If we take this view of a bullish butterfly shown in the chart of Novellus below then (at the moment) we are missing b-c and going straight from C-D but so far it is has met the fibs of a 61.8% retracement of the leg from mid July 1.61 ish down to 1.23 and has also done a 78% retracement of the leg from 1.23 - 1.48 and hence so far is in line perfectly with only the last week not exactly playing the tune to the textbook.
in my chart I've drawn in dotted orange how the butterfly might look. ab projects 1.618% at 1.16 and BC projects 1.27% at 1.17 so around there would be the PTZ and the buy zone I suppose. Someone check my maths.
Also note ananda77 that technically speaking the theory only suggests the final point D as a valid buy signal and until then the pattern hasnt played out although other patterns have eg arco's bat. I'm not sure if a butterfly can survive the onslaught of a bat
Last edited by peat; 19-02-2009 at 09:36 PM.
Reason: I've changed the type of projections I've calculated and now set 1.16-17 at the PTZ
If we take this view of a bullish butterfly shown in the chart of Novellus below then (at the moment) we are missing b-c and going straight from C-D but so far it is has met the fibs of a 61.8% retracement of the leg from mid July 1.61 ish down to 1.23 and has also done a 78% retracement of the leg from 1.23 - 1.48 and hence so far is in line perfectly with only the last week not exactly playing the tune to the textbook.
in my chart I've drawn in dotted orange how the butterfly might look. needs to go to 1.43 and then 1.2
...looks like a good opportunity to go EURO long with a close above ~127 (+); target ~147
Aye
I meant X-A-B but I notice that USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are similar.
For Peat in my minds eye I expected to extend the D leg down to ~1.25 EUR/USD.
The most dramatic therefore is EUR/JPY....with up to 50% potential retracement?
noticed a three drives pattern down since 21:00 NZT last night and then a bullish gartley so laid into it with a very large trade for me (and a smaller one for the bigger pattern) and it came through pretty quick.
the most certain part of the gartley is the bit from 78% retracment back to the 38%
noticed a three drives pattern down since 21:00 NZT last night and then a bullish gartley so laid into it with a very large trade for me (and a smaller one for the bigger pattern) and it came through pretty quick.
the most certain part of the gartley is the bit from 78% retracment back to the 38%
I got the Euro in the opposite direction - it triggered overnight and hit my TP +60 sometime as I dozed completely unaware.
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Originally Posted by Bilo
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