EUR.USD

[Bilo]

You may have seen this but reported in Bloomberg tonight:

``The euro is poised to fall significantly,'' said Akira Takei, who helps oversee the equivalent of $32.9 billion as general manager of international fixed-income investment at Mizuho Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``A slowdown in the U.S. will eventually filter through to Europe. The ECB will be forced to cut.''
Inflation, while ``alarmingly high,'' will slow toward year-end, ECB Governing Council member Klaus Liebscher said in comments to reporters today in Dornbirn, Austria.
Traders raised bets the bank will cut its benchmark interest rate this year, with the implied yield on the December Euribor contract falling 2 basis points to 4.15 percent. The ECB left its benchmark interest rate on hold at a six-year high of 4 percent last month.

The euro may fall to $1.5341 by the end of next week provided it weakens below $1.5599, said Kengo Suzuki, a currency strategist at Shinko Securities Co., citing technical charts.

`Double Top'
The first level of so-called support at $1.5599 represents the common European currency's average price for the past 20 days, Tokyo-based Suzuki said. The second support level at $1.5341 is the neckline of a pattern known as a double top, which forms when a currency makes two successive peaks of about the same height.

[arco]

Bilo

If you refer to my chart in post 619 (21/3) the "double top"
that Mizuho mentions is the reversal point of wave 2 in the
downleg, so this all bodes well for the scenario as per the chart.

rgds - arco

[Steve]

Seems to have turned back up following fridays announcements.

Currently have no position as waiting to see which way it contunues after the data has been digested...

[Bilo]

Seems to have turned back up following fridays announcements.

Currently have no position as waiting to see which way it contunues after the data has been digested...

Yes. I was was shorting it until the US labour data came through and it jumped eliminating most of my gains. I think the EUR/USD still has a small chance of completing the double top. If it does my gut feel was that the positive sentiment to the USD would signal the turning of the world away from talking themselves into a more significant recession. Until then we will keep oscillating.

[peat]

Bilo
Hasnt Eur already done a double top eg Mar 14 and Mar 28 ?

Right now I am thinking (c) of c which if thats correct would mean a doozy down. Eg Mar 14 - Mar 21 was 'a'. Mar 21 to Mar 28 was 'b' Since then c with April 3rd and 4th = (b) and today onwards will will be (c) of c. Breaking the Apr 3rd low at 1.55 is the first confirmation Breaking the Apr 4th high of 1.5744 will negate.

NB I am not very good at EW and my User description IS 'Leg End' but this is what I'm thinking right now.

If anyone (hi Paul!!) wants to correct my EW nomenclature please do so.


Yeh of course it was Mar 17th and Mar 31st for the tops not the 14th or the 28th (thks Arco) . and similar chgs in the rest of the post.
Pics are of course better for describing these things.

[roddy]

Hi Peat

Agree with your comments Peat i am no expert on EW but I
have been watching price action of late and it seems to me maybe EURO has run out of momentum somewhat especially after nfp last Friday which was a disastrous figure but not much happened price wise so even tho the uptrend is still intact at present the probability of a correction is more likely before it moves up again fwiw

cheers roddy

[arco]

Hi Peat/Roddy

I'm thinking 17/03 could be the '5', and 24/3 could be '(a or 1), and 31/3 could be (b or 2). Therefore the target could be (c) and perhaps 1.4950 ish

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

hi guys

its not very clear the action in the euro at the moment

i was looking for a big move down but if that was a wave 1 it looks iffy with such a deep wave 2 retracement , i reckon when it goes past 78.6 its probably not a second wave of an impulse .
the hourly also discounts this as wave 1 down is not a nice 5 wave impulse its a choppy corrective affair

so i have posted 2 possibilities
bearish is a flat or a triangle but not the big wave down i was hoping for

bullish , trendline still intact from feb (green line ) also nice hammer which could act as nice stop loss for a run higher 15511

i get where your coming from roddy as nfp did not precipitate a reactionthat it would have normally done , but still no reason to change opinion at moment in my o

[peat]

not at all looking like a strong wave down either last night OR certainly not in the last hour. :mad:

[Steve]

Not convinced by this afternoons jump, so are short EURUSD.

That will make it go higher for sure...