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  1. #881
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit View Post
    Well, that's elementary my dear Snoopy, but could upstanding corporate gentlemen be reasonably accused of normalising earnings in two different ways?
    No they couldn't, but what about the management at Scott Technology?

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  2. #882
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    No they couldn't, but what about the management at Scott Technology?

    SNOOPY
    There seems, though, no motive for doing that and as a long-term shareholder, you would not suspect them of being rotters?

  3. #883
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit View Post
    There seems, though, no motive for doing that and as a long-term shareholder, you would not suspect them of being rotters?
    Anything can happen with a Dunedin based company
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  4. #884
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Anything can happen with a Dunedin based company
    Well, yes, foreigners, anything is possible. But, for the sake of focusing the investigation, I would eliminate E for the logical reason that the same income is in both terms. Also, though, I would agree with Snoopy's logic, that it cannot be T. How could T (an unusual credit) be normalised up? Therefore, we should eliminate T. That leaves us only I, D and A. So, we are making progress?
    Last edited by Biscuit; 21-05-2020 at 02:17 PM.

  5. #885
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit View Post
    Well, yes, foreigners, anything is possible. But, for the sake of focusing the investigation, I would eliminate E for the logical reason that the same income is in both terms. Also, though, I would agree with Snoopy's logic, that it cannot be T. How could T (an unusual credit) be normalised up?
    OK I'll bite. Tough trading conditions could see Scotts making losses for years. So if they made a loss for many years, they might normalise things by projecting a tax credit every year?

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  6. #886
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    Default Capitalised Dividend Valuation: FY2016 to FY2020 data

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post

    I am not sure SCT management see themselves as a 'no growth' company. But as investors I think it is reasonable to assess the company as a dividend payer only to get some idea of value.

    The calculation to work out the equivalent gross figure for the FY2020s unimputed dividend, is as follows:

    FY2020 P1/ 4.0c (18.41% imputed) = 0.736c (FI) + 3.264c (NI) = 0.736c/0.72 +3.264c = 1.022c +3.264c = 4.29c (gross dividend)

    Year Dividends as Declared Gross Dividends Gross Dividend Total
    FY2015 5.5c+2.5c N/A c + 3.47c 3.47c
    FY2016 5.5c+4.0c 7.64c + 5.56c 13.20c
    FY2017 5.5c+4.0c 7.64c + 5.56c 13.20c
    FY2018 6.0c+4.0c 8.33c + 5.56c 13.89c
    FY2019 6.0c+4.0c 8.33c + 5.56c 13.89c
    FY2020 4.0c (18.41% I) + ?c 4.29c + ?c 4.29c
    Total 61.94c

    Averaged over 5 years, the dividend works out at 61.94/5 = 12.4c (gross dividend).

    I have given some thought as to whether I should revise my sought for "gross yield" in this new environment of very low interest rates. I think that given the trade wars and the inability to move production from affected international production sites, I should not do this.

    So based on my previously selected sought after 7.5% gross yield over an historic five year business cycle window, , 'fair value' for SCT is:

    12.4 / (0.075) = $1.65

    Now using my plus and minus 20% range to get a feel how the SCT share price might behave at the top and bottom of its business cycle.

    Top of Business Cycle Valuation: $1.65 x 1.2 = $1.98
    Bottom of Business Cycle Valuation: $1.65 x 0.8 = $1.32

    At this part of the investment cycle, with conditions very favourable towards shares, I would argue that SCT shares trading at $2.30 (above the upper end of my expected range) are now overvalued by 16%.
    I am not sure SCT management see themselves as a 'no growth' company. But as investors I think it is reasonable to assess the company as a dividend payer only to get some idea of value.

    The calculation to work out the equivalent gross figure for the FY2020s unimputed dividend, is as follows:

    FY2020 P1/ 4.0c (18.41% imputed) = 0.736c (FI) + 3.264c (NI) = 0.736c/0.72 +3.264c = 1.022c +3.264c = 4.29c (gross dividend)

    Year Dividends as Declared Gross Dividends Gross Dividend Total
    FY2016 5.5c+4.0c 7.64c + 5.56c 13.20c
    FY2017 5.5c+4.0c 7.64c + 5.56c 13.20c
    FY2018 6.0c+4.0c 8.33c + 5.56c 13.89c
    FY2019 6.0c+4.0c 8.33c + 5.56c 13.89c
    FY2020 4.0c (18.41% I) + ?c 4.29c + 0c 4.29c
    Total 58.47c

    Averaged over 5 years, the dividend works out at 58.47/5 = 11.7c (gross dividend).

    I have given some thought as to whether I should revise my sought for "gross yield" in this new environment of very low interest rates. I think that given the trade wars and the inability to move production from affected international production sites, I should not do this.

    So based on my previously selected sought after 7.5% gross yield over an historic five year business cycle window, , 'fair value' for SCT is:

    11.7 / (0.075) = $1.56

    Now using my plus and minus 20% range to get a feel how the SCT share price might behave at the top and bottom of its business cycle.

    Top of Business Cycle Valuation: $1.56 x 1.2 = $1.87
    Bottom of Business Cycle Valuation: $1.56 x 0.8 = $1.25

    SCT shares were trading at $1.84 on Friday 22nd May (near the upper end of my expected range) and are IMO now fully valued (from a business cycle projected dividend income perspective). With big capital spending programs on hold for many customer companies, and dividends from more buoyant years boosting my valuation, a significant recovery in business is already priced into SCT shares as they trade today The growth story, if it still exists, has not been priced in though.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 24-06-2020 at 07:24 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  7. #887
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    Snoops ..3 requests re your puzzle ..no response

    Nice how some companies treat their shareholders with contempt ...often reflected in both company performance and share price.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  8. #888
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Snoops ..3 requests re your puzzle ..no response

    Nice how some companies treat their shareholders with contempt ...often reflected in both company performance and share price.
    Try using the phone.
    Works every time for me.

  9. #889
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Wow, I have never seen an announcement quite like this! Scott's battling to fulfill their legal obligations!

    ------------

    INTERIM DIRECTOR APPOINTMENT & INDEPENDENCE DETERMINATION

    Interim Director Appointment

    The Board has appointed Mr John Thorman as a Director effective from 1 May 2018. The Board has determined that Mr John Thorman is an Independent Director.

    Following the retirement of Mr Mark Waller, the Board commenced a search for a suitable replacement Independent Director with the appropriate skills and experience. To date the search has been unsuccessful and to ensure the Company complies with the requirements for independent and New Zealand based Directors, this interim appointment has been made.

    -----------

    The board has appointed a new director and gone on record as saying he is not up to the task! Extraordinary! I wonder if Mr Thorman will be adding 'incompetant interim director' to his resume?

    SNOOPY
    You're right Snoopy. John Thorman and incompetent director is the same word. Good for SCT but very bad to have this lightweight incompetent director on board for shareholders.
    Last edited by BAPP; 06-06-2020 at 04:10 PM.

  10. #890
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    Quote Originally Posted by BAPP View Post
    You're right Snoopy. John Thorman and incompetent director is the same word. Good for SCT but very bad to have this lightweight incompetent director on board for shareholders.
    Understand that John Thorman got sacked/asked to resign from TMF Group a few months back for questionable practices.

  11. #891
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    Interim seems a long time.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  12. #892
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Snoops ..3 requests re your puzzle ..no response

    Nice how some companies treat their shareholders with contempt ...often reflected in both company performance and share price.
    I have used the Kippenberger stonewall to my advantage. I was going to buy a parcel of shares at the time of the last result (my first SCT purchase of the Covid-19 era), which would have been a buy price of $1.84. However the uncertainty around the result made me reduce the price I was prepared to pay. So I ended up picking up a parcel at $1.65. That equates to just above my 'capitalised dividend valuation'. But that was a 'no growth' valuation. I figured all that IP contained within SCT was worth a bit of a premium.

    The Sharsies crowd seem to have taken over the market for the company today. Total turnover of $554 spread over 22 trades! That is an average trade value of just 25 bucks! Price looking weaker with a bid at $1.73. Perhaps tomorrow I will support the company -and my waistline-, by not buying lunch and instead making a 'mega-purchase' (in Sharsies terms) of SCT shares with the money saved on market!

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 24-06-2020 at 07:47 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  13. #893
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  14. #894
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Yes but it is a pity that despite the success of the automated lamb boning operation, Scott's have yet to perfect the equivalent for processing beef.

    Major shareholder JBS Australia are in trouble because the Chinese have banned beef imports from their Australian plants. However, the parent company of JBS Australia, JBS USA, are also in trouble for different Covid-19 related reasons as outlined in your reference Joshuatree. I requote the JBS USA plant closures since 31st March 2020 from your reference.

    March 31
    "JBS USA cut production at a beef facility in Souderton, Pa., on March 31."

    April 14
    "JBS USA temporarily shuttered a beef production facility in Greeley, Colo., through April 24 due to an outbreak of COVID-19 among employees and the surrounding community. The company shut its beef plant in Souderton, Pa., until April 16, after previously cutting production."

    April 21
    "JBS USA indefinitely closed its pork plant in Worthington, Minn., due to an outbreak of COVID-19 among workers."

    April 22
    "JBS USA limited operations at its beef plant in Brooks, Alberta."

    April 27
    "JBS USA announced the temporary closure of its beef production plant in Green Bay, Wis., following a coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak."

    May 5
    "JBS USA stated that it will reopen its beef processing plant in Green Bay, Wis., in phases following a coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak."

    May 7
    "JBS USA reopened a portion of its pork processing plant in Worthington, Minn., with reduced staff."

    May 21
    "JBS Canada is increasing production at its beef plant in Brooks, Alberta. The company previously scaled down to one shift on April 22 following an outbreak of COVID-19 among employees. The plant remained open with limited capacity while a nearby Cargill plant in High River, Alberta, closed for two weeks last month. Together, the two plants process nearly 70% of Canada’s beef."

    Week of June 16
    "After reporting hundreds of COVID-19 cases, JBS USA beef plant in Hyrum, Utah began operating with limited capacity in mid-June, resumed full operations June 19."

    It does read like JBS USA are over their worst. But with the way the USA is handling their Covid-19 outbreak, this might be only the first chapter.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 25-06-2020 at 09:10 AM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  15. #895
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    ^Australia is going to go through a period of low processing levels (this started months ago) as favorable weather has led to herd rebuilding.

  16. #896
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    Article in the Herald .... reporting some mixed bag: Performance bad, but outlook in some areas / regions better than in others:

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...=CE-TA-DND-BUS

    Scott Technology is seeing an uneven recovery in its global markets, with the Asia Pacific returning to normal more rapidly than in the US and Europe.

    Still, the robotics and automation firm expects its earnings in the 12 months through August to face a material hit from the Covid-19 pandemic, including the cost of restructuring its global business.
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 08-07-2020 at 08:20 AM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  17. #897
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Article in the Herald .... reporting some mixed bag: Performance bad, but outlook in some areas / regions better than in others:

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...=CE-TA-DND-BUS
    That Herald article is pretty much a cut and paste from Scott's press release of yesterday (albeit some details, like the business outlook, have been omitted from the Herald's version).

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355846

    I was pleased the share price went up 10% following that unscheduled update, even if 5c of that rise was given back today (SCT closed at $1.75). There was nothing that surprised me in the update though.
    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Underperformance from Alvey in Europe

    We don't hear much about it, but the size of Scott's business in Europe (made up of mainly Alvey) now matches, in staff numbers at least, those working in Australasia. This means the performance of the European business has a large effect on how the Scott's group as a whole is traveling. My post 717 provides evidence that Alvey's contribution since acquisition by Scotts in FY2018, as reported in AR2018, has deteriorated. Europe is having a difficult time, what with trade wars with Trump and uncertainty caused by Brexit. This could very well be the cause of a continuing significant decline in palletising, conveying and warehouse automation solutions, specialised in by Alvey, being bought and sold within Europe. The only comment in the Scott half year report letter in March, regarding Europe, was that Alvey was being integrated with Scott's German division. There was no market comment on Europe, although in the same paragraph it was noted that Transbotics in the United States was providing a good growth platform. Reading between the lines: Europe in the doldrums; No growth to speak of?
    I posted the above in July 2019, all pre-Covid-19!

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Asia and Europe looks to be the most off target. They look to be pretty much geared to one off 'materials handing' (Europe) or 'appliance line manufacturing' (Asia) projects.
    From Scott's 07-07-2020 press release:

    "Signing of new contracts for materials handling and logistics solutions with a large food customer in Europe." This is good, but, with the slow down in the USA, almost half of Scott's business is with the old Alvey now. This will keep Scott's Europe occupied, but with the greater disruption from Covid-19 'over there', I still expect Scott's in Europe will be loss making this year.

    "Recommenced the commissioning of an appliance line for Bosch in China." - Scott's never told us commissioning had stopped. I am pleased it has now restarted.

    "An agreement in China for the design and build of a new manufacturing line for one of the world’s largest appliance brands." - This is good, but it may only kick in once the Bosch appliance line is finished and will very likely flow over into the next financial year. So maybe not a great year in China for Scott's in FY2020? Hopefully not a loss, although I am not sure if Scott's have made any money in China yet (due to 'transfer pricing' (?) ).

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    'The Real Pet Food Company' has bought three new Scott 'Baldestop' bandsaws in 2017 (two in NZ and one in Australia) for $NZ89,000 each. One replaced a three month old bandsaw that cost $NZ25,000.

    This is a good example of a customer willing to pay top dollar to obtain a safer working environment. The replacements were the response to a staff member losing the tip of a finger while using the old equipment.
    "Ongoing interest in Scott’s 'Bladestop' technology with the recent signing of a deal for the supply of 30 'Bladestop' machines to JBS USA, the world’s largest protein producer."

    It is good that JBS are continuing to support Scott's by purchasing their products. But 30 'Bladestop's are worth about: 30 x $89,000 = $2.7m. A good order. But one fully automated boning room (which does not yet exist for beef remember) would be worth around $50m. This is where the real meat industry money is, not 'Bladestop'. Nevertheless, I hope the new sales staff in the USA are able to broaden the market for 'Bladestop' in the USA over there beyond Scott's own shareholder base!

    While pleased to read the announcement, I see it as a springboard into FY2021. I still expect SCT to lose money this year (FY2020).

    "An agreement for an industrial automation solution for a company providing services to the defence sector."

    Providing the capability for weapons manufacture? I hope not!

    "Cashflow management remains a priority while demand rebuilds to pre-COVID-19 levels." - Translation: No final dividend in December.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 02-08-2020 at 08:40 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  18. #898
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post

    From Scott's 07-07-2020 press release:

    "Signing of new contracts for materials handling and logistics solutions with a large food customer in Europe." This is good, but, with the slow down in the USA, almost half of Scott's business is with the old Alvey now. This will keep Scott's Europe occupied, but with the greater disruption from Covid-19 'over there', I still expect Scott's in Europe will be loss making this year.

    "Recommenced the commissioning of an appliance line for Bosch in China." - Scott's never told us commissioning had stopped. I am pleased it has now restarted.

    "An agreement in China for the design and build of a new manufacturing line for one of the world’s largest appliance brands." - This is good, but it may only kick in once the Bosch appliance line is finished and will very likely flow over into the next financial year. So maybe not a great year in China for Scott's in FY2020? Hopefully not a loss, although I am not sure if Scott's have made any money in China yet (due to 'transfer pricing' (?) ).

    "Ongoing interest in Scott’s 'Bladestop' technology with the recent signing of a deal for the supply of 30 'Bladestop' machines to JBS USA, the world’s largest protein producer."

    It is good that JBS are continuing to support Scott's by purchasing their products. But 30 'Bladestop's are worth about: 30 x $89,000 = $2.7m. A good order. But one fully automated boning room (which does not yet exist for beef remember) would be worth around $50m. This is where the real meat industry money is, not 'Bladestop'. Nevertheless, I hope the new sales staff in the USA are able to broaden the market for 'Bladestop' in the USA over there beyond Scott's own shareholder base!

    While pleased to read the announcement, I see it as a springboard into FY2021. I still expect SCT to lose money this year (FY2020).
    Interesting article referenced on another thread about the global robotics market.

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/us-chi...al-robot-race/

    "What about 2020? With Covid-19, it will be bad. Perhaps as bad as 2009, when the Lehman shock led to a 47% decline in total worldwide industrial robot installations. Even if installations are down by only half that amount it would still be a major setback for the industry."

    "Fanuc, Japan’s top pioneering robot maker, reported a 19% year-on-year sales decline in the three months to June and is girding for a 17% decline in the fiscal year ending March 2021. This comes after a 20% drop last fiscal year."

    Unlike the manufacturers referred to in that article, Scott's tend use robots from other manufacturers rather than make them. IOW Scott's expertise is in developing project solutions using robotics rather than making the building blocks for other robotic solutions providers to use. The meat industry should be well motivated to continue with their automation projects, given the spatial distancing issues that appear to have caused infections in plants in Australia and the USA. But that combined two year decline of 44% at Fanuc for the year ended 31st March 2021 is scary. That 'light on the horizon' for Scott's seems a little further away today.

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

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    Good news!

    FURTHER CONTRACT WIN STRENGTHENS SCOTT TECHNOLOGY’S POSITION IN MINING SECTOR

    Automation and robotics solutions provider, Scott Technology (NZX: SCT), has been awarded a further multi-million dollar contract by Rio Tinto to provide and commission the equipment for a new sample preparation and analysis laboratory at the Robe Valley mine site in Western Australia.

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    That saves me a bit of work....was about to look up announcements to see what had driven this morning's rise. Nice to see them getting more work outside of the meat works etc.

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