sharetrader
Page 55 of 113 FirstFirst ... 54551525354555657585965105 ... LastLast
Results 541 to 550 of 1130
  1. #541
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    284

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    It is interesting that as SCT hits $2, nothing has really changed since capital raising time when some shareholders were balking at paying $1.39. Hopefully those shareholders are off the register now. Personally I think the medium term prospects of SCT are very bright. But I don't see any quick turnaround in profit fortunes here. So in the short term I think SCT is staring to look overdone at $2. Maybe new shareholders are willing to take a longer term view?

    SNOOPY
    The manner in which the price has forged upwards over the last 3 weeks suggests strong conviction on the part of those buying. Hindsight alone will tell whether prices at 200 plus are overdone.



    Maybe new shareholders are advantaged by the ability to cast aside the baggage of SCT’s past, and are focussed on its future with $25 million in the bank and intellectual property aplenty to be exploited?



    Perhaps they see JBS as bringing an overdue boardroom emphasis on seizing opportunities and aggressively pursuing growth prospects, rather than wallowing in nostalgia about SCT”s 102 year history and interminably worrying about helping large shareholders cash up their holdings?



    Perhaps they envisage the new model SCT in 5 years or so as somewhat like FPH is today, a market darling after a series of pleasing results exploiting self-researched and -developed high tech products (though perhaps not quite with a PE ratio in the 50s)?

  2. #542
    Investor
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    5,643

    Default

    Strong buying today...136k shares @VWAP of 1.999....

  3. #543
    Senior Member Marilyn Munroe's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Hollywood
    Posts
    920

    Default

    From the Otago Daily Times;

    "Pukeuri boners get robotic workmates"

    https://www.odt.co.nz/business/farmi...otic-workmates

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Diamonds are a girls best friend.

  4. #544
    Investor
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    5,643

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Marilyn Munroe View Post
    From the Otago Daily Times;

    "Pukeuri boners get robotic workmates"

    https://www.odt.co.nz/business/farmi...otic-workmates

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Thanks kindly for that MM.

    Alliance could be the customer Scott referring to from their announcement from 2nd Jun as per extract from the release:

    "Re:
    MARKET INFORMATION UPDATE
    Scott Technology Ltd (“Scott”) has been made aware that an existing customer engaged in possible
    equity fundraising has advised investors that a use of some of the funds being raised is to purchase
    machinery from Scott.
    Scott has a heads of agreement with this customer for an initial supply of equipment for a total
    consideration of approximately NZ$5 million. Scott considers that the initial supply is within the normal
    course of trading. However, Scott is in discussion with respect to subsequent orders over the next 18
    months which, if eventuate, would result in a significant lift in Scott’s total revenue over that period"

  5. #545
    Investor
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    5,643

    Default

    Good accumulation happening around current price level, someone might have good clue about year end numbers.

    Guess will have to until next month when they announce FY results, unless they're compelled to give an update before that.

  6. #546
    Investor
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    5,643

    Default

    https://nzx.com/companies/SCT/announcements/289575

    Anyone from this forum happen to be here by any chance...appreciate your further input on this.

  7. #547
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    https://nzx.com/companies/SCT/announcements/289575

    Anyone from this forum happen to be here by any chance...appreciate your further input on this.
    I didn't go to the presentation. But there are a few gems to be drawn from the slides released to the NZX.

    We already know that the total number of shares now (post JBS capital injection) on issue is 74.788m

    Previous Substantial holder, Fisher Funds, sold out as previously announced.

    Oakwood Securities (associated with Graeme Marsh) now owns 7.36% of those 74.788m shares.

    0.0736 x 74.788m = 5.50m shares

    Prior to the 1:8 rights issue, Oakwood held 5.379m shares. Oakwood would have been entitled to 0.672m rights. It looks like they only took up 0.121m rights. So it looks like Marsh no longer has the capital nor the desire to support Scott Technology's continued expansion. No real surprise there as at capital raising time Chairman McLauchlan said the major shareholders at the time wanted to 'sit back'.

    Field and Palmer, trustees of the Urquart family trust, have 2.68% of the shares.

    0.0268 x 74.788 = 2.000m shares

    Prior to the 1:8 rights issue, Urquart family trust held 3.399m shares. So it looks like the Urquart trust sold some 1.4m shares to JBS. Once again, no real surprise there as the Urquart family trust have been selling down for some time. What is a surprise is that they have decided to keep 2m shares and stay in , albeit at a much reduced level.

    Similarly 'Southern capital' now hold 0.0068 x 74.788m = 510,000 shares (the same as before the capital raising).

    So all in all, a miserable response to the cash issue from the four previously largest shareholders. With the share price now up by more than 50% since the capital raising, the trustees of all those holdings must be kicking themselves. Proof, if any was needed, that the so called 'smart money' doesn't always get it right.

    I saw no mention made of the much touted 'automated milking system' that is on the brink of commercialisationin in the Forsyth-Barr presentation . You could read between the lines that with the drop in milk prices worldwide, this development partnership could be dead.

    Nevertheless $25m of real cash is in the SCT bank cash account. That should be enough to more than cover the upcoming final dividend that I will call at 4cps.

    0.04 x 74.788 = $3m

    4cps final will keep total dividend for the year at 8cps, the same as last year.

    Actually that $25m to spend on 'one or two' acquisitions is a bit of a worry. Do SCT have the management nous to spend it wisely?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 23-09-2016 at 02:59 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  8. #548
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default FY2017 Profit Forecast: Iteration 1

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Fast forward to FY2016. Taking the base level profit of FY2015 (adjusted to $4.725m NPAT) how do I see things developing over the current year?

    Amount Description Calculation
    $4.725m Baseline Profit FY2015
    +$0.800m Interest saved from recapitalisation $1.132m x 0.72
    +$0.194m Interest earned from surplus capital $9m x 0.03 x 0.72
    +$0.226m HTS-110 elimination of losses $2.1m x 0.15 x 0.72
    +$1.490m Meat industry Robotics (incremental) ($15m-$1.201m) x 0.15 x 0.72
    -$1.000m Appliance Production Lines Based of $13m sales, down yoy
    +$1.075m MAR sales annualisation adjustment (sales steady) $1.236m-$0.161m
    -$0.230m Adjust profit between FY2014 acquistion year & FY2015 peak
    $7.280m Forecast NPAT Total

    Other Assumptions:

    1/ No change in the contribution of Rocklabs YOY.
    2/ No benefit from decrease in exchange rate YOY. I am assuming that due to the weak mining and appliance line outlook some discounting will be required to acquire overseas work.
    3/ No benefit from the new 'scale' that new capital was meant to bring. Benefits from scale should come. But I am not expecting any in the next twelve months.

    In theory (assuming scheme of arrangement is approved by the court) there are now 74.8m shares on issue.

    So NPAT eps for FY2016 will be: $7.28m/74.8m = 9.7cps

    Last year the dividend was 8cps. So there is room to hold the dividend steady on the increased number of shares. Good for those pensioner shareholders (7.8% gross yield).

    At $1.42, SCT trades on a perspective PE of $1.42/9.7 = 14.5

    Given the hoped for growth potential with JBS as a partner, this sounds about right. However, the market will be watching to see some tangible benefit from the 'scalling up' of operations. That will take a couple of years to emerge, and one year for the market to price it in. Consequently I see little share price movement over the next 12 months.

    Snoopy's recommendation: hold at $1.42, buy only on weakness.

    Criticisim welcome :-)
    Well that was a clanger of a recommendation wasn't it? 'Buy only on weakness', below $1.42, and the price has increased steadily to $2.18! Yet maybe not so bad as there was a period between December 2015 and mid March 2016 when SCT shares were available sub $1.40. I hope some of you out there got some. The 2016 result has not yet been released. But it is already history, and it is now time to turn our attention to FY2017.

    Divisional Profit (NPAT) Explanation
    Superconductor Magnets $0m (Increased sales offset by costly new HQ)
    Meat Industry Robots $6.400m (20% NPAT margin on $32m sales, equiv 4 big installations)
    Appliance Production Lines $2.099m (Mirror of FY2013 segment result based on $16.3m turnover)
    Mining Services $2.981m (Adjusted from FY2014 segment result based on $17m turnover)
    Robotworx USA $0.817m (From FY2014 acquisition year)
    Interest From Cash Balance $0.630m (based on 3.5% taxed at 28%)
    less Head Office Costs ($3.500m) (Unallocated FY2014 costs +30%)
    Total $9.427m (addition)

    With 74.788m shares on issue this gives a projected 'eps' of 12.6cps

    At $2.18, SCT is on a projected PE ratio for FY2017 of 17.3.

    That sounds reasonable, although there must be some execution risk and currency headwinds (we have really gone up against Australia) to overcome. So maybe the huge run up in share price made by Mr Market is justified? I guess time will tell!

    SNOOPY

    discl: holder
    Last edited by Snoopy; 11-03-2017 at 10:04 AM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  9. #549
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default Snoopy sells down -again!

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Referring to my post 160, the actual profit for FY2012 of $5.5m was a little shy of my prediction of $7m. Nevertheless Mr Market didn't mind and the share price has been bid up to $2.60 today, a post dividend high.

    There are now 40,983,443 shares on issue. So historical earnings per share is now 13.4c. At $2.60 this represents a PE of 19.4. This looks close to full value to me based on past results. So over the last week I have taken the opportunity to 'peel another layer off the onion'. Despite what I sold being barely an economical parcel to sell it has taken a week to get my order through. There are real pitfalls in holding a share where the liquidity is as low as this one! My back of the envelope calculation now shows that I have an average entry price of just 70c.

    SCT has been a sensationally good investment for me, and I expect it will continue to be so into the future. In a years time there is every chance that $2.60 will not look so expensive. Yet I will sleep a little better at night now knowing that my portfolio has been brought more into balance.
    I thought I had better come clean for all you 'Scot-tech-eers' out there. I confess I have been selling some SCT over the past couple of weeks. Got an average price of $2.10, which is 50% more than the same money I put into the rights issue shares just under a year ago. It looks like that if I had waited, I might have got a few cents more. But with the dividend yield diminishing, time to take some risk off the table and redeploy some of that capital elsewhere. Don't worry. I am still a 'Scot-tech-eer' at heart and intend to hold the balance of my shares (which is most of them). Average holding price is now 65c. So that is an improvement in comparison with my 2012 sell down four years ago. ' Buy into weakness' 'sell into strength' is my mottow with this thinly traded share!

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 23-09-2016 at 06:20 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  10. #550
    Investor
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    5,643

    Default

    https://nzx.com/companies/SCT/announcements/289790

    Looks like the FY results are going to be great plus the guidance for future with these kind of announcements. The new owners JBS are onto a winning strategy here...

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •