 5 min asc triangle.


back to test?

nope
too testing out -20 which is all it ever might have given too.

[roddy]

Hi All

ExitED EUR at 1.5184 last nite for 538 pip profit after Eur data came thru
i have been in since 1.4644.on this trade,my plan/strategy was to raise stops
progressively,however i went on gut feel and missed out on last nites move,as
my stop was 60 pips away so was never threatened.

today will be looking to get back in on a pullback and <stick to my rules>

cheers
roddy

[roddy]

Hi All

got back on board yesterday,but there was never a pull back as such during the day; up roughly 80 points

heres an interesting stats article regard EURO rsi from thomson.com

[Given that the Reuters forecast for 1-mth EUR/USD was last measured at 1.5200 by the median of forecasters, with the arithmetic mean at 1.5160, spot is roughly 1.3% above expectations.
Daily RSI at 79.35 has only attained these lofty heights five times prior to now in the past three years; on those occasions on two out of five the peak was the next day (Asian session onwards) and it was 15-20 pips higher, then fell 250 and 300 pips. On two occasion the top was 3-6 days later, spot ran up 110-150 pips, and then fell 300; on one occasion it peaked that day, and dropped 260 pips over the next week. That would suggest if spot breaks more than 20 pips higher it is likely to run another big fig or so.
Weekly RSI is at 71.25, has been at or above these levels on 9 occasions over a similar time frame; however with much more volatile results. On four occasions spot peaked weeks later up 400-600 pips; then fell between 700-1100 pips. Twice it peaked the next week 20-30 pips higher, 300-500 pips. On 3 occasions it peaked that week and fell 300-600 pips. One recurrent theme above is that pull backs were between 250-1100 pips; cycle gurus see next week as a temporary cycle top (2-wk pull back) which favours the "up a big fig and fade it" strategy, before further gains. Spot last 1.5360.]

cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

this one going to plan , reversal looking imminent , i think non farm may be the catalyst for a final rally higher then postion for short

[peat]

FWIW what Jyske Bank say tonight

Overnight stock markets and short term USD rates slid as US macroeconomic data showed that home foreclosures keep rising thus fuelling worries concerning the weak US economy. The 2-year US treasury yields fell to 1.45% - the lowest level in 4 years - and market participants are close to pricing in another 75 bps rate cut at the March 18th monetary policy meeting in the Federal Reserve
On the other side of the Atlantic the ECB kept rates on hold at 4% yesterday while revising forecasts for growth downwards and inflation forecasts upwards. At the press conference Governor Trichet underlined the fact that inflation is the European Central Bank’s primary target and he stated that a target rate of 4% is not inconsistent with a continued growth and job creation in the Euro area. Resultantly short term EUR rates rose and the EUR strengthened to new all time highs versus the USD. We stick to the view that a test of the 155.00 on EURUSD (4.80 on USDDKK) isn’t unlikely but with the US job report due for release this afternoon we have chosen not to issue a selling recommendation as another poor reading will be USD-supportive.
The US job report is without a doubt today’s main event. Employment dropped by 17K in January (the first drop in employment since August 2003) and employment indices for the manufacturing and employment sectors indicate that no significant upward adjustment can be expected.

[Craig3215]

as another poor reading will be USD-supportive.

Is that a typo? I would think it would be the opposite unless he's thinking that the fed will cut 75 either way

[peat]

yeh no doubt they mean Eur supportive. their prev statment was saying they couldnt recommend selling Eur as it might test 1.55 which it pretty much did.

(late reply sorry, contrary to popular belief I wasnt glued to the screen all last night, and am now paying the price with a bit of a sore head)

Paul your strategy well implemented could have done okay last night next week the Eur 1.55 PRZ question will presumably be answered more certainly.

[dumbass]

no i didnt trade it even though its following the script

i m a little unconvinced that the top is in , may sneek up 156.50 ish but i would wait for a

trade on the wave 2 retracement for the third wave down

really happy to see it go higher as it makes the correction to 145 more profitable

[dumbass]

heading to interesting levels

[dumbass]

156 50 was a significant target

star print may be significant dependant on the daily bar print tommorrow

shooting star hourlies

divergences galore

maybe just maybe top in place at 156 50

hourly channel broken

must confess to a short at 156 00 sl at 15651 for big reward if this is it