sharetrader
Page 5 of 113 FirstFirst 1234567891555105 ... LastLast
Results 41 to 50 of 1130
  1. #41
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,314

    Default

    [QUOTE=Snoopy;

    This thread starts with 'out to lunch' suggesting SCT was a 'screaming buy' at somewhere near $3 on 30/04/2004. Yet now the share price has retreated to a '$1.82 buy and $1.85 sell' spread, this same share barely gets a mention on this forum. For those who like the FA statistics $1.82 today represents an historic PE of 15. That is greater than the 12.5 PE when SCT was regarded as a 'screaming buy' at $3 two and a half years ago. Consequently I don't think SCT is a 'screaming buy' at close to $2. I am buying more for portfolio rebalancing purposes. But if you believe that exporting from NZ has any future then I think SCT is worth accumulating at around this $2 level.
    Kilpatrick selling out of 170,000 odd shares during 2007 has worked well for me because I have been buying SCT shares in trickles all year - boosting my own holding in this company by something like 80% in the process. My average purchase price of these 'new' shares was $2.07. That doesn't look very clever if you consider the current buy price is $1.82. But that is assuming that I could have bought the number of shares I did buy at 'todays price' of $1.82. And that would not have been possible. It also ignores the dividends that I have accumulated during the year, which makes my 'theoretical loss' (it was a 'theoretical profit' two weeks ago) much less painful. I know that I couldn't have bought my shares at $1.82 because it has taken over a month for me to buy my 'November tranche', a very modest number of shares on market at a price around $2.

    So when do I expect my profit margin on my latest SCT acquisition to rise into the black again? I have no idea. But I am prepared to wait. And if the market weakens further I am prepared to buy more shares in the interim. I don't know if buying SCT shares at $2ish today will look clever in two and one half years time or not. But I think it is more likely to look clever than buying SCT at $3 looks now, viewed with two and one half years of hindsight.

    SNOOPY

    discl: hold SCT[/QUOTE] SNOOPY fundamental analysis is as usefull as tits on a bull as you keep proving. Explain where you got it wrong then tell us why you did not react to reduce your substantial losses sooner. Macdunk

  2. #42
    Senior Member Nitaa's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    937

    Default Someones hacked into Duncan Macgregors ID

    I cant believe this is coming from you Duncan. Buying on a downtrend? All this time you been giving Snoop Dog heaps by ignoring the TA. You also said you were going to stay out of the market as the recession is bringing too much uncertainty. Your breaking your rules by buying illiquid stocks. It just keeps getting worse. This is not your wife positing is it?

    Duncan my dear friend. Either your telling porkies or someone has hacked your login ID.

    Are you now... forget "TA" it doesnt work for me but "FA" is where its at?

    Great to have you back posting but you have blown me away by your about turn.

    Nita.. keeping it real as always

  3. #43
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,314

    Default I have gone fishing nita

    NITA, no downturn from me my friend i have been out the market since jan 2008 and expect to remain out for some considerable period. I look at todays market with great concern. My money is in material assets which will hold its value after the next market shock which will be inflation. Hope to be proved wrong this time but 100% correct to the day last time.

  4. #44
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,086

    Default

    macdunk , you run the risk of having your mountain of cash inflated away
    What material assets are you going to buy?
    I suggest you get yourself some scott tech, telecom and rest brands shares, pronto

    have an enjoyable easter weeekend

    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  5. #45
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,221

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by duncan macgregor View Post
    SNOOPY fundamental analysis is as usefull as tits on a bull as you keep proving. Explain where you got it wrong then tell us why you did not react to reduce your substantial losses sooner. Macdunk
    Got it wrong? Did I not write....

    "Consequently I don't think SCT is a 'screaming buy' at close to $2."

    That statement was correct, with hindsight. After that I wrote:

    "If you believe that exporting from NZ has any future then I think SCT is worth accumulating at around this $2 level."

    The just released sixth month report for SCT showed they had lost a couple of big orders thanks to whole projects being cancelled as a result of the credit crunch. SCT is basically 100% export orientated as regards profits. So it follows that if all export sales are really struggling, then SCT is not worth $2. Looks like I was right again.

    "So when do I expect my profit margin on my latest SCT acquisition to rise into the black again? I have no idea."

    Another accurate comment.

    "And if the market weakens further I am prepared to buy more shares in the interim."

    ....which is exactly what I did.

    "I don't know if buying SCT shares at $2ish today will look clever in two and one half years time or not. But I think it is more likely to look clever than buying SCT at $3 looks now, viewed with two and one half years of hindsight."

    That post was made right near the end of CY2007. What I said means that mid way through 2010 I don't think it is likely the share price will be below $1.32 (a 1/3 decline from $2, just as $2 is a 1/3 decline from $3). Whether I am right or not remains to be seen.

    Macdunk, I can't see anything in that post you quoted that I would take back or apologize for. The only problem you can find is that the SCT share price has not gone relentlessly upwards since I made the original post. Since I had no intention of cashing out of this share at this time the declining share price is not a problem. It is in fact an opportunity I have taken advantage of by buying many more shares

    SNOOPY

    discl: hold SCT
    Last edited by Snoopy; 27-07-2009 at 09:43 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  6. #46
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,314

    Default

    SNOOPY, You want me to tell you where you got it wrong do you.
    1, Flawed buy analysis. The share price is lower today than it was ten years ago making your initial buy based on fundamentals a mistake.
    2, You bought more every time the share price dropped increasing your exposure to your first mistake.
    3, You had no sell policy not even a basic stop loss which has taken a great slice of your stake down the gurgler.
    4, You couldnt even see the more than obvious downtrend coming when all the basic fundamental signs were screaming danger.
    5,Your biggest mistake of all is being unable to admit that you were mistaken in the first place.
    6, It is not only SCT or RBD or even TUA or TEL where you got it wrong its nearly your whole hand making your analysis on this site a complete danger to anyone that listens.
    The market dictates the company your mistake is getting the cart in front of the horse.
    Macdunk

  7. #47
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,221

    Default

    The redevelopment of SCT's old Dunedin site is progressing. Did SCT sell this site or was it just leased?
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  8. #48
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,221

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by duncan macgregor View Post
    SNOOPY, You want me to tell you where you got it wrong do you.
    1, Flawed buy analysis. The share price is lower today than it was ten years ago making your initial buy based on fundamentals a mistake.
    2, You bought more every time the share price dropped increasing your exposure to your first mistake.
    Macdunk, you have to view my investment in SCT in relation to the part of my portfolio that is plugged in to NZs export base. The first question you need to ask is:

    "Do you believe NZ has any future as a manufacturing exporting nation?"

    If the answer to that question is yes, you need to look for areas where NZ is at a competitive advantage compared to the rest of the world. One area where NZers do seem to do well is in niche market engineering sectors, where they have sufficient size to be a commanding player in that market. Such a company is Scott Technology and their appliance production line production systems. Globally Scott's are the biggest player in this niche.

    OK, so once you are in the exporting sector you can ride the good times (as I did). However, when you are invested in a company with so many orders that it swamps your ability to supply, you have to ask yourself:

    "Would I not be better investing in a different company which has the ability to outsource manufacturing, yet retain enough of a "in house" to maintain their production rates in times of lower business activity?"

    Then you should ask yourself:

    "Would it not be better to invest in a different company where their main asset was actually NZ developed intellectual property, that is much harder for overseas competitors to mimic?"

    Thirdly you have to ask yourself:

    "The world is in a time of commodity shortages, should China's growth path resume. Perhaps I would be better off investing in a different company that is more attuned to servicing the mining industry?"

    Following this you need to act on these potential changes to make sure that your overall NZ export operator strategy is 'up to date'.

    Indeed over the last ten years I have modified my NZ exporter investor strategy accordingly.

    In real terms this amounted to doing absolutely nothing. That is because all of the 'different companies' that I referred to above are one and the same, the evolving Scott Technology. It has not been necessary to do any buying and selling of shares because management have been changing the company for me. Macdunk, you don't seem to comprehend that the company of ten years ago and the company today are not one and the same.

    Your analysis that the price of ten years ago is higher than the price quoted on the market today is flawed for two reasons.

    1/ It is not possible for me to accumulate my stake at the 'market price'. There just aren't the number of SCT shares I have now on offer at any one time.
    2/ The price of the share ten years ago bares little resemblance to the price I actually paid for my shares, which is substantially below that figure.

    Finally you have to ask yourself is there any manufacturing exporter that has done better than SCT over the last ten years? An obvious example might be Fisher and Paykel Healthcare. But what you have to remember is that ten years ago there was only one Fisher and Paykel, and over that time Fisher and Paykel Appliances (the other half of the deal) has been a disaster.

    So there is your challenge. Can you name any NZX listed manufacturer that has outperformed SCT over the last ten years, or more correctly *my* investment in SCT which has approximately halved (if you believe the market price)? If you can't find anything better than that, then you would have to conclude that galling as my return is (at the moment) I have put my 'export' money in the right place.

    Of course you might argue that no New Zealand investor should ever invest in an NZX listed manufacturing export business. That is another argument entirely.

    3, You had no sell policy not even a basic stop loss which has taken a great slice of your stake down the gurgler.
    Not so. I was all set to sell out at $4.

    4, You couldn't even see the more than obvious downtrend coming when all the basic fundamental signs were screaming danger.
    You have a funny idea of danger Macdunk. I was listening and I didn't hear any 'fundamental screaming' as you put it. And neither is SCT in any significant danger now

    The market dictates the company your mistake is getting the cart in front of the horse.
    The market does dictate the future of any company, yes. But that 'market' is not the sharemarket.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 14-04-2009 at 10:26 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  9. #49
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,221

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve View Post
    The redevelopment of SCT's old Dunedin site is progressing. Did SCT sell this site or was it just leased?
    Try your own answer to my question of May last year Steve

    "Are you based in Dunedin Steve? If so how much do you reckon the old site is worth?"
    (SNOOPY)

    "Unfortunately, SCT rent the premises from a company associated with Graeme Marsh who was involved with SCT for years." (Steve)

    There was certainly nothing in the latest half year annual report relating to any property windfall. Indeed, I think the move cost SCT some big dollars.

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  10. #50
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,221

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Try your own answer to my question of May last year Steve

    "Are you based in Dunedin Steve? If so how much do you reckon the old site is worth?"
    (SNOOPY)

    "Unfortunately, SCT rent the premises from a company associated with Graeme Marsh who was involved with SCT for years." (Steve)

    There was certainly nothing in the latest half year annual report relating to any property windfall. Indeed, I think the move cost SCT some big dollars.

    SNOOPY
    I hate it when that happens! :o It's never good when the memory starts slipping...
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •